Jeff and I have divided the regions between us for analytical purposes (its not really fair to ask James, given his employers are involved in the process!) so I’m up next with a look at how the North-East of Scotland could potentially pan out in May.  Given my scepticism of opinion polls, this might be interesting – but also given we’re looking for some consistency, I figure its better that we both use a similar methodology… so using here’s my take on it.

Naturally, we need to look at the constituencies first:

Aberdeen Central – This is notionally very close. Labour won it in 2007 by just 350-ish votes, and boundary changes make it notionally SNP (if you are David Denver) or notionally Labour (if you are Will Patterson) with the Lib Dems notionally quite close in third.  But this is all on paper.  The SNP have their council leader, Kevin Stewart, as candidate while Lewis MacDonald is the incumbent Labour MSP.  I think toss a coin… but give it marginally to Labour (council is LD-SNP + opinion polls point this way). Labour hold (Lewis MacDonald – returning).

Aberdeen Donside – Should be a relatively straightforward hold for the SNP, boundary changes notwithstanding. SNP hold (Brian Adam – returning).

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – This one could be interesting.  When the Lib Dems win seats, they tend to entrench, and keep winning.  Nicol Stephen won the corresponding seat for them – as party leader, so with a high profile – in 2007 with a majority of 2,700, but with an 11% swing AWAY from the Lib Dems.  Its notionally still Lib Dem – a majority of just over 2,000 (on the Denver figures) but with Nicol Stephen standing down and Maureen Watt (list MSP) standing for the SNP, this could be tighter.  Though it will likely be a bad night for the Lib Dems, its seats like this that will continue their over-representation in FPTP seats… but not by much I wouldn’t think – maybe less than 500 votes. Lib Dem hold (John Sleigh – new face).

Aberdeenshire East – Its the FM’s seat at the moment, and barring any massive shocks, it’ll still be Alex Salmond’s seat after the election.  Whether he is still FM after it though, is more difficult to foresee.  SNP hold (Alex Salmond – returning).

Aberdeenshire West – Similar to AS&NK above, this is a relatively safe Lib Dem seat, though boundary changes do turn an actual 5,100 majority into a notional 3,700 one.  And again, despite a Lib Dem vote which is likely to fall, they should still manage to hold on – given there is no high-profile challenger, and the opposition is split between yellow and blue – though expect a majority of less than 2,000. Lib Dem hold (Mike Rumbles – returning).

Angus North & Mearns – Splitting Angus in two gives the SNP an opportunity to claim 2 seats in the area instead of one – a chance they will likely take.  This one is notionally SNP by 5,000 votes, making it a comfortable SNP hold (Nigel Don – returning).

Angus South – Despite Andrew Welsh’s retirement, the SNP should maintain their hold on Angus here, with a notional majority of 6,000.  Expect that to drop, but the party to return comfortably. SNP hold (Graeme Dey – new face).

Banffshire & Buchan Coast – The SNP’s majority in the corresponding seat in 2007 was one of the largest (the largest in fact?) in Scotland.  Should be straightforward, even with new boundaries. SNP hold (Stewart Stevenson – returning).

Dundee City East – Shona Robison has been MSP for here since 2003. Higher profile as a minister should help, and with a majority of over 4,000, she should be back again. SNP hold (Shona Robison – retuning).

Dundee City West – Despite this majority being half of Shona Robison’s, I expect this also to maintain the SNP’s dominance over the City of Discovery. SNP hold (Joe FitzPatrick – returning).

Thus, with all constituencies accounted for, we end up with a division of:

SNP – 7
Lib Dem – 2
Labour – 1

Now, to the list seats – and a quick explanation of methodology.  We’re using the most recent poll figures (Lab-36%, SNP-32%, Con-15%, LD-11% and Green -6%) but with a twist.  Given those are national figures, it makes more sense to make it more regional.  So, using we’ve used the 2007 list figures to work out the proportion of the national vote the respective regional vote makes up, and subsequently applied that proportion to the poll figure.  This should make it more region-specific.  This isn’t that easy to explain, so if you are particularly interested, I can email the working.  But for the north-east, that means using revised list figures of Lab - 24.48%, SNP – 41.6% Lib Dem – 15.18% Con – 15.6% Green – 4.62%.

Which means we’re looking at a list distribution of:

Seat 1: Conservative (Alex Johnstone – returning)
Seat 2: Labour (Richard Baker – returning)
Seat 3: Labour (Jenny Marra – new face)
Seat 4: Conservative (Nanette Milne – returning)
Seat 5: Labour (Lesley McMahon – new face [#4 on Lab list but Lewis McDonald elected in constituency])
Seat 6: SNP (Maureen Watt – returning)
Seat 7: Conservative (Hughie Campbell Adamson – new face)

(Seat 8 would be: Lib Dem – but closely contested by Labour and Greens)

So, expected North-East Scotland result (2007 in brackets):

SNP –7 + 1 =8 (8)
Labour – 1 + 3 = 4 (3)
Lib Dem – 2 + 0 = 2 (3)
Conservative – 0 + 3 = 3 (2)

An extra constituency increases the amount of MSPs from the North-East from 15 to 16, with Labour and the Tories the beneficiaries and the Lib Dems losing out.

Taking a leaf out of Jeff’s book, tactical considerations for the region:
No clue!  Its difficult to see how tactical voting can help anyone other than the big parties, as any constituency gain would be compensated for by a list loss, and the Greens are (on these, hypothetical, figures) a good bit away from winning a seat.  I guess if you are a Tory, to gain another list seat you could perhaps vote tactically in a constituency to get another Labour MSP there, and hope that you had enough list votes to overcome the SNP there.  Guess that works for the Lib Dems and Greens too.