Archive for category Holyrood

An independent mind

Margo MacDonald, Independent candidate for the Lothians (and Independent MSP for the last 8 years) gives us a guest post today, setting out her views on some of the key policies being debated in this election campaign and her priorities should she be re-elected in May.

At a Hustings meeting in Edinburgh, candidates were asked what they considered to be the most important feature of the Election. My answer was probably not what most members of the audience expected, but after a couple of explanatory sentences, quite a few heads were nodding in agreement.

I said what I most wanted to see was the back of this futile, phoney parade of misleading spin disguised as party manifestos. I accused the “big four” of issuing near fraudulent prospectuses of their programmes for government. None of the supposed leaders of public opinion had the courage to level with voters and admit the Scottish Parliament’s impotence in effecting fundamental change. Therefore, when the piper has to be paid, or paid-off, after the election, by whoever wins, the electors will lose any lingering respect and trust in the forked-tongued politicians who sold them a pup.

In the week or so since that hustings, I’ve detected a growing cynicism on the part of voters that the promises of Council Tax being frozen for up to five years, while the money sent from Westminster for Holyrood to dole out to local councils, the NHS etc will be cut by  £1.3 billion from the current year’s block grant, leading to a total cut of  £4.8 billion in 2015. In response so far, the ”big four” have continued to promise programmes and projects without even trying to re-prioritise the need for  big ticket projects like the proposed Forth Bridge.

Labour and Tory spokespersons continue to insist that one all-Scotland police service will be cheaper than the present 8 forces. Even if the most important criterion of all, whether such a plan would continue the “policing by consent”  ethos on which our civil order rests, it’s more than doubtful that the promised savings in cost can be realised. Is it too much to hope that both parties, plus the SNP, will say in advance of May 5th whether their second preference would be for a reduction to two, or three, forces? To their credit, the Lib Dems will have nothing to do with the idea of a single force, even if it did appear to be the cheapest option. They value our civil liberties more.

The values we attach to our public services should play a large part in the parliamentary and public debates that will follow the election. The debate on how much we value the purity of no tuition fees from P1 to First Class Honours has so far been confined to the amount an individual student might pay for tuition, and when. We haven’t even begun to look at the delivery mechanism for degrees. Are there changes that could be made to the number of institutions offering by and large the same degrees?

As an Independent, if Lothian voters re-elect me, I’ll support policies and initiatives most likely to keep people in work, to keep them healthy and to provide the means or the guidance for them to access the highest standards possible in life-long learning.

I’ve got a few ideas of my own I’ll pitch in too. Since the very concept of retirement is changing due to the flexible end point to a working life, I’d like to see Parliament host a Pensioners’ Day  along the lines of Business in Parliament. Also, I’ll be looking for support across the parties for an investigation into scandalously high PPP profits. I’ll still be banging the drum for every primary school pupil to have a time for some physical activity every day…the two hours PE a week would be great if it were feasible, but for several reasons is the wrong way to go about producing a fitter, more active nation. And I’ll have another shot at an Assisted Dying Bill.

The Sun ain’t gonna whine any more

There’s not really much to say about the Sun’s endorsement of the SNP other than ‘Blimey, that’s a welcome surprise. Can the Daily Record have some of what they’re having please?’. The red top that loves to rant and rave has seemingly come round to the SNP a full four years after famously, and quite disgracefully, putting a noose on its front page as a warning of what would happen if the Nats got in. 

The Scottish Sun has now reeled its neck in so far that it is in favour of a referendum, though not of independence itself. So, glossing over the tawdriness involved in courting a tabloid’s favour, it will be high fives in Bute House today, I mean SNP HQ of course, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. 

And yet, how can this not cement Alex Salmond’s position as First Minister for the next five years? The demographic of the readership of the Scottish Sun is where any last battle between SNP vs Labour could have taken place, the scaremongering and the Nat-bashing. It is too late for Labour to write a manifesto that outscores the SNP’s if they did wish to fight on higher ground. 

So, game over? I’d say so.   

This poses an interesting question as to who the slightly higher quality Scotsman and robust but still Glasgow-centric Herald will back (place your bets now please!). Reading between the lines of the past few weeks, I can’t see either paper endorsing the SNP and Labour must be the favourite, even if a rationale would be difficult to word. They may perhaps ‘do a Guardian’ and back a thrd party and that won’t be the Tories, can’t surely be the Lib Dems and so could only be the Greens. I can’t imagine Patrick is holding out too many hopes there. 

However, when the SNP is clearly the people’s choice to be the largest party, if that moment does come to pass prior to May 5th, then the focus of a still rather mundane campaign will become who might support it, either with the SNP forming a minority Government or through a more formal coalition.

People do seem to be forgetting that Salmond’s team winning the most seats is not a mandate for a full implementation of its manifesto. One of the ‘other parties’ will win something from its manifesto into law and that deserves more scrutiny.  
   
There is of course many other ways of looking at this endorsement and, much like Brian Soutar’s £500k donation, it probably splits the field. Another intriguing aspect for me is whether News International really does back the SNP for Scotland or whether they are taking a wider view. After all, placed in a UK context, what is the best result for the Tories?

With David Cameron’s media chums backing Salmond to, possibly, poke Ed Miliband in the eye, is this the ultimate indulgence of SNP Tactical Voting? And, crucially, does it matter?

#SP11 – Why I’m voting for… (updated)

With the election coming up, I thought it might be nice to get a few folk in to tell us who they are voting for and why – in about 100 words.  If only politicians could do so just as succinctly.  Anyway, here’s some reasons folk are voting a particular way:

Dr Jonathan Blackwood (Perthshire North): I am based in the seat of Perthshire North, and only the four main parties are standing for the constituency election. I will be voting for the SNP as the least bad option here- Alex Salmond is the only credible candidate for First Minister from the four big parties.  My positive vote, will be cast on the list for the Scottish Greens. They have outlined a genuinely radical programme, a really effective campaigner in Patrick Harvie, and are the only party, with any chance of elected representation, who aren’t shuffling cards from the same shabby, dog-eared neo-liberal pack.”

Doug Daniel (Aberdeenshire South & North Kincardineshire): I’m voting for the SNP in May primarily because I want Scotland to be independent, and we won’t even get a referendum until there is a majority of pro-independence parties in Holyrood. In the meantime, I think the SNP’s first foray into government has been largely successful. They’ve delivered more than anyone thought possible as a minority government, their management of our resources has been excellent (for the first time ever, I feel confident government projects have been properly costed – the cost of the parliament building would not have risen ten-fold under the SNP), and their few mistakes can be put down to inexperience. Also, tell me this: when was the last time a government went a full parliamentary term without a sleaze scandal? Perhaps most of all, Alex Salmond has led Scotland as if she were already independent – no more “best wee country” rubbish – and I know that while he is FM, further education will remain free, and no new nuclear power stations will be built on Scottish land. That’s why my two votes will go to Maureen Watt and the SNP.

“Set in Darkness” (Linlithgow): I’m finding it very hard to choose who to vote for. Of the 5 choices, I can immediately rule out the extremist parties like the National Front, the Conservatives and Labour [his words, not ours – EDs].  Tactically, I should probably vote for the SNP to evict the current Labour MSP, Mary Mulligan. Fiona Hyslop is doing a lot of work in the area, unlike the LibDem candidate who cannot be said to have a presence in the area. As someone who thinks localism is very important, this is a fatal problem.  But the SNP?  Can I vote for a pro-Trump, pro-bridge party?  I hope to get answers from the candidates on some questions before making my final decision.  On the list?  This localist, environmentally aware, anti-trump, anti-bridge, anti-nuclear voter will be voting … Pensioners. No!  Green! Damn, I’ve spoilt my ballot paper.

Paris Gourtsoyannis (Edinburgh Southern): Like at the last election, I’ll be proud to split my vote. Even if I support one party before others, I believe democracy is about plurality and I want diverse views in parliament. My constituency vote will be going to my local MSP, Mike Pringle. I’m a Lib Dem member, but this is a personal vote for Mike.  I’ve thought a lot about my second vote. I gave it to the SNP in 2007; overall, I’ve been impressed with their term in government, and I want to see an SNP-led administration after 5 May, not a Labour-led one. I’ve also got a lot of time for Shirley-Anne Somerville in particular, but this time I’ll be voting Green. I think they’re running the best campaign of all the parties, and Patrick Harvie is one of the best parliamentarians in the UK, let alone Scotland. I’d like to see more Green MSPs to help put him in a coalition government.

Indy (blog commenter): I’m voting SNP, firstly, because I support Scottish independence.  Secondly, because the SNP Government has done a good job and I trust them. Yes, there have been disappointments – class sizes, LIT -  but also big improvements in the health service, policing, support for small business and much more.  Thirdly, the next few years will be hard work. Scotland will need a government that treats every part of the country fairly and governs in the national interest, without fear or favour. The SNP are grown-up enough to rise to that challenge.  On the evidence of the past four years, Labour aren’t.

Daniel Juett (Aberdeen Central): I’ll be using both my votes to help get Martin Ford elected for the Greens.  Martin has already proved that if his party does something fundamentally against his views he will not support them. People talk of the Greens supporting Labour in building new nuclear power stations (which I think would never happen), even if it hell froze over and the Green Party supported the idea I know Martin Ford wouldn’t, having seen him stand up to Aberdeenshire Council, the Liberal Democrats and Trump we know he wouldn’t.  He’ll skip party press calls to attend council meetings to help protect Aberdeenshire’s children from the education cuts, cuts due to council tax freezes and a refusal to look at raising additional money to protect the most vulnerable.

Ross McCafferty (Greenock & Inverclyde): As a paid up member of the SNP, I could use this vehicle to give you the List with a massive capital L. But that’s plain for all to see. The definition of a Government is how it goes about its business, be that the Cross References paranoia of the Coalition, or the limp to the finish, gallows humour of the Brown years. I fully believe that the SNP has governed with a pragmatism, ideological strength, humility and dedication that many thought was impossible with the advent of minority government. Two sworn party enemies such as the SNP and Labour voting together on a matter as important as the budget could not have been envisaged – and in my view couldn’t have been achieved – without the strength of the SNP ministerial team. That we are considered the strongest team against the party that was the establishment in Scotland for 50 years is testament to the strength of our team.  I’ll leave you with indisputable words of Nicola Sturgeon: “We have by far and away the best candidate for the job of First Minister.”  I’ll be voting twice for the SNP.

Douglas McLellan (Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale):  I’m voting for the Scottish Liberal Democrats for a number of reasons. My local MSP Jeremy Purvis is hard working and has responded well to all of the issues that his constituents have brought to him as well as the concerns my local community has sought his support on. Also, I want to show my support for the Lib Dems both in Scotland and Westminster. Finally, the manifesto in Scotland is bold and contains impressive ideas offer a different vision for Scotland. Devolution was about new ideas and that’s what the Scottish Liberal Democrats are offering the people of Scotland.

Aidan Skinner (Glasgow Kelvin): I’m voting Labour because I believe in public ownership where it makes sense, such as Scottish Water and possibly Scotrail. I believe in Co-operative and community ownership for everything from housing to power generation to start ups where employees benefit from their work. I’m voting Labour because I care about the future and think everybody needs to be able to read and have access to relevant training. I’m voting Labour because our planet’s important and Labour promises 80% of energy generated from renewables by 2020. I’m voting Labour because I’m a socialist and believe we achieve more together than apart.

Peter Warren (Edinburgh Northern & Leith): Working for an Independent MSP for the past 8 years you would expect me to say none of the Parties please, but you would be wrong. If my experience has taught me anything it is that the Parliament desperately needs independent thinkers. These brave souls, whoever they are can carry Party colours or not. The important thing for me is that they are able to analyse and assess each piece of business on its merits, not because it appears in a manifesto. For that reason alone, locally I will plump for Malcolm Chisholm, who may yet become a true independent.

John Whyte: I intend to use both of my votes for the Conservatives. While it may, in time, be proven wrong, I believe that the cuts program enacted by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition is the right course of action in our current economic situation and has helped to protect the nation as a whole from the catastrophes suffered in Ireland, Iceland and Portugal. I have also been impressed by the Conservatives’ constructive attitude towards the SNP minority government in Holyrood. I do not fear for an independent Scotland but do believe that we can achieve more as a constituent of the UK.

Thanks to all for their comments – I’m sure there’s plenty to think about in the above (including the absence of anyone voting Tory – if there are any, I’m happy to add them).  Also, kudos to Indy, Douglas, Aidan and Peter for doing it in EXACTLY 100 words.  Fair play – that’s what I asked for!

Salmond in poll position as the SNP enjoys The Big Mo

The big news in the Sunday papers, and what may well prove to be the game-changing moment of the campaign, is that the SNP has moved ahead of Labour in both the constituency and regional section of the polls.

The figures are:

SNP – 40%/35%
Labour – 37%/33%
Conservatives – 11%/12%
Lib Dems – 8%/7%
Greens – -/6%

In terms of seats (and using the same methodology from my half of #SP11 Regionwatch) I make that to be (constituency/regional):

SNP – 33/21 = 54
Labour – 37/12 = 49
Conservatives – 1/13 = 14 (only FPTP seat being Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, a 1,334 majority over SNP)
Lib Dems – 2/4 = 6 (majorities of only 711 and 1,164 in Orkney and Shetland respectively, both from the SNP)
Greens – 0/5 = 5 (2 in Lothians, 1 in Glasgow, 1 in H&I and 1 in MS&F)
Margo – 0/1 (my base assumption is that Margo will be comfortably re-elected)

Key FPTP wins for the SNP would include: Aberdeen Central (maj of 829 over Labour), Almond Valley (maj of 664 over Labour), Ayr (maj of 129 over Labour), Cunninghame North (maj of 572 over Labour), Edinburgh Pentlands (maj of 340 over Labour), Glasgow Southside (maj of 453 over Labour), Linlithgow (maj of 413 over Labour) and Stirling (maj of 150 over Labour)

That’s not to mention Airdrie & Shotts (SNP 165 votes short), Clydesdale (SNP 657 votes short), Edinburgh Eastern (SNP 16 votes short of Labour), Glasgow Kelvin (SNP 759 votes short of Labour)

A 5 seat winning margin may seem strong but there are more tight victories in my model for the SNP than there is for Labour so if Labour close the gap over the next few weeks and if a few of the above FPTP wins for the Nats are reversed then where does that leave us?

Well, keeping only Glasgow Southside as SNP gains or holds in the first list there and moving Aberdeen Central, Almond Valley, Ayr etc back to current incumbents, while keeping everything else in the model from this poll fixed, then the result becomes:

SNP – 52 (26/26)
Labour – 52 (42/10)
Conservatives – 13 (3/10)
Lib Dems – 7 (2/5)
Greens – 4 (0/4)
Margo – 1

So, neck and neck between Labour and the SNP with the Conservatives intriguingly holding the balance of power. The above also highlights the advantages for Greens in voting tactically for the SNP in many regions, finishing now with 4 seats rather than 5 (losing the 2nd Lothians MSP) whereas the Lib Dems conversely move up to 7 from 6 (picking up a second list MSP in North East).

However, this is not to take away from a remarkable achievement from the SNP, borne out of two main strategies

(1) – pitch the second vote as a vote for who should be First Minister (which it isn’t, this is a parliamentary election, not a Presidential one)
(2) – sell Salmond (and this poll only include 30%-50% of the impact of the SNP manifesto launch and Salmond’s impressive BBC Question Time performance as the fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday)

So, it’s a stellar result for the Nats at just the right time and that momentum is growing. The SNP were 8/1 to win most seats at the start of the year when Labour were streets ahead in the polls, the SNP were 3/1 to win most seats on the evening of the STV debates and today those odds are only 5/4. Being the official odds on favourites for Holyrood 2011 surely beckons and what then for Iain Gray?

SNP voters can now effectively be split into two, there is the ~25%-30% baseload SNP voter that has stuck with the party for at least the majority of the past four years, willing to back the party if asked by a pollster. Then there are the recent converts, the Scots who intend to vote SNP today but would have voted for another party months or even weeks ago.

The key question for me now is not so much what has changed but what would have to change over the next few weeks for those voters to go back from whence they came, and let’s assume that that is back to Labour.

Wheeling out Gordon Brown, as will be the case this month, will not make much of a difference, the election isn’t about independence so attacking the SNP on that score isn’t an option and on policies such as apprenticeships, free education, renewable energy and council tax freezes, Labour policies are more to do with damage limitation than outdoing the SNP in any way. So I really do think Scottish Labour’s options for victory are closing to a point that inevitability around a May 5th defeat isn’t far off.

The only potential fix that a clearly panicked Labour group may go with is to push even harder the clearly flawed message of ‘Tories at Westminster means you need Labour to protect you’. The fear-mongering, the negativity that has cost them before, most notably in 2007, might be enough to scare a few former loyal supporters back into line but it would be desperate stuff. Furthermore, if we really are past the tipping point, then such a negative message could only serve to increase the SNP majority as individual voter behavious becomes a group phenomenon. This ‘now that the Tories are in power’ mantra is a message that Labour has chosen to put at the front of its manifesto and it is linked to many of the key quotes in the press recently. It may come to symbolise the next stage of this campaign but I personally can’t see it working as the mesage is getting mixed.

At the end of the day, voters want to know what they’re getting from who they vote for and the SNP message is clear – five year Council Tax freeze, no nuclear power and a drive towards 100% renewable electrical power by 2020. Easy to understand and easy to digest. The same is largely true of the Greens (public transport a higher priority, raise revenue to offset cuts, no Forth Road bridge) and Lib Dems and Tories.

Labour’s key themes seem to be a focus on cancer waiting times, facing up to David Cameron and a two year freeze on Council Tax. It just doesn’t gel right somehow and, crucially, it doesn’t seem enough to get those lost votes back.

Alex Salmond and his team may well be joyously sliding down the electoral mountain over the next few weeks and, for once, the most important poll may not be the next one, or the one after that or even the one on May 5th. To all intents and purposes, it may prove to be this one if it turns out that the next time Labour lead in a Holyrood poll on either the constituency or regional vote is some way far off in the distance.

And finally, tactical voting considerations – this poll predicts a clean sweep of 10 FPTP constituencies for the SNP in the North East, a region where my model predicts 4 Labour lists MSPs and 0 Green MSPs. Even with 9 FPTP constituencies for the SNP there seems little chance of the party winning a list MSP. Is it worth SNP voters considering voting tactically for a fellow anti-nuclear party? Have the Nats finally found what Glasgow is to Labour and will it have the savvy to use that local opportunity to full advantage?

Election round up – follow the leader

Four weeks down, three to go.  There is light at the end of the tunnel, or at least polling booth.

A good way to get a sense of what seats the parties are targeting and how the campaigns are going is by playing follow the leader.  Anyone who remembers the 2007 election might recall that Alex Salmond spent rather a lot of time campaigning in Stirling, Alloa, Kilmarnock, Glenrothes and even the Western Isles.  That’s because the SNP’s canvass returns were telling them that these seats were shifting.  And while SNP wins came as a surprise to many, reading the leadership travel runes in the campaign definitely gave signs of real hope.

So where have the four main party leaders (and other leading party figures) been on their travels this week and can we glean anything meaningful from their journeys?

Since last Saturday, SNP leading lights have visited Renfrewshire, Glasgow Southside, Dundee, North East Fife, Glasgow again, Stirling and er, Liverpool.

Labour has been to Edinburgh, East Kilbride, Stirling, Ochil, Edinburgh Eastern, Aberdeen and Dunfermline.

The Conservatives have visited Falkirk, Perth, Cunninghame North, East Lothian, Edinburgh and Ayr, while the Liberal Democrats have been to Glasgow, Argyll and Bute, Midlothian South, Aberdeenshire East, Fife and Midlothian South (again).

I do hope they are all choosing to offset their carbon emissions….

These are probably not all the destinations covered.  No doubt Ed Miliband and Iain Gray called in at Dundee on the way from Aberdeen to Dunfermline today.  And the SNP leader’s trip to Renfrewshire probably shoehorned in as many of the seats in that area as possible.

But overall, it seems that Labour and the SNP are already targeting in terms of expending leadership energy and giving a boost to local campaigns.  Both appear to be trying to shore up marginals they hold, such as the SNP’s Dundee seats and Labour’s Aberdeen Central.  But their voter identification data would appear to indicate that seats like Stirling and Edinburgh Eastern are currently on a knife edge. 

Interestingly, the SNP reckons it is gaining more of the soft Lib Dem vote, hence the parachute into North East Fife.  The burdz not sure if this isn’t just a bit of mischief making, given that it hasn’t yet featured on the Lib Dem leadership’s radar.  Time will tell.  If we see Salmond in seats like Caithness, Aberdeen South and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch then the Lib Dems can really start worrying.

At the moment, they seem determined to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Midlothian South in a bid to keep Jeremy Purvis at Holyrood.  In fact, if  Tavish spends any more time here, he might just qualify for a vote himself.   They do not seem to have written off Dunfermline West just yet and the amount of focus on Argyll and Bute suggests they think they have a chance of retaking this seat.

As for the Conservatives, it is hard to see what strategy is being deployed, other than keeping Annabel busy.  Falkirk?  Cunninghame North?  Nope, can’t see the point at all.  Though spending time in East Lothian and giving Derek Brownlee plenty of media airtime suggests they are worried about him retaining a seat through the South of Scotland list (as all we experts have already predicted!)

Despite the campaign being half way through and the very tight position at the top of the polls for the SNP and Labour, it is hard to discern a clear pattern.  Expect their focus to narrow in the remaining three weeks to the absolutely key marginals.  Watch carefully and as with 2007, by following the leader all the way to the finish line, you might just be able to spot which candidates have been abandoned as lost causes, which seats might spring a surprise result, and ultimately, who is going to win the election.

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