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#SP11 Region Watch – Lothians

Mar 23

Posted by Jeff in Elections | 33 Comments

Here we are then, region 3 in our 8-part series of looking at the regions partaking in the Scottish Parliament elections and speculating over who may win where based largely on recent polling, but also a little bit on transparent hunches here and there. Let’s kick off shall we:

Almond Valley – The tightest constituency after the boundary changes were applied to the 2007 result, with the SNP notional victors by a slender 4 votes. Yes, 4 votes. Angela Constance should be a popular candidate locally but any SNP victory would have to go down as a surprise as there’s no reason why this constituency shouldn’t follow the national swing. Labour gain – Laurence Fitzpatrick

Edinburgh Central – On paper this is something of a four-way contest but in reality (in my view) a straight dogfight between Labour and the Lib Dems. This is student territory if my local geography is correct and I see the Lib Dem voteshare sinking even deeper than the national swing we are seeing in the polls. Labour hold – Sarah Boyack

Edinburgh Eastern – Another tight contest from the 2007 notional results with the SNP ahead by only 545 votes. There are probably too many local factors at play here to put too much stock in the national swing from the polls so it is something of a judgement call. On one hand the incumbent is Kenny MacAskill, a highly visible Minister which will come with an electoral benefit. On the other hand (1) the challenger is Ewan Aitken who is the former leader of the Council so no stranger to the electorate (2) Kenny is guaranteed re-election via the lists which Ewan is surely reminding the voters (3) the Labour machine in this part of Edinburgh is fierce, winning a UK-level award at party conference last year and confounding many expectations with a super comfortable victory in the Westminster elections (4) There is a sizeable Lib Dem vote from 2007 that, if polls are anything to go by, will largely, tactically go to Labour. I say all this to set up what I think will happen – Labour gain – Ewan Aitken

Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Despite regular speculation that the incumbent would be retiring, this should be a straightforward win for Labour despite the Lib Dems and the recently parachuted-in Shirley-Anne Somerville vying for main challenger position. Labour hold – Malcolm Chisholm

Edinburgh Pentlands – A three-horse race if you look at it one way and a safe Tory seat if you look at it another. David McLetchie appears to be a popular MSP in these parts (and nationally). Labour and the SNP are effectively neck-and-neck, 2,600 votes shy of the Conservatives’ 11,178 from 2007. Applying the national swing gives the Conservatives a 1,000 lead which seems a reasonable cushion before even considering an incumbency factor. Tory hold – David McLetchie

Edinburgh Southern – Labour are in clear second place here but the Lib Dems have a 3,955 lead from 2007. A lot will depend on the strength of Mike Pringle’s personal vote (which I have no view on) but I think the Lib Dems will fight just enough on the doorsteps to hold on to this one Lib Dem hold – Mike Pringle

Edinburgh Western – A reasonably safe Lib Dem hold – Margaret Smith

Linlithgow – Fiona Hyslop and Mary Mulligan renew old rivalries from 2007 as the SNP seek to close a 294 majority from 2007 (old boundaries, maj = 1,150). The boundaries have been kind but unless we start to see the SNP pulling ahead in the national polls, I can see no reason why there should be a surprise gain here. Labour hold – Mary Mulligan

Midlothian North & Musselburgh – A similar situation to Linlithgow but with a wider majority for Labour to defend over the SNP from 2007. Rhona Brankin may be stepping down but an SNP gain would still be a shock. Labour gain – Bernard Harkins

So that is the contentious constituencies out of the way, now for the regional breakdown on the basis of a national voteshare of Lab-37%, SNP-34%,Con-15%,LD-10%,Grn-5% (adjusting, as always, for the specific regional split by party in 2007)

1 – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
2 – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
3 – SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville)
4 – Green (Alison Johnstone)
5 – Ind (Margo MacDonald)
6 – SNP (Angela Constance)
7 – Cons (Gavin Brown)

8 – SNP (George Kerevan)

NB: The Greens could win 2 MSPs here and I’m sure it could be done in a number of ways but by my calculations, the Conservative national voteshare would have to fall to around 12.7% and the Green vote share be at around 6.7% to enable this to happen, unless of course the SNP were to start dropping to below 30% (which I find unlikely).

Tactical voting considerations – The Lib Dems do not win an extra MSP if they miss out on one of Edinburgh Western or Edinburgh Southern. Consequently, a tactical vote (from a Green or SNP perspective) would be to consider voting Lib Dem in their winnable seats in this region. As the Conservatives are close to not getting a second MSP from the regional vote if they win Edinburgh Pentlands (but would definitely win one if McLetchie lost out), then a tactical vote, again from a Green or SNP perspective, is to vote David McLetchie in Edinburgh Pentlands.

“Vote Tory”, what a strange way to sign off on a region post but that is how the Lothians works sometimes; you often have to go backwards in order to move forwards. Just ask the Edinburgh Trams team…

The End of the Rood

Mar 22

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood | 8 Comments

So it’s almost all over then. One more Chamber ding-dong and that will have been the pariamentary term that was. I guess arguing loudly is the Holyrood equivalent of being allowed to bring games in (as long as they’re quiet) but whatever floats their boat. I’m still not ruling out a game of ‘heads down, thumbs up’ (Labour has been practising this game for the past few weeks).

For tens of MSPs, golden goodbyes and retirement beckons and for more still they are simply being ‘retired’, not sitting high enough on the party lists to realistically be re-elected thanks to less than dazzling performances over the past four years. I won’t name any names but discussing £500bn PFI issues on Newsnight (as opposed to £m) isn’t going to help your cause.

So has it all been worth it? On balance one would have to say yes though one could argue that paying for a largely talentless crowd of people to call each other liars for four years is a waste of time and money but that would surely be too harsh. There will be a refinement of personnel from this term to next, the Parliament will evolve as a direct result of parties picking stronger politicians, though a few exceptions will slip through I am sure. 

On policy, lest we forget, the direct comparison is with Westminster and many Scottish succeses would have been unlikely to have been achieved from London. These include a Council Tax Freeze, a solid commitment to renewable targets, keeping tuition free, safeguarding free care for the elderly, a focus on class sizes and moving away, slowly, from expensive PFI contracts. I’m sure I could celebrate more achievements from 2007-11 if my knowledge and memory were a bit sharper!

One bit of effort that doesn’t yet earn the accolade ‘achievement’ is that of the Calman process. It is too early to say what the conclusion to that mysterious piece of legislation will be but one can only suspect it is taking us halfway to something ‘other’, probably full fiscal autonomy. 

The stand out moment of the past four years is of course the decision by Kenny MaxAskill to release the Lockerbie bomber on compassionate grounds, a decision that split the nation and even the world for a short while. I had a rare sense of pride in our Government at what took place that day and still do. Between the US inhumanely incarcerating Bradley Manning and Scotland freeing a dying man, I know which side of the Atlantic I’d sooner take lectures from. 

Furthermore, to focus so squarely on Megrahi after an act of state-sponsored terrorism, ordered by a leader that is even today chaining Libyans to tanks and rocket launchers to prevent them escaping, is to miss the bigger picture and ignore a much greater dereliction of duty. I do worry that this heavily raked over issue will prove a scourge and a distraction over the coming weeks.

But onwards we look and what will the next four years bring? Noone knows for sure of course but a food revolution, a sustained drive on renewable energy, more sensibly priced transport and cross-party efforts to really drive up results at school would be good, regardless of whether one interprets “results” as academic/interpersonal/sporting or whatever. There is no reason why Scotland should not look towards the coming half-decade with optimism and enthusiasm.

We just have the small matter of an election campaign and Government to form before then.   

The latest Scottish polls…

Mar 19

Posted by Jeff in Elections | 92 Comments

ICM, for many the creme de la creme of political polling, has released its latest set of results as follows (constituency/list):

Labour – 39%/37%
SNP – 35%/34%
Tories – 12%/13%
Lib Dems – 10%/9%
Greens – -/4%

In terms of seats, I make the breakdown to be:

Labour – 56 (49/7)
SNP – 46 (19/27)
Tories – 15 (1/14)
Lib Dems – 10 (4/6)
Greens – 1 (0/1)
Margo – 1 (0/1)

Tight seats include – Western Isles (Labour win by 150 votes), Edinburgh East (Labour win by 545 votes), Kilmarnock (Labour win by 580 votes), Clackmanannshire & Dunblane (Labour win by 717 votes), Edinburgh West (Lib Dem win by 229 votes over SNP).

The regions deserve some scrutiny too.

– Glasgow sees 5 SNP MSPs returned, Nicola Sturgeon amongst them but no Patrick Harvie at the Parliament, missing out by 1,100 votes.

– Central sees the SNP take a remarkable 6 MSPs, the Conservatives quite comfortably taking the remaining spot

– The Highlands and Islands stays relatively unchanged with the SNP and Labour picking up an extra seat each at Lib Dem and Tory expense

– The strong showing by Labour in the Lothians, taking eight of the nine seats, means they do not pick up any regional spots. Neither do the Lib Dems with the SNP on 4 and one each for the Conservatives and Greens (making Alison Johnstone the de facto leader of the Greens in Holyrood, a sort of ‘Lucas of the North’)

There is nothing too remarkable to say about the remaining regions so let’s have a quick think about what may change between this poll and May 5th.

For a start, the Gray question remains the main undecided of this campaign. The Labour leader was placed third in a poll of leaders over the weekend, behind Annabel Goldie, and one cannot expect Gray’s party ratings to stay buoyant if his personal ratings remain so low. Iain Gray may benefit from Ed Miliband and Ed Balls by his sides from time to time and also from a ‘give me a chance’ direct appeal to the public which may soften up the electorate but stepping out of Salmond’s shadow remains unlikely and that can only be to the SNP’s benefit.

While the election is a two-horse race, it is also fair to assume that the Tories, Lib Dems and Greens will see a slight rise as polling day gets closer. This may not happen, maybe it really will go down to the wire with a Salond vs Gray narrative but most elections see a padding out of the ‘other’ vote in the last week or two of voting.

For me, the final key consideration is tactical voting, of course it is. I would imagine these polls mainly consist of opinions of who people would vote for in an ideal world but once those ‘only x and y can win here’ leaflets drop through the letterboxes, the voting patterns can shift dramatically.

The SNP is enjoying the rare position of being in a lot of second place positions going into this election, off the back of the strength of the last one in 2007. Will many people be minded to vote the Lib Dems or Conservatives into 3rd or 4th or will the competency of the Scottish Government and the personal appeal of Alex Salmond harden minds into keeping the Grays, Bakers, Kerrs and Baillies away from power?

One can only suspect so, and perhaps even hope for it more than a little bit too…

I tell you one thing though, bleedin’ obvious as it may be: pushing ‘second vote Green’ will be a difficult sell to SNP-minded individuals while the Nats remain just a few percentage points behind Labour. Green shoots in new green votes look decidedly hard to come by…

Libya – A line in the sand

Mar 18

Posted by Jeff in Defence | 17 Comments

So action shall be taken against Libya by the UN with a broad church of nations intending to assist with personnel and artillery. It is for individuals to decide whether this is an unavoidable step borne out of principle or unpardonable folly. Or something inbetween.

I hope that Iraq has taught us that we should not involve ourselves too heavily in shaping the destiny of another sovereign nation but I don’t see anything wrong in giving a helping hand to the side that we are rooting for from the sidelines. If a no-fly zone and even aerial strikes on strategic targets can help reach this objective then I for one have no problem with it.

There is oil involved, there is regime change and there will be a poll bump for the coalition. However, I hope that, for a change, this will be seen to be the right decision for the right reasons and if Gaddafi, despite his promises to “get crazy”, can be removed swiftly, then I hope Libya can soon follow into a transition to democracy as orderly as Egypt’s has seemed to be.

It’s a crazy mixed up world out there, more full of baddies than we would like; sometimes the goodies need to do more than just watch on passively.

The SNP’s European Student Disunion

Mar 17

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood | 32 Comments

So is there a significant funding gap for Higher Education or not?

Well, now we know that there is as the SNP has put forward proposals to not just charge English students higher fees but also EU students.

The policy is a far cry from the ‘equal partner in Europe’ calls from yesteryear, when the SNP’s main objective was clearly independence.
Part of the attraction of the European project for me is the effort to drive out inequality by removing the myopic, overly-Nationalist view of individual policies. I can study in Sweden for free just as easily as a Swede can study ‘gratis’ in Skottland. We’re all Robert Schuman’s bairns after all.

So, this legally dubious move of making Europe distinctly unequal smacks less of principle and more of the harsh realities of running a Government during difficult times. Stuck between the unpalatable options of introducing fees or raising more revenue, the SNP has lurched for a third unworkable option but it won’t wash and that fierce sun continues to beat down on those warm rocks.

Scotland won’t progress by ducking the difficult decisions. Labour is turning a blind eye to the funding gap for universities and the SNP is looking outside our borders for a solution. The Greens have quite calmly made the straightforward suggestion that policies such as these need to be paid for with extra revenue, a policy that looks more reasonable and more honest as time draws on.

The release of the official manifestos are still some way off but it looks like we’ll need to give some of them a right good going over if they are going to pass the sniff test.