When The Scotsman is agitatedly reporting a poll showing moves towards a Yes vote then you know it’s time to start believing it might happen. Not in the way that belief works as a manifestation of the dreams of the independence movement, but giving plausibility to the idea that by next October Scotland may well have taken its first steps to once again becoming a sovereign state.
This is of course great news for supporters of the Yes campaign and will not cheer Better Together and the other unionist campaign groups at all. More importantly, it requires those currently opposed to independence to seriously ready themselves for the democratic changeover and for all of Holyrood’s opposition parties (including the pro-indy Greens) to come up with a plan to beat the SNP in the first post-independence elections. If the white paper was an ‘SNP manifesto’ as many people have claimed, shouldn’t the Tories, Liberals, Labour and the Greens be making up their own manifestos for the day after?
Marked out as the bright young hope of Scottish Labour, what is Anas Sarwar’s Plan B? There’ll be no more Progress think tank meetings in London and probably no Sarwar family seat either. As someone who lambasts the SNP for not focusing on the issues that matter to people, can we assume that Anas has a long list of issues to talk about the day after? Can Scottish Labour just plot UK policy onto Scotland or will they have to come up with an entirely new political project in the space of 9 months before that final UK general election of 2015? Similarly, can the Liberal Democrats recover their traditional territory without any real policy input. What are their plans on an independent Scottish energy policy? What are the Lib Dem views on currency, immigration and the broadcast media? Come a Yes vote it could be the No parties drawing up ideas on the back of a fag packet, and in a new democracy with one party making all the running that is a dangerous place to be.
The No campaign portrayal of Alex Salmond as a tinpot dictator risks becoming a reality should they not get their act together. An SNP dominated Scotland could be a self-fulfilling prophecy in the absence of any alternative vision from opposition parties, so by refusing to embrace the notion of independence at all they are playing a very dangerous game with democracy. For everybody’s sake, we should probably hope there are a stack of brown envelopes in the locked drawers of Ruth, Johann and Willie’s desks underneath all those UKOK badges.
#1 by douglas clark on January 26, 2014 - 11:50 pm
Dom,
I have no idea what you think you are saying here. It is pretty obvious that in the event of a ‘yes’ vote every political party – and that includes the SNP – will need to re-invent itself to attract voters.
There has been a budding of options.
Green
Common Weal
Scottish Democratic Alliance
Personally, I’d probably vote for the Greens, but the point is that we’ll all have an option.
It is for obtaining that option, and for it meaning something worthwhile, that I’ll be voting Yes. If legacy political parties die off, so be it.
#2 by Richard on January 27, 2014 - 11:23 am
The first requirement for Scottish Labour would actually be to form a Scottish Labour Party, as no such entity exists at this time.
My betting is that with Independence achieved, the main tie that binds the disparate parts of the SNP together would dissolve. That would lead to the SNP being weakened and a flourishing of smaller parties as those defectors seek out a new home.
I also suspect that the “Labour” brand is becoming almost as toxic as the “Tory” brand has been in Scotland, and that the SSP could really capitalize if they can stop infighting and get their act together.
#3 by James on January 27, 2014 - 12:00 pm
I’m pretty sure the SSP stopped infighting when the lying Tommyistas left. Not that I’m a member, obvs.
#4 by muttley79 on January 27, 2014 - 2:42 pm
The article ignores the fact that even SLAB in their current form are still a significant electoral force. I would imagine that a major realignment would take place in Scottish politics. I could easily see a properly independent Scottish Labour Party aligning with the STUC to really push the social justice angle (both socially and economically). Obviously, there would have to be a clear out of careerists and Brit Nats who allowed SLAB to basically become Red Tories. If a new Scottish Labour Party went significantly to the left then I would imagine some of the young activists from the Radical Independence Campaign, and also SSP members, might be tempted to join. This is kind of what people like Canavan and Sillars are talking about just now.
Another problem with believing that the SNP will be all dominant in a newly independent Scotland is that a moderate right wing party could attract probably up to about 20 per cent of the Scottish vote. Right wingers from the SNP would probably join in the medium term. They would probably be joined by others from SLAB and the Liberal Democrats. I could also see a new Liberal party emerging; somebody like Michael Moore could led it. They would probably target their old strongholds in the Borders, Highlands, and Orkney and Shetland to build up a support base again.
I genuinely think that the SNP’s dominance would only last in the first term in an independent Scotland. I also do not think that the medium to long term prospects for the SNP in an independent Scotland are good at all. Finally, I do not think there would be an appetite among the electorate here to see the kind of dominance that SLAB and more recently the SNP have had. I think there would be permanent tactical voting to ensure that this does not happen. We need to see have meaningful political pluralism in Scotland in order to see a real democracy being built and sustained here.
#5 by bjsalba on January 27, 2014 - 2:43 pm
I’m confused. Who should be doing what exactly?
#6 by Dom on January 27, 2014 - 2:55 pm
My point was basically that by refusing to contemplate the immediate challenges and responsibilities of a country with full control over every single policy area, every battle for answers will be harder because the SNP have a researched hypothetical policy platform. Due to the different sizes of the countries and the economies, simply saying ‘see our Westminster manifesto’ won’t work. This is particularly the case on defence and energy policy.
#7 by setondene on January 27, 2014 - 10:07 pm
So, no room for a nationalist party then, according to muttley et al? Personally, I’ll be supporting the SNP for the rest of my life following this desperate decades-long struggle to gain whatever ‘independence’ might mean after September 2014. If people think that a Yes vote will terminate English interference in our society they are in for a rude awakening.
#8 by Muttley79 on January 28, 2014 - 2:12 pm
@setondene
Who said there would be no room for the SNP? I am not sure why you have decided to support the SNP for the rest of your life. You have no idea what their policies will be like in 10 years time. The need for a explicit nationalist party is significantly reduced with the establishment of a Scottish state. There is no doubt that the SNP will have to change significantly if there is a Yes vote. Their main goal will have been achieved. Your last comment is problematic as well. Independence means we will have full responsibility for all our problems and issues. I am not sure you are supporting independence for the right reasons, judging by your last comment.
#9 by setondene on January 28, 2014 - 4:58 pm
Hi Muttley79, thanks for your response. I was thinking of future ‘nationalist’ issues like recreating an independent banking sector, not to mention press and other media. I am not as convinced as you that independence will give us full control over our destiny. I’ve supported independence since 1970 and it seems a never-ending struggle to make even the tiniest gains. Labour have proved to be a massive disappointment and, like many others, I’ll never be able to trust them even if they stick ‘Scottish’ on to the front of their title. Anyway, people support independence for different reasons and if my reasons are the wrong ones that’s your opinion and you’re entitled to it. My last comment is the result of working in government for over 30 years and observing the reality of how British power is applied Worldwide.
#10 by muttley79 on January 28, 2014 - 10:59 pm
@setondene
Thanks for the clarification. If you had said the British state (which I take it to mean from your last post) instead of English (which sounds like a generalisation of the people), then that is much more understandable. I think we will get our own banking sector and media after a Yes vote. However, it will take time to develop.