How do you round up when there’s nothing to round up? I mean, they might as well not have bothered this week.
It’s beginning to feel like Groundhog Day: every morning the meeja are summoned to some inane photo opportunity in some poor unsuspecting town; the respective machines reel off constant announcements and statements (go visit the Steamie to see how relentless they are); news programmes dutifully report the day’s headlines and if they’re really lucky, a gaffe. And then everyone goes leafleting, canvassing, to hustings and meetings and then they do it all again the next day. Yep, so far, so dull.
What happened this week? More polls showed a super soaraway lead for the SNP; a relaunch for Labour put Salmond, the SNP and independence firmly in its sights; Annabel presented a ridiculous caricature of herself, if this is possible, in a hairnet eating teacakes; Iain Gray failed to fight Salmond in the Asda aisles; and Hadrians wall was breached as UK leaders and big hitters headed north to shore up the faltering Labour and Lib Dem campaigns, and Mr and Mrs Salmond went to London to see the Queen and that wedding; shock, horror there was a wumman in charge of the country and the sky didn’t fall in.
Dear voter, hang tight, the end is in sight. Here’s hoping for a rip-roaring grand finale with two leaders’ debates this Sunday on the BBC and then on Tuesday at STV. Please inspire us with a gripping toe-to-toe discourse on the key policies and issues.
So that’s the parties; what about the voters? Who is actually voting for whom in this election and what does that say about, well, anything?
Using the IPSOS-Mori poll because it has the most detail in terms of voter disaggregation, there are few surprising variations on what we might expect.
If you intend to vote SNP on 5 May, you are most likely to be male, aged 35 -54, working full time, born in Scotland and living in a rural area, in the least deprived communities. However, the SNP can also expect a considerable vote from pensioners, though amongst younger age groups, its vote is pretty evenly split between those having children and those not.
Given that Labour and the SNP are fighting it out for the centre ground, they might also be tussling over the same voters? Actually, no.  Labour voters are more likely to be female, under 35, working part time, living with children in a council or housing association house in the most deprived areas in cities or towns. Interestingly, their voters are just as likely to come from other parts of the UK or indeed, beyond, as from Scotland.
What does this tell us? That Labour is holding onto its traditional voter ground, is resonating with the “squeezed middle” but needs to do more to secure the aspirational vote. It is clear that this vote still sits largely with the SNP. And despite big efforts, the SNP is still toiling to appeal to women and urban voters. This matters: if the SNP’s projected lead turns into seats, expect Scotland to turn largely yellow all across the North and South of Scotland, but the central belt will stay stubbornly red. One other interesting demographic is how few people (according to this poll but probably backed up by experience) born outwith Scotland intend to vote SNP: the party’s civic nationalist messages do not appear to be getting through.
Perhaps the most significant development is the switch of the all-important pensioner vote, which has been mirrored in the polls throughout this election and which I blogged on previously.  Given older people’s propensity to actually go and vote, these are the voters likely to have a huge bearing on the overall result. And the shift would appear to be just reward for the SNP Government’s overt woo-ing with a range of pensioner-friendly policies.
What of the other parties? Conservative voters are most likely to be female, retired, without children, born elsewhere in the UK and living in the most affluent areas in rural communities. Little surprise there then, but note that their main challengers for this vote are the SNP (who are winning it hands down).
The Lib Dems’ vote is most likely to be younger (25 -34), have no children, own their home, and again live in the most affluent areas of rural communities.
Do you see the pattern? It seems to support the headline findings which show that the SNP is taking votes from both these parties. And it also shows the danger of believing the national polls in terms of how big the SNP’s lead over Labour actually is. Unless and until the SNP is winning votes from Labour in urban constituencies, few seats in the central belt will change hands.
Effectively, the SNP is in the lead because it is taking votes away from the Tories and Lib Dems in largely rural seats, which is also supported by IPSOS-Mori’s findings on the regional vote. These suggest more Tory and Lib Dem constituency voters intend to vote SNP on the list vote than for Labour.
It all points to two things. First, that we are likely to have a big urban-rural divide in terms of election outcome. How that will play out in Holyrood and government remains to be seen. Secondly, Labour has indeed got its campaign strategy wrong. Its lagging behind the SNP has less to do with losing the national battle (though this has undoubtedly had an impact), and more to do with mistaking this election – as veteran political journalist Angus McLeod deftly pointed out – as a core vote one, when it has actually been a switcher election.
Finally, what of the Scottish Greens? Well, the party enjoys pretty even support across all the demographics, though its vote is more likely to be urban, living in the least deprived areas and most likely to have been born outwith the UK. Everything else is pretty marginal: while having a universal appeal across age groups, gender and employment status might suit the egalitarian spirit of the Greens and their need to pick up regional votes from all types of voters, one wonders what might happen if it targeted more heavily towards particular groups and communities?