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Better Nation

DM4TV – How much spare time does an MP have?

Jan 12

Posted by Jeff in Westminster | 13 Comments

It wasn’t so long ago that George Foulkes was arguing vociferously for politicians to receive significant increases in pay. We were in the eye of the expenses storm and the suggestion, as I understood it, was that an MP’s base salary was so low in relation to their heavy workload that it was understandable, if not necessarily excusable, for politicians to seek extra remuneration elsewhere.

At the time I found it to be a convincing argument; if we do expect the life of an MP to be a frenetic, round-the-clock, 24/7 affair, then that should be reflected in some way, reflected perhaps even through increasing the £60k or so salary that the current crop of MPs currently enjoy.

Given this pleading to give overworked politicians a break, I must admit that I was struck with surprise when I learned that David Miliband was looking to carve out a career for himself on TV, over and above his commitments as a constituency MP.
That ambition from the former Foreign Secretary has now swerved towards (and seemingly settled upon) volunteering as a teacher for 12 hours/week in a Chalk Farm school, a school some 300 miles away from his constituency.

Now, putting aside the selflessness of this decision (not to mention the flightiness of it that is more becoming of a student picking an outside college course) how can an MP for the far flung constituency of South Shields take almost two working days off in the week from his main job?

Don’t get me wrong, it’s for those South Shielders to decide how acceptable this is and I have little doubt that they’d return David Miliband with a stonking majority at any opportunity they had between now and the next election, and no doubt beyond.

It does beg the question though of just how busy our MPs actually are. And, specifically, how busy are our Scottish MPs who do not have to overly concern themselves with education, health and crime issues that their English and, to a lesser extent, Welsh counterparts do, including David Miliband of course.

I have no problem with MP salaries rising in order to attract and attain the brightest and the best and I have no problem with politicians being cut some slack if they have to work morning, day and night to fulfil modern expectations of what an MP should do and be.

However, I do have a problem with MPs acting outside the job description and taking up part-time roles outside their democratic remit. If you want to be a tv star or a teacher then step aside and let someone else in to do the job that you were elected to do less than a year ago.

Perhaps David Miliband can be something of a guinea pig to these ends with his looming circuitous career that will keep him off the backbenches for the next four years. Who knows, it may prove to be a rip-roaring success for reasons that I cannot currently see. However, I can’t help but be a little less in favour of those politician pay rises that Lord Foulkes was advocating recently…

UPDATE – David’s latest career plan is to join the board of Sunderland

How Annabel Goldie may be voted out of Holyrood

Jan 11

Posted by Jeff in Elections | 38 Comments

I decided to quickly do a little bit of investigation into the likelihood of Annabel Goldie winning her First Past the Post seat, with more than a hint of a hope that the Scottish Conservative leader could pull it off. However, I came away with the conclusion that there is a greater chance that Annabel will miss out on being re-elected to the Scottish Parliament entirely.

For a start, the boundary changes have not been kind. The 2007 Renfrewshire North result was:

Labour (Trish Godman) – 10,467
Conservative (Annabel Goldie) – 8,289
SNP (Bill Wilson) – 8,167

The 2011 notional result (after boundary changes) for Renfrewshire North and West, including candidates, is:

Labour (Stuart Clark) – 11,341
SNP (Derek Mackay) – 8,236
Conservative (Annabel Goldie) – 6,420

A competitive second place has been replaced with a distant third and I have little doubt that Derek Mackay will make it known to every last constituent that he is the main challenger, according to the numbers at least.

So a FPTP victory for the Tory leader seems a remote prospect but surely Annabel will be safely returned via the seven regional seats for West of Scotland?

Well, probably, but it is by no means certain and that is in no small part thanks to Jackson Carlaw’s expected victory in Eastwood.

The breakdown of votes in the West in 2007 was as follows:

Labour – 91,725
SNP – 75,953
Conservative – 40,637
Lib Dems – 22,515
Greens – 8,152

The elected MSPs, in order of selection, had party affiliation of:

1 – SNP
2 – SNP
3 – Lib Dem
4 – Conservative
5 – SNP
6 – SNP
7 – Conservative

Now, there is an element of calculated guesstimation at play here of course but let’s assume that Labour will retake Cunninghame North in May and the breakdown of regional votes will be as follows:

SNP – 83,953
Labour – 81,725
Conservative – 32,637
Lib Dems – 16,515
Greens – 16,404

(Assumptions:
(1) Some would-be Labour voters will realise that their second vote is wasted on Labour and vote elsewhere, Greens being prime beneficiaries.
(2) Lib Dems will see votes haemorrhage to SNP and Greens
(3) Conservatives will see a small but significant dip)

The above result would give regional seats of:

1 – SNP
2 – SNP
3 – SNP
4 – SNP
5 – SNP
6 – Lib Dems
7 – Greens

So, no Conservative regional MSP and, crucially, no Annabel Goldie. And I don’t even think I’m bullsh*tting (too much).

Indeed, the whole region seems to boil down to this:
Cunninghame North is a head-to head between SNP and Labour
West of Scotland is a head-to-head between Greens and Tories

Cameroons for Independence?

Jan 10

Posted by Malc in Constitution, Parties | 44 Comments

Look, I know I’ll get shouted down for posting this incredibly silly suggestion, but bear with me until the end of the piece before laughing/ calling me names.

The Conservatives should come out in favour of independence for Scotland.

Now I realise a couple of things here.  Firstly, the name – the Conservative and Unionist party suggests this might be an issue.  Except that the union referred to in that title is between Britain and Ireland, and that isn’t exactly a current issue.  And of course the Scottish Nationalist movement might not exactly take too kindly to an unpopular, right of centre party moving in on their ground – its not exactly like there is massive support for the Conservatives in Scotland, and this policy isn’t likely to help that much.

But think outside the box a little bit.  I’m not talking about a Scottish Conservative policy.  I’m talking about a David Cameron idea, a UK-wide policy shift for the party.  And that, in pragmatic, electoral terms makes lots of sense.

Put it like this – the Conservatives won the sum total of ONE seat in Scotland in last year’s general election. One.  Out of 59.  That means they need to win 58 more seats in England and Wales than the combined opposition parties to win a UK-wide election.  Labour, on the other hand, rely on MPs from Scotland and Wales for majorities – think the top-up tuition fees vote or foundation hospitals.

Again, with the maths, but there are 533 English MPs, of which 298 are Conservative, a comfortable governing majority of 32 at the moment.  Add in Wales (40 MPs, 8 Conservatives) and Northern Ireland (18 MPs, 0 Conservatives) and the picture is slightly different – 591 MPs (excluding Scotland’s 59) of which 306 are Conservative MPs, a governing majority of 10.  Still workable, but much tighter.  It’s only when you add in Scotland’s sole Conservative MP (and the remaining 58 MPs from Scotland from other parties) that the Conservative majority disappears.

So maybe if Dave wants to go it alone and ditch Nick and Vince, all he has to do is support Scottish independence.

Thumbs up if you support the motion...

Of course its crazy – and it likely will never happen.  But I’m pretty sure than, in an independent Scotland, the Scottish Conservative party would actually do better, given there would be less inclination to associate them with the remainder of the UK Conservatives – and indeed, I think there is a continuing “I can’t vote Tory, they’re the party of Thatcher” mentality.  But if they were no longer the party of Thatcher… then perhaps they’d have more success.

So… it would help PM David Cameron consolidate his and his party’s position as potentially the best placed to win a majority of seats in the rest of the UK, and it’d help the Scottish Conservatives get themselves some distance from their history, and perhaps people would start to put the “Party of Thatcher” stuff behind them.  Win-win?

It’s just a crazy idea.  But it might just work…

The United Kingdom – ’til death do us part

Jan 7

Posted by Jeff in Health | 5 Comments

As the death toll from the flu virus rises still higher, a quite remarkable situation has arisen where Scotland has spare flu vaccines available, is perfectly open to supplying south of the border but parts of the rest of the UK are using old stocks that do not cover every strain of the virus. Local shortfalls exist while GPs scour Continental Europe for any spare vaccines that already exist in Scotland.

In difficult times, the human mind can find a survival instinct that allows it to find the necessary solutions quicker in order to overcome problems. For some reason, that same instinct seems to be lacking from the current UK Government as the simplest solution here would be to take Scotland’s spares and quickly deliver them to where the need is the greatest, wherever that may be across the entire UK.

One can only hope that it was not the consideration of the SNP being seen to be helping out the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition that led to the Scottish Government’s spare vaccines being rebuffed. Alternative reasons are thin on the ground though and, once again, Cameron’s party’s ‘respect’ agenda for Scotland can only be called into question.

As I’ve said before, I’m not overly fussed about independence as there’s no reason why two neighbouring countries can’t operate just as effectively with each other irrespective of where the border is drawn. Of course the flip side of that is that we should act as one country when we are one country so the apparent difficulty to do just that is what is so concerning here; that we can’t even distribute a life-saving vaccine as efficiently as possible.

‘Stronger together, weaker apart’ is the constant refrain from each of the unionist parties regarding the constitutional arrangement of the UK. But if London won’t even tap Scotland for a few spare flu vaccines when parts of England are in desperate need of them, can we really take that argument seriously?

Predicting the Predictable?

Jan 7

Posted by Malc in Holyrood | 15 Comments

Jeff beat me to it, but for what its worth, here are my predictions for 2011.

I think Will’s predictions are pretty much in line with what I think will happen in the coming year (the politics ones, not the sports ones so much) but given I’ve tried my hand at predictions every blogging year, I figured this should be no exception.  So, let’s get to them.

AV referendum: No vote, by 65% to 35%.  It isn’t something anyone wants, and the lack of popularity of the only party who vaguely support it will bring the vote down.  I suspect a higher turnout in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – but I also foresee a sizeable number of spoilt ballots, whether through intention (Bella Caledonia’s campaign) or by mistake simply because it will be held on the same day as the devolved legislatures.

Welsh Powers referendum: Yes vote, by 58% to 42%.  I think it’ll be a comfortable-ish victory for pro-devolutionalists, though they will have to work hard over the course of the campaign.

Scottish Parliament election: Labour ending the night as the largest party, but we’ll have to wait a few days at the least to work out who will form our next government.  Have a look at Will’s comments regarding numbers, which make it difficult to predict who will be in a position to negotiate coalition and/or confidence and supply positions, but I suspect we will have limited options given numbers (requirement to reach 65 combined seats) and ideological reasons (SNP have rules against working with the Tories at national level; Labour and Tories ideologically opposed).  So, potential outcomes are: Labour minority, confidence & supply deal between Labour and SNP, confidence and supply deal including SNP, Tories and Greens.  The last one sounds like a stretch, so I think my money is currently on minority Labour… which if it happens, might not last that long.

In terms of post-election stuff, new leaders for the SNP (Nicola Sturgeon to comfortably emerge from the contest ahead of Kenny MacAskill, Mike Russell and a surprising candidate) and the Conservatives (the lack of Derek Brownlee returning to Holyrood means I’m with Jeff on Murdo Fraser taking over the reigns here – though I have a hunch Elizabeth Smith may have a shot at it as well).  I do think if Iain Gray is FM, Salmond will take a short period as leader of the opposition before riding off into the sunset… though if (and its a big if) there is any kind of agreement between the SNP and Labour, it may hinge on his pseudo-retirement (ie – no longer being leader).  But that’s a long shot.

At Westminster, the coalition will blunder on, the Dave and Nick show surviving another year with more protests at cuts to, well, everything.  But when the economy starts to turn, people start to be less noisy about it.  At least, that’s what they are hoping for, right?

Sporting predictions:

Football: I think Celtic will take advantage of Rangers hectic schedule (and the fact they have a bigger and better squad) and win the SPL in Neil Lennon’s first year in charge. Hearts a lock for third while Edinburgh rivals Hibs are the shock side relegated, with Gordon Brown’s Raith Rovers replacing them in the top flight. Rangers get the League Cup (Smith’s final trophy) and Hearts the Scottish Cup.

In England, I can’t see past Man Utd for the Premiership, ahead of Arsenal, Man City and Spurs. Chelsea will make the Europa League in fifth, and probably win the FA Cup to not quite make up for a disappointing season. Relegations: West Ham, West Brom and… Fulham.  Barcelona for the Champions League.

Rugby: France for the Six Nations, but no Grand Slam this year.  Optimistically, Scotland to finish second.  Rugby World Cup… New Zealand to finally achieve their potential. And if we get through our group as winners… well, notch us up as Bronze medalists.  Is that optimistic enough?

Tennis: Well it’s time isn’t it? (what do you mean “It’s time” was four years ago?).  Andy Murray will finally win a Grand Slam.  But he’ll have to wait until the last one of the year – the US Open.  Though he will reach the final in Australia and at Wimbledon.  Honest.  And he’ll end the year as #3 in the world, behind Nadal and Federer.