After I wrote this post rounding up our “Region Watch” series, I copped a bit of flak on Twitter for my projections of female representation at Holyrood after May’s election.  Apparently I was too positive.  I actually spotted I’d made a mistake, and the numbers we projected would make 47 female MSPs and not 46 (as I said in the post).  Which would make me even more positive.  Cue even more scepticism I imagine.  So I thought I’d delve into the numbers a bit more.  Obviously, this is subject to the usual caveats surrounding opinion polls – so keep that in mind.

First, a bit of background.

In 1999, there were 48 female MSPs (37.2%).  That rose to 51 (39.5%) in 2003 before taking a dramatic tumble to 43 – 33.3% – in 2007.  With the passing of the SNP’s Bashir Ahmad – the only (EDIT ethnic-minority) “non-white” MSP Holyrood has seen – and his replacement as an MSP by Anne McLaughlin, the total at Holyrood’s dissolution stood at 44 (34.1%).  For more analysis and division by party, see this article in Scottish Affairs (pdf).  50% of the seats at Holyrood is, for the sake of clarity, 65.

And so to 2011.  The Guardian reports that only 28% of all candidates for the election in May will be women which, according to both The Hansard Society and the Centre for Women and Democracy, means there will be fewer women elected to Holyrood than in 2007.  And yet, from our analysis (and by our, I mean Jeff and I – James and Kate should be exonerated from any of the following – though Kate ran numbers previously and ended up with 43) we have a rise – a small one, but a rise nonetheless – in female representation, from the 43 women elected in 2007 to 47 now.

Here’s where we’ve projected them to come from:

Highlands & Islands (3)
0 constituencies – which isn’t a surprise, since most have never had a female MP never mind a female MSP
3 list MSPs: Rhoda Grant (Lab – seat #2), Eleanor Scott (Grn – #4) and Mary Scanlon (Con – #5)

North-East Scotland (5)
1 constituency: Shona Robison (SNP – Dundee City East)
4 list: Jenny Marra(Lab – #3) Nanette Milne (Con -#4) Lesley McMahon (Lab – #5) Maureen Watt (SNP – #6)

Lothian (8)
3 constituencies: Sarah Boyack (Lab – Edin Central), Margaret Smith (LD – Edin West), Mary Mulligan (Lab – Linlithgow)
5 list: Fiona Hyslop (SNP #2) Shirley-Anne Somerville (SNP #3) Alison Johnstone (Grn #4) Margo MacDonald (Ind #5) Angela Constance (SNP #6)

Mid-Scotland & Fife (7)
4 constituencies: Helen Eadie (Lab – Cowdenbeath), Marlyn Livingstone (Lab – Kircaldy), Tricia Marwick (SNP – Mid-Fife & Glenrothes), Roseanna Cunningham (SNP – Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
3 list: Elizabeth Smith (Con #2) Claire Baker (Lab #4) Annabelle Ewing (SNP #7)

West Scotland (4)
2 constituencies: Irene Oldfather (Lab – Cunninghame South), Jackie Baillie (Lab – Dumbarton)
2 list: Annabel Goldie (Con #2) Fiona McLeod (SNP #5)

Central Scotland (7)
3 constituencies: Elaine Smith (Lab – Coatbridge & Chryston), Cathy Craigie (Lab – Cumbernauld & Kilsyth), Cathy Peattie (Lab – Falkirk East)
4 list: Linda Fabiani (SNP #2) Margaret Mitchell (Con #3) Siobhan McMahon (Lab #5) Christina McKelvie (SNP #6)

South Scotland (7)
3 constituencies: Karen Gillon (Lab - Clydesdale), Gillian Dykes (Con – Dumfriesshire), Christine Grahame (SNP – Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
4 list: Aileen Campbell (SNP #1), Elaine Murray (Lab #2), Claudia Beamish (Lab #5), Joan McAlpine (SNP #6)

Glasgow (6)
4 constituencies: Pauline McNeill (Lab – Kelvin), Patricia Ferguson (Lab – Maryhill & Springburn), Johann Lamont (Lab – Pollock), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP – Southside)
2 list: Sandra White (SNP #3) Ruth Davidson (Con #4)

That makes 47 – and you can see the regional variations above without the need for me to point out the glaringly obvious bias in favour of male MSPs in H&I and West.  Its perhaps not fair to single them out, since no region has a particularly good record here.  The exception is perhaps Lothian, where 50% of the MSPs returned in our analysis would be women (and see below for potential increase).

Of course there could be more or there could be fewer than I’ve outlined above.  A lot of the list seats (where the majority of the female candidates are) depend on the outcome of some marginal seats – and the outcome of those depends entirely on how people vote on the day.  Here’s a few that might have an impact:

Western Isles – Jeff projected Donald Crichton would win this for Labour over the SNP’s Alasdair Allan.  I think he’s wrong – but in the final party mark-up, it doesn’t matter, since Labour would take a list seat at the SNP’s expense.  But on gender, it does, since next on Labour’s list is a woman – Linda Stewart – which would add one to the tally above.

Aberdeenshire South & North Kincardine – I went for John Sleigh of the Lib Dems here, but if the SNP’s Maureen Watt can win it, that’d free up a list seat for the Lib Dems – which would go to Alison McInnes.  Add one more (for best case scenario).

Almond Valley – If Angela Constance won here (or, less likely but still plausible, if Shirley-Anne Somerville won in Edinburgh Northern & Leith) she would beat out a male Labour candidate.  Labour would likely win a list seat, replacing their male constituency winner with a female list MSP (Kezia Dugdale).

Airdrie & Shotts – Alex Neil was projected to pick this up for the SNP, but if Karen Whitefield held on, Alex Neil would be returned on the list, with Labour losing a list seat held by a male.  So there’s potential here for a net female gain as well.

If all four of those go against our projections, then we could be looking at 51 female MSPs, taking us back up to 2003 levels (which, granted, is still only 39.5% of the seats).  However, I can find one example of it going the other way:

South of Scotland – Two female candidates fighting out Dumfriesshire, which is notionally Conservative.  If they hold on (as we currently project) then Gillian Dykes is the constituency MSP and her opponent, Elaine Murray, is returned on the list.  If the positions are reversed in Dumfriesshire, the Conservatives do win the list seat to compensate for their constituency loss, but the seat is taken not by Gillian Dykes but by Derek Brownlee – which would mean a net -1 for women at Holyrood.

It is a complex business working this out, and fine margins exist everywhere.  With the exceptions of Sarah Boyack, whose constituency is notionally Lib Dem, Nicola Sturgeon (notionally Labour seat), Christine Grahame, who has notionally inherited the seat from the Lib Dems, and the aforementioned Dumfriesshire seat, most of the seats which currently have female MSPs are relatively safe.  Thus I expect most of those will be returned to Holyrood – which means it all comes down to the list as to whether more or fewer female MSPs than 2007 are returned.

While this is nowhere near the parity expected of the “new politics” in 1999 (where has that disappeared to, by the way?) nor anything to get excited about, I’m more optimistic than the Guardian and others about the outcome in this respect.  And I never thought the words “Malc” and “optimistic” actually went in the same sentence.