Scottish Tory leadership: Runners and riders

It is now over a month since the Scottish Parliament election which brought a majority SNP Government and the resignations of three party leaders.  Willie Rennie has succeeded Tavish Scott for the Liberal Democrats (though with only 5 MSPs, there was a small pool of potential leaders and no stomach for a fight) but Iain Gray and Annabel Goldie remain in place as “lame duck” leaders until such time as reviews are completed and leadership elections are held.  I’m sure we’ll get to the Labour leadership contest in time, but I’m going to focus on the Conservative contest for the moment.

The first thing is, when will it be?  And the answer is… well, we don’t know.  If the party are happy to conduct it under the old rules (pre-Sanderson review – pdf here) then the election could go ahead at any point.  But should the party want to adopt the recommendations from the Sanderson review, it would have to wait until the review is okayed by its Scottish conference in September.  Assuming that goes okay, the leadership election would subsequently take about 6-8 weeks for nominations, postal ballots to be returned etc…  Thus Annabel Goldie resigned on 7 May 2011 and will likely remain leader until late October at the earliest.  That strikes me as a strange situation.

Nevertheless, let’s have a look at the likely candidates.

In May’s election, the Scottish Conservatives elected 15 MSPs.  Taking Annabel Goldie out of the equation (as she’s standing down) there are 14 potential replacements.  Of those, we can probably rule out Alex Fergusson, Jamie McGrigor, Nanette Milne and Mary Scanlon who are older than auntie Annabel, as well as former leader David McLetchie, Margaret Mitchell and John Scott who are just slightly younger.  Each of those noted are still able politicians, don’t get me wrong – I don’t want to be accused of ageism here – but I suspect that if Annabel Goldie is considering standing down, none of them would seriously consider stepping into her shoes.

So that reduces the field by seven.  Of those remaining, three (Gavin Brown, Ruth Davidson and John Lamont) are in their thirties, two are in their forties (Murdo Fraser and Alex Johnstone) and two are in their fifties (Jackson Carlaw and Liz Smith).  I haven’t heard anything suggesting Alex Johnstone or Liz Smith are considering bids for to be leader, while Gavin Brown is a talent, and I fully expect him to be leader of the Scottish Tories one day, I don’t think it will be this time around.  Indeed, he may well decide that the next leader will have to be the reformer, and the best time to be leader will be after them.  With that in mind, that leaves four candidates whom the media have mentioned in connection with the job:

Murdo Fraser – probably the front-runner at the moment, the Scottish Tories’s deputy leader is expected by most to step up to the top job after a 6 year apprenticeship.  At 45, he’s had the experience of being in the parliament for ten years already and is an able debater.

Jackson Carlaw – was being heavily touted pre-election but let a notional Tory majority of 3,500 in Eastwood fall to Labour’s Ken Macintosh.  Also carries past baggage as deputy chair of the party and some question marks with regards to his financial background.  Sources say he has been trawling for votes already though, so will be interesting to see how that pans out.  I think if he had won Eastwood he’d have had a better chance, but as it is I think he’s fallen back a little.

John Lamont – at thirty-five, he’d be young for the position, but he won a borders constituency seat in 2007 and now holds the biggest non-SNP majority at Holyrood.  He has a large following in the borders and – with Derek Brownlee out of the picture – would be the youthful face of the Scottish Tories.  I’m not sure how much the wider party would support him, but if he can get support from outwith his own backyard (which I understand is quite a large pool of support anyway) he might well be the candidate to beat.

Ruth Davidson – the Scottish Tories’ only new MSP and at thirty-two, their youngest.  But don’t let that fool you.  She’d be a dark horse, but if she decided to stand, it could blow the contest wide open.  She’d get plenty of support from the younger, more pragmatic generation of Tories in Scotland and would be a very different prospect to the other three.  A wild card, to be sure, but one that make the contest more exciting.

I think if we were considering MPs and MEPs as well (ED – it wouldn’t take that long, there are only 2 names in those categories…) Struan Stevenson would get a mention, but it’d be near impossible for him to lead the party from Brussels.  Which, for me, makes the contest between the aforementioned four.

If I was a betting man (which I am occasionally), I’d probably shun the short odds on Murdo Fraser and instead take the slightly less fancied John Lamont.  I mean, it’ll probably be Murdo… but I do have a sneaky feeling that John Lamont might just have the support.  But he’d also be pretty young to lead them.  Perhaps he’ll sit it out and wait for the next time as well.

What do we think?  Could Jackson Carlaw or Ruth Davidson beat either of them to it?  Or will it be a safe handover from Annabel to Murdo?

A little house on a hope and a prairie

Many call the ‘right to buy’ scheme a well-intentioned disaster. Others are less generous. However you view the venture (or madcap adventure, if you like), a Government owning less houses will inevitably lead to problems if demand for social housing increases.

I am attending a discussion event later today (Facebook link) that will focus on this very problem of housing shortages with the attention being strictly on London but, in truth, the event could be held in any town or city the length and breadth of the UK and still be relevant. I suspect the overriding message will be, do all you can to make sure you are not left vulnerable in the coming years and dependent on the state as there will be fewer and fewer guarantees that it will be there for you. It can be easy to coast along with life thinking you are safe but a job can be lost in an instant, rent demands can then soon go unpaid and suddenly that cosy life you had built for yourself can be all to precarious. Homelessness and the need for Social Housing is less of an ‘us and them’ situation that many of us, myself certainly included, give it credit for.

At the core of this issue is surely the structure that we have in place for financing homes. Housing Associations lend from banks, use that money to finance properties and their maintenance and then write the value of those properties down over a certain lifetime. One problem with this situation is that the Housing Associations do not accurately recognise the value of the properties that they hold at the end of a given asset’s lifetime.

Another problem with banks lending money to Housing Associations to maintain housing stock is that banks have a duty to their shareholders to maximise value, Housing Associations have a duty to provide accommodation for as many of those in their catchment area that require it. There is a conflict of interest there and that conflict can only ever come to a head and realistically only with one winner – the banks.

We may currently have a social housing crisis but this is with Housing Associations enjoying loans that are way below commercial terms, lent out by banks during the boom years when they couldn’t get enough customers onto their books quickly enough. It remains to be seen whether, when these loans need to be refinanced, the banks decide to maintain the generous rates or pull the margins up to commercial levels, devastating the current model for funding council homes and creating massive funding gaps and exacerbated housing shortages in local areas all across the country.

If this does turn out to be the case, then in a decade or two, you don’t want to run the risk of being a person with nowhere to go and no-one to turn to. However, with communities and families being broken up due to incessant travel and increased marital breakdown, with the coalition’s faster than necessary cutting of public spending and a deep uncertainty over what impact global warming will have on peaceful trade into the future, the number of displaced, distressed peoples going forward can surely only increase. A solution is required.

One potential solution is a 20-30 year churn of existing housing stock on a rolling basis. I don’t know to what extent this already happens but a Government owning homes outright, recording the assets on an ongoing basis at market value (in accordance with up-to-date International Accounting Standards) rather than depreciating down to zero, selling the properties into the private market and then using the proceeds to build newer, cheaper properties to ensure housing stocks are always maintained. It’s a bit like how the fishing industry should work really, making sure that stocks are always replenished.

Private involvement in the financing of housing stock may well be unsustainable unless banks appreciate that they have a shared duty – to shareholders and to communities in which they operate. Leveraging private markets to maximise the value of public sector assets is something quite different and, from my rather distant perspective, this is where Governments are missing a trick.

Maybe I am biased and perhaps this is a bit crass, but I can’t help but think that a left-leaning Scottish Government with some Ministers representing the poorer side of Scotland will be better prepared and better briefed for tackling this problem than the millionaire’s club that is the UK coalition. Certainly the SNP’s main priority appears to be the commendable building of an extra 5,000 council homes this parliamentary term with housing given a £16m increase in 2011-12, while the coalition’s priority appears to be getting people out of council homes. The UK Government, to be fair, is committed to building an extra 150,000 council homes this Parliament but that is after halving the budget from £8.4bn to £4.5bn (from 2011 to 2014) so how that will work remains to be seen. At least the Scottish Government’s is putting its spending where its mouth it. (Note – That 5,000 extra doesn’t sound like a golden bullet solution but it is welcome nonetheless)

All that said, the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations was “disappointed” at the SNP manifesto’s offering to Social Housing and is specifically concerned at the lack of “commitments from the SNP to deal with the huge drop in new build by associations, due to a cut in government funding”. The SFHA also called for “a commitment (to) reverse the changes in funding for housing adaptations, which were changed recently with no consultation with the sector”. How this body lobbies and regards the SNP Government will be key in the years to come.

It is interesting that in London, skyscraper developments outside of the city centre can be viewed as luxurious (and priced accordingly) while, in Glasgow, not dissimilar buildings are viewed as tantamount to the slums and get marked for demolition. The red road flats are (were?) 2.5 miles from the City Centre but their potential was sadly never realised. Perhaps creative thinking rather than always starting from scratch and simply building upon building is also required. It is certainly a problem that should transcend one party being wrong and another one being right, a philosophy that will hopefully prove to be the case over the next four or five years both down here in London and up north in Scotland. I hesitate to roll out the t-word but a tram line from Balornock/Barmulloch into the City Centre and/or tax incentives for businesses setting up locally could boost the prestige of the area and could arguably negate the need to knock down homes when accommodation is at a premium. Who knows, but knocking down when we can’t afford to build up just doesn’t seem right.

In the meantime, I guess keeping eyes and ears out for those in need, knowing what local charities exist and require support etc, is the best way to assist what is an ever-growing problem for whichever town, city or nation you happen to live in. Here’s hoping for a constructive debate tomorrow.

The so-called Eurocrisis: separating myth from reality

On our travels in Strasbourg we invited Scottish MEPs to guest post for Better Nation on the topic of their choice. First to take up our offer is Labour’s David Martin MEP, former Vice President of the European Parliament itself.  David can be found elsewhere on Twitter, Facebook and his own blog.

To read the British media or to listen to many British politicians, you would think that the euro as such was in crisis and about to fall apart. This is sometimes accompanied by a smug smile about how wise we supposedly were not to have implemented Labour’s policy to join the euro. A little more factual analysis would be welcome.

For a start, the euro as a whole is not in deep crisis. It has strengthened in value on international monetary markets (while the pound has plummeted); it has throughout its existence maintained a low and stable inflation rate; the balance of payments of the Eurozone is in broad equilibrium; and the euro is beginning to gain the advantage of being held across the world as an alternative reserve currency to the dollar. Economic growth has returned to the Eurozone as a whole (and especially in countries like Germany and France of comparable economic magnitudes to Britain, where growth is still stagnating).

Yes, some Eurozone countries have hit problems of excessive debt – just as have a number of countries outside of the Eurozone (such as Iceland, Hungary, Romania, Japan and potentially the USA). Various countries have received loans and this includes three Eurozone countries (do the press ever mention any others?). These three countries amount to a total of 6% of the Eurozone economy.

The loans are not actually “bailouts”. They are not grants or gifts. Nor has there been any assumption of liability for their debts. So it is wrong to say that taxpayers from other countries are having to fork out: the loans even attract interest so, unless there is a default, the lending countries will gain financially.

In fact, we would do well to stand back and look at the wider picture.  After all, Europe was hit three years ago by the biggest economic tsunami since the Great Depression. Yet we avoided most of the mistakes that we made in the 1930s:

  • We avoided protectionism — in no small part thanks to the single European market.
  • We largely avoided competitive currency devaluations — in no small part thanks to the euro (just imagine for one moment what would have happened if we had still had the French franc, the Spanish peseta, the Italian lira, the German mark, the Belgian franc and so on: there would have been in turmoil on the international currency markets in addition to the turmoil we already had).
  • We agreed on a fiscal stimulus at the depth of the recession (with an exit strategy) which helped turn the corner – in no small part thanks to Gordon Brown, lest we forget.

As a result, we have avoided the total meltdown that was a real possibility at one point and – except in a few countries, returned within two years to economic growth.

Nonetheless, three problems have arisen.

First, some countries have excessive levels of public debt. They had been profligate in the good times, meaning that they no longer had a margin of manoeuvre for the bad times. Greece is the most blatant case, compounded by fiscal fraud committed by the previous Conservative government there, and now in a very difficult situation.

Second, some smaller countries with large banking sectors suffered immensely when those banking sectors collapsed. Ireland (inside the euro) and Iceland (outside the euro) were the most blatant cases.

Third, some governments are taking deficits as an excuse for an all out assault on the welfare state, dismantling spending programmes with glee. I will leave it to the reader to guess which are the most blatant cases.

None of those three problems are a direct result of the EU policies or euro zone membership. They are a result of national policies and decisions. Nonetheless, they have underlined how interdependent we all are, in the Eurozone, of course, but also beyond, because of the single European market. A default by Greek or Irish banks would have major economic consequences in other EU countries, whether inside the euro or not. Britain, with its large financial sector, is particularly vulnerable and its maintenance of a separate currency is no protection.

That is why the countries of Europe have decided that it is worth coordinating and conferring more than before on their national macroeconomic policies. Strengthened macroeconomic coordination is a necessity. We now know that a housing bubble in Ireland or a banking problem in Germany can very rapidly become everybody’s problem. We have also learned that it is no good to focus just on deficits, but we need to look also at overall debt levels and other macroeconomic imbalances, such as asset bubbles and trade balances.

Indeed, looking at countries’ long-term competitiveness situations, led Germany to propose a “Competitiveness Pact”, on top of the extra co-ordination already agreed . It was, in its initial form, biased towards retrenchment and reductions in wages that made it unacceptable to a large majority of other Member States. It was replaced by a “Euro-plus Pact” put forward by the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy. This was accepted by all but four EU Member States: UK, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Sweden — all currently governed by Conservative parties. All Member States currently governed by socialists signed up for this new version.

This was not because it is a socialist program – that would scarcely be realistic when there is currently an overwhelming majority of centre-right governments. But it is now focused on issues which all governments have to address: how in the long run to make our pension systems sustainable with ageing populations, how to arrange our tax systems in a way that does not mean that countries undermines their neighbours, how to combine fairness and flexibility in the labour market?

There remains much room for political debate on this. The left-right divide in the European Parliament has been accentuated – quite rightly as these are choices between policies, not choices between countries. But there is certainly a greater recognition that the key to the future, as we exit the immediate crisis, is how to improve the medium and long term performance of the European economy. This involves tackling structural problems. We must therefore focus relentlessly on the Europe 2020 strategy with its targets to improve education outputs, investment levels in R&D, poverty reduction, and climate change mitigation. The focus on immediate problems has detracted from the Europe 2020 strategy and we must rectify that balance.

And as to deficits, these are coming down. With immense problems in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland (where there is little choice) and the UK (where there is), but more gradually in most Member States.

The argument is about how this should be done – which is a matter for national decision not for the European institutions. It is up to each country to decide whether to cut expenditure or raise taxes. If cutting expenditure, what to cut, and if raising taxes, what to tax. Those are political battles to be fought at national level.

But in the long run, deficits must be reduced. From a socialist perspective, there is no point in accumulating public debt so that ultimately a higher and higher proportion of public spending goes on servicing the debt (paying a class of rentiers) instead of on public services or public investment. Of course, we must reserve the right to have deliberate counter cyclical deficits at times of economic downturn. But one of the lessons of the crisis is that this will be all the more effective if we have not already built up large debt levels. Keynes always intended “Keynesian” policies to be symmetrical, with deficits in the bad times balanced by surpluses in the good times. Britain didn’t do badly in this respect, thanks to Gordon Brown’s marriage to “prudence” (with Britain’s overall debt levels lower than Germany’s), but as we come out of the crisis we must learn that lesson across the whole of Europe.

The greatest lesson of all, however, is that whether we like it or not, we are all interdependent. Britain’s maintenance of a separate currency does not make it immune. Our trading patterns, our participation in the single European market, the cross-ownership of our banks with those in other EU countries (and the loans and liabilities they have), our involvement in the EU decision-making procedures and our simple geographic location, all mean that any pretence that it has nothing to do with us is futile.

Ideology trumps sovereignty? (part 1)

A two-part guest post from Stuart Winton of Planet Politics.  It was a lengthy post so we got him to split it in two, and we’ll post up the second part of it in a few days.

If nothing else then Scottish independence is surely about sovereignty. Thus the intention is to repatriate powers currently reserved to Westminster, such as the ability to raise taxes, to borrow when necessary to finance public spending and regarding macroeconomic policy more generally.

However, the recent debate about the definition and limits of ideas like devo-max, independence-lite and confedaralism demonstrates the difficulty with the concept of sovereignty; for example, in what looks like the SNP’s vision of an independent Scotland foreign affairs might remain partly at the UK level, while monetary policy would be decided either by the Bank of England or the European Central Bank, whereas the issue of national defence seems particularly vexed.

The currency issue seems especially difficult as regards the questions of independence and sovereignty. For some time the SNP seemed committed to the single European currency, but for obvious reasons the retention of sterling now seems to be the preferred option, in the medium-term at least. But that Alex Salmond could even contemplate an independent Scotland joining the euro – with interest rates decided in Frankfurt – underlines the paradoxical nature of so-called sovereignty, not to mention the notion of independence generally. If monetary policy decided in London primarily for economic conditions in the south-east of England is considered inappropriate – the original rationale for a Scottish currency – then surely interest rates decided primarily for France and Germany would be even less palatable for Scotland, as several of the smaller eurozone member states have found to their cost in the difficult economic climate of recent years.

By the same token, Mr Salmond’s recent objection to aspects of human rights law being decided by the Supreme Court in London – and thus a perceived threat to the independence of the Scottish legal system – seems somewhat ironic in view of the alternative, as outlined by a Scottish Government spokesman: “The issue is not human rights – it is that the distinct Scottish legal system should have direct access to the European Court in Strasbourg just like every other legal jurisdiction”.

The irony of the latter point seemed lost on one contributor to the Herald’s website, for example, who talked of “Unionist jackboots trampling Scottish Jurisprudence” and opined: “It is about the core foundation of the Scottish state and its senior judges being humiliated and deemed inferior by a London court”.

Slightly more recently – and less luridly – justice secretary Kenny MacAskill claimed the Supreme Court judges’ knowledge of Scots law was limited to what they might pick up on a trip to the Edinburgh Festival, while paradoxically stating: “We want Scotland to be able to deal directly with Strasbourg. At the present moment we cannot do that. What we want is to be in the same situation as other countries. We want to be a normal European country.” Similarly, in a subsequent Newsnicht interview the first minister seemed all over the place regarding judicial sovereignty, slamming the “aggressive” intervention by judges in “another country”, while extolling the virtues of the European court and highlighting the fact that the European Convention on Human Rights was authored by a Scot.

But of course we are represented in Europe as a constituent part of the UK, so to that extent Scotland is not a ‘normal’ European country, and there’s little to suggest that the Scottish people desire otherwise. Clearly all this could change with independence, but the SNP Government doesn’t want a referendum on the issue at present, thus to that extent Mr MacAskill should either bring it on (to coin a phrase!) or get on with using the currently devolved powers to run the country.

And it’s not as if Messrs Salmond and MacAskill’s obvious chagrin at the Supreme Court’s decision per se was likely to have been assuaged by having the issue decided by the European Court of Human Rights, which learned opinion seems to suggest would take a similarly liberal approach to interpreting the human rights convention, and it also seems unlikely that the latter court would be any better versed in Scots law than two of the Supreme Court’s justices, Lord Hope and Lord Rodger, who have held the posts of Lord Justice General of Scotland and Lord President of the Court of Session in Scotland. Moreover, the ECHR is labouring under a lengthy backlog of cases, thus neither procedurally nor in terms of substantive interpretation of the convention is there any obvious benefit to be had in relation to SNP distaste at the effective exoneration of Nat Fraser, except to the extent that judgement day might have been delayed for some years – and justice denied? – if access to the Supreme Court had been unavailable and hence awkward questions about the Scottish criminal justice system avoided.

But all this brings to mind the SNP’s desire for an ‘independent’ Scotland to join the European Union and thus have national sovereignty compromised by the full panoply of treaty obligations, regulations and directives which would take precedence over domestic legislation and case law, and that’s even ignoring the issues of eurozone membership and monetary policy.

And this EU law would ultimately be under the auspices of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, a jurisdiction in addition to and completely separate from that of the European Convention on Human Rights and associated court in Strasbourg.

Thus in simple terms the dominant Nationalist mindset seems to say, ‘London bad: Frankfurt, Brussels and Strasbourg good’. Or a political and economic union of 60 million people bad, a political and economic union of 500 million people good. Hence something of a sovereignty paradox, but can all this be reconciled?  Of course, many prominent supporters of independence have a problem with these contradictions, perhaps most neatly encapsulated in opposition to the SNP’s oxymoronic “Independence in Europe” mantra, albeit that it’s not heard so much these days. More specifically, Professor John Kay, a member of the SNP Government’s Council of Economic Advisers, said recently: “In the modern world, economic sovereignty for small nations is inescapably limited, and political sovereignty is largely symbolic.” Of course, as Professor Kay’s Scotland on Sunday article makes clear, the limits of economic sovereignty depend on which uncertain course an independent Scotland takes, while his point about political sovereignty perhaps over eggs the pudding a bit.

On the other hand, Gerry Hassan refers to a “post-nationalist politics, one of shared, fluid sovereignties”, which may have some merit in an increasingly complex and interdependent world, but there’s certainly nothing ‘fluid’ about ceding sovereignty to the EU and in terms of a single currency; these are long-term commitments fundamentally antithetical to national sovereignty – ‘European superstate’, anyone? Thus ‘fluid sovereignties’ seems more a euphemism for contradiction and confusion rather than any kind of compelling explanation.

Of course, another prominent attempt to square the sovereignty circle manifests itself in the claim that Scotland would be pooling sovereignty with the EU on a consensual basis, a course of action freely and democratically chosen by the people of Scotland rather than having it thrust upon us via Westminster and the UK.

Again this seems semi-plausible, but the argument portrays Scotland as some sort of repressed colony at the height of imperial Britain, not a twenty-first century participative democracy whose citizens – to repeat a point made earlier – have never demonstrated any obvious desire to secede from the UK, as the several-year delay in the independence referendum ably demonstrates; if the Scotland Bill and the various other powers requested by Alex Salmond are as imperative to Scotland’s future as claimed, then surely these should be sidelined and referendum-enabling legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament forthwith to hasten the repatriation of the full panoply of desired powers?

By the same token, May’s election was self-evidently about who should run a devolved Scotland – and in view of the claimed increasing sophistication of Scottish voters there’s no reason why the SNP shouldn’t become the ‘natural party of (Holyrood) government’ (and indeed perhaps plenty of reasons why the SNP should be the most obvious natural party of Holyrood government) – without it indicating an endorsement of independence. Moreover, Labour trounced the SNP in Scotland in the last major electoral test in the UK context, namely the general election which took place precisely one year before the Holyrood landslide; what changed between then and now, apart from the seat of parliament in question? (The other obvious difference is addressed later).

But another angle on the sovereignty issue is that an independent Scotland would take its place at the international diplomacy dinner table as a fully sovereign nation state (sic!) and therefore have its own say in world affairs and hence be able influence the geopolitical environment.  Where, precisely? The G8? The G20? The G100-odd? Or perhaps joining (or displacing) the UK as a permanent member of the UN Security Council? Of course, the stock Nationalist answer is very probably that Scotland would rather not be part of the UK representation on the Security Council, thank you very much, but would Scotland have any more international influence as a separate entity than (indirectly) as a member of the UK?

However, it’s surely the case that Scotland would have less influence at the EU level (with near-30 member states) than it currently has as a constituent part of the UK, where indeed it’s often been claimed that Scotland has had influence disproportionate to its size; during the ‘new Labour’ years, for example.

Again, however, from the Nationalist perspective that’s the wrong kind of influence, and thus the second part of this post will suggest that Scottish independence is less about sovereignty per se than incompatible political ideologies.

 


How not to run a referendum campaign.

Silvio praysSilvio Berlusconi could be forgiven for feeling confident ahead of yesterday’s referendums (even if there’s not much else he should be forgiven for). The 50% turnout threshold hadn’t been met for more than 15 years, and you might assume this week’s series of votes on closing nuclear power, blocking water privatisation, and letting corruption trials go ahead would go the same way.

But he didn’t trust to luck there. He downplayed them as only an oligarch of his sort can – his TV stations barely mentioned the votes, he didn’t campaign, and he tried to block the votes in the courts. The entire campaign wasn’t about defending nuclear power, water sell-offs, or corruption (I’d have liked to see the posters for that last one), it was about winning by default by keeping turnout low.

Loyal Berlusconi supporters no doubt stayed away rather than voting for nukes, sell-offs and bungs, meaning the overall results all came in at roughly 95% against the government.

The glorious, joyous, wonderful irony. His tactic could hardly have backfired more comprehensively. Even if every single non-voter had turned out and voted for Berlusconi’s positions he wouldn’t have had a prayer: a 95% vote on 57% turnout would have been a 54% vote against him on a 100% turnout (on that assumption). So the game-playing could never have won, and it only ensured the opposition won a victory which seemed disproportionately decisive.

It’s great to see such an extreme example of a negative campaign strategy fail so clearly, and it’s an object lesson against turnout thresholds (not that non-Tory Scots will need any reminding of that). Your time’s nearly up, Silvio. Now let’s close Scotland’s nuclear stations too.