A guest post today from Ian Baxter, Green Party activist and chair of Bonnyrigg & Lasswade Community Council. Ian has stood as a candidate for the Green Party (and its predecessor, the Ecology Party) many times over the last 30 years, and in 2007 came close to becoming Midlothian’s first Green councillor, something he hopes to achieve on May 3rd. He blogs at Hearts and Mines.

Last week, Midlothian Labour followed their Glasgow counterparts in losing an overall majority on the Council when Councillor Jackie Aitchison resigned and immediately submitted his nomination papers as an Independent candidate in next month’s local elections.

There was a time when Midlothian was described as ‘the one party state’ with 17 out of 18 councillors belonging to the Labour Party (albeit on 46% of the vote). That was under First Past the Post. More recently, ahead of the STV-based local elections in 2007, I was told that the then council’s Chief Executive was overheard saying that if Labour didn’t get two of the three seats up for grabs in the Bonnyrigg ward, then it was in serious trouble. If he’s to be believed, then I think that time has now come.

Midlothian has six three-member wards. In 2007, Labour won 9 of the 18 seats, with the Nats 6 and the Lib Dems three. Soon after the election, however, Lib Dem councillor Katie Moffat jumped into the red camp and normal business resumed.

Change is not something Midlothian flirts with much, but this time it might just smack us on the lips. In common with most areas across Scotland, the Nationalists only fielded one candidate per ward five years ago. They all topped the list on first preference votes, with one, Margaret Wilson in Penicuik, not far short of double the vote of her nearest rival.

Throw into the mix a near collapse of the Lib Dem vote, and some local factors which I’ll come to shortly, and this looks very much like one council which will be changing hands in four weeks’ time.

Penicuik has always been a Lib Dem stronghold, once represented by Michael Moore, now Secretary of State for Scotland – indeed he was the one non-Labour councillor back in the days of the one-party state. In 2007 they came close to winning two of the three councillors there. However, the SNP, fielding two candidates, have a decent chance of removing the Lib Dem, though my bet is there will be no change.

Les Thacker, the Lib Dems’ councillor in Midlothian West will not be so lucky. Loanhead and district has always been fluid electorally, and with 9 candidates standing, it will again provide a bit of interest. My guess is SNP Group leader Owen Thompson will return along with his running mate Andrew Coventry replacing the Lib Dem representation.

In Midlothian East, Katie Moffat only just scraped in last time for the Lib Dems, but even with her red rosette I can’t see Labour taking two seats here. Another SNP gain, I’d say.

Midlothian South will be a hard fought battleground between SNP and Labour. Last time it was 2-1 to Labour, with newly elected SNP MSP Colin Beattie and Labour councillor Wilma Chalmers both standing down, it’s a difficult one to call. It could go either way, but I think SNP will sneak two in.

In Dalkeith, SNP’s Craig Statham and Labour’s Alex Bennett were two votes apart on first preferences last time, with Depute Provost Margot Russell squeaking in for Labour on just 761 first prefs. Local factors will come into play, with controversy surrounding the Woodburn Community Centre possibly affecting the Labour vote. However, with neither of the SNP’s candidates a sitting councillor, I think Labour may prevail.

Which brings us to Bonnyrigg, where once again I will be flying the flag for the Greens. In 2007, Bob Constable was elected for the SNP on the first round of counting with 400 votes to spare. Jackie Aitchison – now standing as an independent – was elected immediately after. Labour’s Derek Milligan had to wait until the seventh and final round before eliminating myself to take the third spot.

With two Nats standing, and the Labour vote potentially split three ways, there will be a fair amount of vote transfers taking place before anyone reaches quota. Bob Constable and Derek Milligan (benefitting this time from alphabetic precedence) will probably be elected – although Derek’s well known association with a number of controversial local issues and tendency to hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons could mean there is an outside chance his running mate Louie Milliken may overtake him.

So who gets the third seat in Bonnyrigg is the question. Without Labour backing, Jackie Aitchison is unlikely to succeed, though where his transfers go and what he does and says during the campaign may be critical. The SNP has not been particularly active locally and Labour candidate Louie Milliken is virtually unknown in these parts. Unlike in 2007, I am now chair of the community council and have been very active in exposing the Labour Council’s maladministration over allegedly missing grant funding made to Bonnyrigg Rose for a car park which still hasn’t materialised several years on.

Given the local factors involved, my own activity over many years, the relative anonymity of my main rivals and some very encouraging canvass returns, I am optimistic for my chances here in being the first Green councillor on Midlothian Council.

Should that happen, I would see the make-up of Midlothian Council on 4th May being SNP 9, Labour 7, Lib Dem 1, Green 1. How that translates into power will be interesting.