Five days after the Brexit result was announced, and less than two months after the Holyrood vote, we have a full Scottish Parliament poll, conducted by Survation for the Daily Mail. I appreciate only true anoraks will care, given the next Scottish general election is 59 months away and given complete political turmoil, but nevertheless it’s interesting to see a quick snapshot of how the Holyrood parties are being scored.

It’ll be superseded soon, but it tells a fairly simple story: two up, two down. The SNP would be markedly up, back to their 2011 peak of 69 seats and regaining their overall majority. The Tories would see the sharpest decline, although they’d still be well above their 2011 figure. Labour would see the worst result ever – something which has been true in every Holyrood election after 1999. That would put them just 4.3% ahead of the Greens on the lists, and only eight seats ahead of Patrick Harvie’s delegation, which would almost double in size. And despite all that change, absolutely no change on May for the Lib Dems in seat terms – despite a boost to their regional vote.

Looked at a slightly different way, the pro-independence parties would gain 11 seats from Labour and the Tories, with no change for the federalists, although Labour and the Lib Dems’ positions on the constitution would definitely be in question if they do in the end have to choose between the UK and the EU. Has the increase in support for independence given Brexit driven this? It seems likely.

Parties Constituency Region Total
Vote share (+/-) Seats (+/-) Vote share (+/-) Seats (+/-) Seats (+/-) %
SNP 50.4 (+3.9) 68 (+9) 40.6 (-1.1) 1 (-3) 69 (+6) 53.5
Conservative 20.5 (-1.5) 1 (-6) 20.3 (-2.6) 24 (±0) 25 (-6) 19.4
Labour 17.7 (-4.9) 0 (-3) 15.9 (-3.2) 19 (-2) 19 (-5) 14.7
Scottish Greens 0 (±0) 11.6 (+5) 11 (+5) 11 (+5) 8.5
Liberal Democrats 7.8 (±0) 4 (±0) 6.9 (+1.7) 1 (±0) 5 (±0) 3.9
UKIP 0 (±0) 3.5 (+1.5) 0 (±0) 0 (±0) 0
Others 3.6 (+2.5) 0 (±0) 1.2 (-1.4) 0 (-1) 0 (-1) 0

The seat projections are from Scotland Votes. The Cutbot one doesn’t yet have the 2021 data in, so until it does I’m reverting to that. Thanks to Alan for providing the full tables for this post, too. They didn’t get used in the Mail (too busy reporting the downsides of Brexit?) so I think this is exclusive.