Better Nation

Another guest from Dan Phillips, a post-election wrap-up of his Edinburgh coverage.

What drama? What conspiracy? What intrigue, hey? But in the end the most obvious result came to fruition. Only a mile up the road from the partisan backbiting of Holyrood, Labour and SNP are in coalition.

I cannot condemn that result. Two parties, largely agreeing on the direction of Edinburgh, forming a coalition with a stable majority. Why wasn’t it so obvious? How much hatred can there be between these two parties that a constitutional divide – whilst real on the national level is illusory on the local – remains a sticking point.

My own suggestion of the Traffic Light 29, whilst mathematically possible, was politically impractical. With the SNP wooing the Tories heavily we could have a neatly divided council, not with one potential administration but two. Red/Green/Yellow vs Tartan and Blue. An entire election and the fate of Scotland’s capital coming down to the cut of the deck. Exciting drama, but such antics are best left to the telly. You could argue that Labour had a moral right to form such a group, but one thing politics is not about is putting your opponent into power if you have a realistic stab at it yourself. Plus with the election leaving Edinburgh littered with Lib Dem bodies, they didn’t want to join, or supply confidence. Not that the possibility was discussed.

The curious attempt to skewer the Greens, with opposing parties’ activists condemning their refusal to join a Lab/Tory/Green mash up is also nonsensical. As soon as Lab and the Tories disagreed with their Green fig-leaf there would be nothing to stop them jettisoning their junior partner. Such realpolitik would leave the Greens open to use, then abuse.

Similarly Labour’s hopes of an ‘all talents’ coalition with all five parties foundered on such stony ground. The only example of such a coalition existing is in Northern Ireland’s Assembly. It only works there because the parties are compelled to do it and legislation can only be passed if a majority within both the unionist and nationalist bloc assent. Here there is no such structural guarantees. Indeed there are arguments in Stormont that it barely works there, with a ‘government within the government’ emerging as the DUP and Sinn Fein find out that they have a little more in common than they ever expected.

So Labour, fearing the most almighty of backlashes from bedding the Tories suddenly saw those personal differences, the historical division and Cardownie’s defection as not that insurmountable at all. How grown-up of our political chums. Long may it continue.

The SNP achieved their first council majorities under the STV voting system in Dundee and Angus last week.

In Dundee, every one of the 16 candidates standing for the SNP were elected, giving an amazing two SNP councillors in every one of Dundee’s eight wards, including in 3 three-member wards.

The results in Dundee are testament to how the SNP has focused on building electoral support over the long-term, but also shows the strategy the rest of the party needs to heed if they want control of Scotland’s other cities.

From its Victorian past as ‘Juteopolis’, with harsh working and living conditions and low wages for its predominately female workforce, to the loss of thousands of jobs in the last quarter of the 20^th century as the shipyards, carpet manufacturing and jute factories closed, Dundee has been shaped both by industrialisation and post-industrialisation. In recent years the city continues to be beset with the creation and removal of manufacturing jobs, the most striking being the loss of almost 1,000 jobs as NCR has ceased the manufacture of ATMs in the city, where it has operated since 1945.

The public sector – the universities, NHS Tayside and Dundee City Council – remains the city’s main employer. But the development of the waterfront – from Scottish Government funding for an outpost of the V&A, to a memorandum of understanding to attract offshore wind suppliers to the city – as well as continuing developments in biosciences and computer games means Dundee’s moniker of the ‘City of Discovery’ gives promise of a better economic future.

The story of Dundee’s transformation is a story reflected in the SNP’s gains and now control of the city. Labour consolidated its parliamentary position in Dundee post 1945, but its share of the vote hovered around 55% well into the 1970s. Dundee may have been a working class city, but this figure indicates a third of Dundee’s working class consistently voted Conservative.

The rise of the SNP since the 1970s mirrors the collapse of support for Scottish conservatism. Starting with the SNP’s near miss in the 1973 Dundee East by-election, anti-Labour voters began to drift away from the Conservative Party to an increasing affection for the SNP, developed through de-industrialisation and the perception that Westminster governments, especially under Thatcher, cared little for the city and the problems of her inhabitants. Former SNP leader Gordon Wilson won Dundee East in February 1974, holding it until 1987 from where it remained Labour until Stuart Hosie’s close victory in 2005, with his vote consolidating in 2010.

The growth of the SNP in Dundee post-devolution – taking both Holyrood seats and comfortably holding one of the two for Westminster – may have sprung from a foundation of working-class Conservative support, but its success comes from adopting Labour’s traditional garb of social democratic policies, eating into the Labour vote. Even the headline figures in the SNP’s local manifestos in 2012 give a pithy reminder of how this strategy is one the SNP needs to succeed. Where Edinburgh SNP’s £20m for road repairs looks a little lacklustre next to Edinburgh Labour’s utopian promise of a co-operative council, Dundee SNP was bold and bright with the promise of £320m local investment “through building council houses and five new primary schools, as well as freezing council tax until 2016 and introducing a living wage for all council staff.” I’m sure Edinburgh SNP had similar policies, but they certainly didn’t put them front and forward.

Coupled with weak organisation on the part of the Labour Party, centered around maintaining its hold on Dundee West at Westminster, it has been possible for the SNP to straddle the spectrum of both being competent city leaders as well as the anti-establishment choice. As Dundee’s economic future seems brighter, despite setbacks like the loss of NCR jobs, the local SNP has been able to trumpet successes and blame losses on others.

It is a dichotomy the rest of the Scottish National Party needs to excel at, for winning council seats, the referendum and to retain power in Holyrood. To be competent at governing to give confidence to non-traditional SNP voters, while maintaining its allure as an alternative to the forces of conservatism south of the border and the fatigued Labour Party to the north.

Dundee is a city of innovation and re-invention, transforming itself from producing jute to producing graduates, with profound social and political consequences that the SNP have surfed to success. While many look at the chicken bones of Glasgow and Edinburgh for divination of the future of Nationalism and independence, I think the exemplar of how independence could be won can be discovered just a little further to the north.

Another Edinburgh-centric guest post from Better Nation’s esteemed friend Dan Phillips, following his previous posts on the SNP and the Lib Dems locally. Dan’s a press photographer by trade but a political obsessive at heart. A small ‘l’ liberal, he blogs at liberalsellout.wordpress.com.

So there we have it. 20 Labour, 18 SNP, 11 Conservative, 6 Green, and 3 Lib Dems form the new council.

As the journalists and myself pored over these numbers and argued the toss, ‘definitely Lab/Tory’, ‘it has to be Lab/SNP’, ‘Lab/Green/Lib Dem traffic lights for me’, leader of Labour in Edinburgh Andrew Burns swept through with a Cheshire cat grin spread across his face.

‘We’re just trying to work out your coalition Andrew’, I said.

He replied: ‘So am I!’

Everyone tells me this was a boring campaign. Geek that I am, I thought it sensational. Turnout wasn’t awful at just over 40%, Labour won despite most people’s expectations and the Lib Dems provided a Portillo moment with Jenny Dawe’s hopes for safety in Meadows/Morningside being dashed as her seat was removed by the SNP. I’m sorry for her but the Lib Dems had a defeat coming and didn’t try to defend themselves until the last few weeks. The Greens made the jaws drop of supporters and critics alike as they not only won 6 seats but topped the poll in Fountainbridge, removing a ‘safe’ Tory, and then made lightning strike twice as Burgess won the top spot in Southside/Newington. Although I had expected them to win one more, the now councillor who waggled his finger and said: ‘You underestimate us, you Liberal Sell Out’ was proven correct, and I am delighted to be wrong.

Much will now be made of the SNP’s strategy. Their vaulting ambition did over-leap itself. But that doesn’t mean they were wrong to stand two candidates in Leith Walk, or Craigentinny and in many other seats. In a higher turnout those seats could have swung their way. But they also discovered the huge problem standing two risks: the pesky electorate might pick the ‘wrong’ one. They still have a councillor in Leith, just not Rob Munn, so it was a bitter-sweet victory for Adam McVey. I don’t suppose they’ll try it again.

And then the Tories pulled a Nick Cook shaped rabbit out of the Liberton/Gilmerton hat. No one saw that coming, apart from the proud Conservative activist I overheard saying ‘I knew it would work!’ Good for you Nick.

So now comes the hard part. If you follow conventional wisdom, Labour gets to govern and SNP form the opposition, giving the Tories the mathematical possibility of getting in bed with the Reds while the Greens and Lib Dems are left in the cold.

For me that would be a crazy conclusion. Just look at the manifestos. And then look at the behaviour of Greens and Labour at the tailend of the last session, they marched in lockstep on so many things they reeked of a government in waiting. Their policies agree on the end result, Labour say ‘co-operative council’, Greens say ‘Participative Budgets’, they just propose different means. They can work it out.

Which leaves a Lab/Green coalition on 26, short of the magic 30 for a majority of one. But hold your horses, the last administration only had 28, with 17 Lib Dems and 11 SNP until one swapped parties within the coalition.

I suggest that means a traffic light coalition which gives us 29 is a wide open door for the Lib Dems. But do they pass through? They were utterly defeated, reduced to a rump of 3 in the West of the city. But this is not a time for sulking. Either they form a part of the government or they buy one of Edinburgh’s police boxes and have their own meetings within as everyone else gets on with running Edinburgh. They need to prove there’s still a reason for loyalty to the Lib Dems, contributing to the administration is the best way.

Which leaves 29, one short of a proper majority. But the Lord Provost has the casting vote so they could still get their budget through.

Of course I’m ignoring the glaringly obvious. A Labour/SNP coalition. It could work, of course. In fact it’d have a stonking majority. But better informed people than I talk of the deep personal animosity between some of the councillors. Those hatchets buried in each other’s backs will have to be dislodged and the wounds healed over. If there’s any message to take from the last administration it’s don’t form a coalition if you can’t agree. Even if they don’t form a coalition at some level arguments that stem from a different political era need to be consigned to history. Edinburgh doesn’t need a dysfunctional 5 years, it needs leadership and with a divided council that means co-operation. So it could work.

But the Labour/Green love-in is such a tantalising prospect and with so many ideas bursting from their manifestos this would be a chance to set Edinburgh on a new course. The Lib Dems are surely compelled to join this coalition of the willing or they risk irrelevance. This is the only extra traffic light Edinburgh requires. Red. Yellow. Green.