A smattering of predictions for the 12 months to come:
The Holyrood election will be won by Labour, at least insomuch that it will gain the highest number of seats. There is little room for gains on the regional list for the SNP and they look vulnerable in too many constituencies. Furthermore, as impressive as he is, Alex Salmond has served as SNP leader for longer than Thatcher or Blair served for their respective parties and I suspect enough people will believe that he has had his time to deny him a second victory.
The Labour minority Government will get off to a stuttering start and lack a sense of purpose from the beginning. An early introduction of student fees will lead to similar riots (update: I mean ‘protests’) north of the border as was witnessed south of the border.
The AV referendum will be won by the ‘Yes’ team. I’ve sensed a shift in fortunes for the Yes2AV campaign recently and they seem to have the impetus at the moment. I suspect that to continue and most will come to realise that to support FPTP is to defend the indefensible.
The Calman proposals will lead to a dog’s dinner of a Scotland Bill and support for Scottish independence will noticeably creep upwards as a direct result of this, and from an increasing disregard for the UK’s direction under the current Coalition.
Vince Cable will voluntarily leave the Cabinet and Nick Clegg will cling onto the coalition agreement through the Lib Dems’ darkest hours of this parliamentary term.
The markets will recover fuelled by a City boom borne out of relatively cheap share prices and smart trading given continued volatile global markets. This will mask a world of pain as super-profits for our largest companies will cover the tax receipts of the many small companies and sole traders that have to go out of business. An entrenched political deadlock will ensue where ‘the right’ will point to increased private sector tax receipts and ‘the left’ will point to anecdotal evidence of further inequality and a widening gap between rich and poor.
Annabel Goldie will step down as party leader after another lacklustre campaign, to be replaced by a Murdo Fraser coronation due to no other Tory Young Turk fancying the job at this time.
Scotland will reach the Rugby World Cup Final (and get thumped by the All Blacks).
The Edinburgh trams will start to run and there will be a near-instant change in popularity for the project.
Lord Salmond will take his place in the House of Lords amid much controversy, within and outwith his party.
#1 by Indy on January 6, 2011 - 10:41 am
Your last prediction – LOL. There is as much likelihood of that happening as there is of him flying to the moon!
#2 by Jeff on January 6, 2011 - 11:05 am
One has to finish with a bit of a showstopper 😉
#3 by Paul on January 6, 2011 - 10:53 am
I’m trying to decide which of your last 3 predictions is most likely. Weirdly, going for the rugby one.
#4 by A Student on January 6, 2011 - 10:56 am
I predict that higher VAT and inflation, coupled with higher petrol, transport, heating and food price rises (above inflation), will lead to widespread anger and possibly the fall of the coalition. (when coupled with the cuts and political factors such as the referendum failing & May elections)
It’s going to be a bumpy year.
I dearly hope we (students) don’t ‘riot’ like you say, but i do hope we scare the shit out of Scottish Labour pre-election so that they don’t screw the next generation to pay for the failures of the market for the few, by the few.
#5 by Jeff on January 6, 2011 - 11:18 am
Yep, ‘riot’ was the wrong choice of word, protest is much better (and hopefully more fitting if fees do go up as they did down here).
I agree prices of fuel, VAT and food etc will cause consternation but how do you envisage it leading to the fall of the coalition? Lower poll ratings will, if anything, bind the Lib Dems and Tories together in a defensive huddle I reckon.
Unless of course the lefty Lib Dems and righty Conservatives manage to pull the two parties apart if it all gets really bad.
And good point about the power that the students have before the election to press all parties to do the right thing with further education. Pledges will be out in force I reckon!
#6 by Gaz on January 6, 2011 - 12:05 pm
At present, I am inclined to agree that Labour will emerge as the biggest party. However, I don’t think this will happen because they will win seats from the SNP as I don’t see any constituencies changing hands between these parties as things stand.
Labour is now ahead in the polls because the LibDem vote has collapased to them. The SNP vote is steady (at least) compared to 2007 thus to win SNP seats, Labour need to squeeze that LibDem vote in those seats. Unfortunately for them there is very little LibDem vote to squeeze in these ‘vulnerable’ SNP constituencies and the positive impact of 4 years of effective SNP incumbents in Gibson, Coffey, Constance, Fitzpatrick et al would surely outweigh this anyway.
If the election were held now, I suspect the SNP would stand still but, crucially, it would trade a few list seats for constituencies from the LibDems in the Highlands and North-East. This would then allow Labour to pick up additional seats on those regional lists thus edging it past the SNP total.
However, I suspect that things have a way to run yet and I wouldn’t dismiss the prospect of a larger SNP group just yet.
#7 by Jeff on January 6, 2011 - 12:49 pm
“However, I don’t think this will happen because they will win seats from the SNP as I don’t see any constituencies changing hands between these parties as things stand.”
I’m not saying they will definitely switch but, using the new boundaries, you’ve got to admit that Stirling, Cunninghame North, Almond Valley, Falkirk West, Edinburgh East, Glasgow Southside, Western Isles and Kilmarnock even are at least vulnerable to Labour gains. Three of these constituencies are already Labour notionals, Edinburgh East by a large 545 votes.
It is the regions where I think the SNP is at its most precarious as winning 5 in one region is a tall order. Of course, if some constituencies fall then there is not likely to be a regional seat to fall back on (Cunninghame North, Glasgow Southside, for example).
I agree about the Lib Dem squeeze and I certainly agree with your fine point about Highlands/North East and SNP gains ironically letting Labour in but there were 1,810 Lib Dem votes in Cunninghame North for example and a notional majority of 40 votes. I wouldn’t say that equates to “very little Lib Dem vote to squeeze” if you ask me.
All too early to call though, as you say Gaz. And as per my last post, I agree there’s still a fine chance that the SNP can emerge with even more seats than they currently hold.
#8 by cynicalHighlander on January 6, 2011 - 6:20 pm
“The markets will recover fuelled by a City boom”! I wouldn’t bank on it Zeno’s Recovery – Looking forward with fury to 2011
‘Trams and Salmond’ doubtful and never. The rest are all plausable roll on May.
#9 by Doug Daniel on January 6, 2011 - 11:57 pm
Here’s my predictions:
May: Labour win the Scottish Election, despite a gaping void of ideas and quite possibly the weakest front bench team in the history of world politics
June: Iain Gray accidentally declares war on Montenegro, Norway, Iceland, Ireland and every other small nation in Europe
August: Having spent two months pretending the War of Small European Nations wasn’t happening, BBC Scotland finally acknowledges the war, but tells viewers that the other countries started it
Or something like that. Hopefully not, mind.
#10 by Jeff on January 7, 2011 - 10:31 am
Ha, very good.
More importantly though, will Scotland qualify for Euro 2012!?
#11 by Malc on January 7, 2011 - 11:35 am
No.
#12 by Doug Daniel on January 8, 2011 - 3:06 pm
Only if Darren Fletcher starts getting played in his proper position. Oh, and Kenny Misser (whose proper position is, of course, in the stands). So as Malc says, “no”.
#13 by Colin on January 7, 2011 - 11:19 am
Students didn’t riot against Labour’s introduction of fees in 1997, so what makes you think they’d do it this time?
#14 by Jeff on January 7, 2011 - 1:39 pm
It’s Tories that are doing it this time.
Shouldn’t make a difference, but there you go…