There are lies, damn lies… and then there are opinion polls.
I want to make clear, I have no real agenda here. Â Weighted, unweighted, likely to vote… I’m really not sure how much they tell us. Â As one of our commenters noted, on the doorsteps the response most heard to the question “with which party do you most closely identify” is none.
But by all means, knock yourselves out with speculation – as indeed, you have been doing – whenever a new one comes our way. Â I want to add to it based on nothing more than an idea that came to mind.
I’ve been saying for a few months now that I think the likely outcome is a narrow Labour “victory” – that’s to say, more seats than any other party in Parliament, but not enough for a majority (of course) and with the maths making coalition with anyone unlikely if not impossible, running a minority government.
But here’s a spanner for you. Â What if that came to pass, and Labour did become the largest party… but Iain Gray failed to be re-elected in East Lothian?
Let me back track a little.
- Iain Gray was Minister for Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning (and quite how those three briefs fitted together nicely is anyone’s guess) at the dissolution of the first Scottish Parliamentary session in 2003 – a fairly high-profile role.
- He then lost out in his bid to be re-elected in Edinburgh Pentlands to then-Conservative leader David McLetchie, with the latter turning a 2,885 Labour majority into a 2,111 majority for the Tories.
- Given Labour’s rules regarding standing in either the constituency or on the list, but not both, he was thus denied the “safety-net” of list ranking.
- He then spent 4 years out of Holyrood before returning as constituency MSP for East Lothian after incumbent Labour MSP John Home Robertson decided to step down.
- He’ll be defending a majority of 2,448 over the SNP (which, if you’ve been paying attention, you will have noticed is SMALLER than the majority he held when he lost Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003).
Having said all that – David McLetchie did have a much higher profile than Gray’s nearest challenger in East Lothian, the SNP’s David Berry. Â There is a certain other candidate in the constituency who has a high profile – possibly a higher profile than Gray himself – and that is the Conservatives’ Finance Spokesman, Derek Brownlee. Â If the Conservatives had been the nearest challenger to Labour previously or were not 6,000 odd votes behind Labour (or, indeed, if the constituency wasn’t essentially allergic to blue!), I’d probably be giving the idea that Iain Gray might not be returned more consideration.
Nevertheless, East Lothian, for all its Labour-leaning tendencies, is not what you would term a “safe” seat, so there is a chance, albeit slim, that Iain Gray might lose the seat itself. Â No, I know – I’m not convinced either – but let’s roll with it for a minute.
Now, assume I’m right about the election – and Labour do end up the largest party, but without their leader elected. Â What then?
Well, the Scotland Act says we have 28 days to find a First Minister or we have to have a new election. Â Labour’s leadership contests take about 3 months, so that’s out – but they managed to have a contest within the 4 weeks in the wake of Donald Dewar’s death. Â So, if they wanted to govern, they’d have to act quickly. Â But in the meantime, they’d (presumably) be led by Deputy Leader Johann Lamont unless she decided to stand in the leadership contest itself (or, herself wasn’t returned to Holyrood).
I guess perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself a little in considering potential leadership (and, potentially, if my maths proves accurate, First Ministerial) candidates, but presumably Andy Kerr would be favourite, with Jackie Baillie, Bill Butler and John Park (and maybe Johann Lamont herself?) potential candidates? Â I have no idea. Â I don’t really want to think about FM Jackie Baillie.
Anyway – this is a scenario that is unlikely to trouble us much. Â Perhaps possible, but no more than that. Â But it would certainly be interesting to see the dynamics of an internal election where, once again for Labour, the winner would become Scotland’s First Minister.
#1 by douglas clark on March 1, 2011 - 10:38 am
Malc,
Labour, nationally, increases it’s share of the vote to the extent that it becomes the largest party, but Iain Grey goes against trend and loses his seat?
I really can’t see that happening.
#2 by Malc on March 1, 2011 - 12:31 pm
I did say I thought it unlikely.
But, to de-construct your point – Labour are 1 seat behind the SNP at the moment, so any marginal increase in its vote across Scotland (or a minor decrease in the SNP’s vote, with Labour’s staying the same) would see them home as largest party. Point being Labour’s increase wouldn’t need to be that much (if at all) for them to win the election.
Further – I’m not a big believer in “national trends”. The SNP won Stirling and Gordon on massive swings in 2007, yet failed to take Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Linlithgow with much less required. Its much more about local circumstances.
That said, I agree – if Labour win, Gray isn’t likely to lose. But something to think about, no?
#3 by Lallands Peat Worrier on March 1, 2011 - 11:32 am
Funny you should write about this, Malc. Recalling Gray’s fate in past elections, the other day I idly pondered whether an accidental self-decapitation was possible this year. Now I know.
#4 by Malc on March 1, 2011 - 12:32 pm
Possible… but not likely.
The stat I’d like to use: Iain Gray’s has a 100% failure rate when trying to get re-elected to the Scottish Parliament.
#5 by Jeff on March 2, 2011 - 1:28 pm
Surely 50%? He was re-elected in 2007….
#6 by Malc on March 2, 2011 - 8:39 pm
I don’t grant your premise. He wasn’t re-elected from ANYTHING in 2007. He won in 1999 and was defeated in 2003. Therefore, while technically, since he was returning to Holyrood, you might say it was “re-elected”, I’d say it was “elected again”. There’s a difference for me – had he been standing in the same constituency as he won in 1999/lost in 2003, I’d be more sympathetic to your argument!
#7 by ianbeag on March 1, 2011 - 11:33 am
The scenario you postulate, however unlikely, for a Labour successor to Iain Gray should frighten all Scots and exposes the paucity of talent in Labour’s ranks.
Even with heavy underpinning by a subservient BBC Scotland, can anyone imagine the image that Scotland would portray to the world with any of those named as our First Minister?
Be afraid – very afraid!
#8 by Malc on March 1, 2011 - 12:34 pm
I don’t want this to turn personal, but yes. I’d be tempted to leave Scotland should we end up with some of those candidates as FM.
#9 by Doug Daniel on March 1, 2011 - 4:20 pm
I can’t help feeling the same, which makes me wonder if there’s perhaps something wrong in letting a party dictate who the First Minister is. I remember last year when the Leaders/Prime Ministerial/Whatever Debates were happening, and people like myself were unhappy at the way these debates were suited for a presidential election, but not for parliamentary elections, since only those in the constituencies of the three men on the screen could actually vote for them. We’re meant to vote for who the best candidate in our area is, not who we think should be the Prime Minister.
However, presented with the possibility of one of Labour’s Neanderthal idiots becoming Scotland’s representative on the world stage, I can now see exactly where people are coming from when they talk about our elections as if we’re able to directly elect the Prime/First Minister.
There are possibly voters out there who would like to vote Labour/Lib Dem/Tory in May, but also realise that Alex Salmond is by far the best candidate for FM, and therefore feel the need to vote for the SNP instead. That’s great for SNP supporters like me, but is it really democratic?
I think the office of First Minister may be too important to be left to chance. We’ll have to wait until we become an independent republic though…
#10 by Colin on March 2, 2011 - 10:16 am
I don’t see why Andy Kerr would be any worse than Gray. Apart from Jackie Baillie, all of the potential candidates Malc suggests are as decent as or better than the incumbent.
Anyway, while we’re fantasising, what happens if there’s a shock in Aberdeenshire East?
#11 by Doug Daniel on March 2, 2011 - 1:32 pm
I think if Salmond doesn’t win Aberdeenshire East, it’ll be far more than a shock. I think we’re more likely to see Labour lose its dominance in Glasgow than Salmond failing to get re-elected in Aberdeenshire, where he’s been an excellent MP and MSP for 24 years.
#12 by Malc on March 2, 2011 - 8:37 pm
I suspect if Bill Butler were FM we’d be returning to Soviet-era socialism! But yes – Kerr would be similar to Gray I reckon, and my nightmare scenario would be Jackie Baillie, who I once asked a question at a youth conference about buying nuclear weapons versus spending money on helping fund NHS and got the condescending “you’re not old enough to vote or understand big decisions like that” answer. That was circa 2000, and I’ve not forgotten. Added to that, well, I just don’t think she’s been particularly competent in her opposition brief.
If there was a shock in Aberdeenshire East it would likely (but not 100%, since the SNP aren’t guaranteed a spot) be minimised by Salmond returning on the list. Labour are the only party who don’t let you stand on both constituency and regional ballots (though I understand – but I may be wrong – that Sarah Boyack is candidate for Edinburgh Central, but also went forward for list rankings in Lothian?) so they’d be the only ones who could “decapitate” their leader in this manner…
#13 by Despairing on March 1, 2011 - 3:53 pm
Perhaps there’s a rule along the lines of the Presiding Officer’s “vote for the status quo”, that if the parliament can’t agree on a FM after 28 days then Salmond continues in the role until such times as the parly can agree.
On the other hand, Belgium has managed to rub along quite nicely without a government, even reducing their deficit. Maybe we’ll end up with Michael Moore as a Scottish Dictator, claiming that his people love him.
#14 by Tormod on March 1, 2011 - 3:59 pm
Interesting stat on Iain Gray, long may the trend continue.
#15 by theshooglypeg on March 1, 2011 - 7:43 pm
A fascinating thought: and one that I bet has crossed the minds of the likely Labour leadership contenders. Hmm: if I lived in East Lothian, I might well be considering a mischievous vote, just to see what happens…
#16 by Peter Thomson on March 1, 2011 - 9:38 pm
Gray has a wee problem – the re-drawing of the electoral boundaries for his constituency has in fact removed a chunk of Labour voters – something that has not been apparently factored into this piece (unless I missed it).
That is on top of the other problems that Gordon’s puppet and his string puller Murphy have with Gray’s non existent presence. Wendy has done a runner, Lord Joke McConnell of nowhere is running off and all his worthwhile lieutenants got safe seats last May …..
Then there is the elephant in the room. Just when will the Omerta surrounding Glasgow City Council – West of Scotland Labour’s Achilles heel – break?
{redacted for potential libel}
#17 by Top Tory Aide on March 2, 2011 - 7:12 am
or, indeed, if the constituency wasn’t essentially allergic to blue!
Tories finished second at the last general election – a stat that this blog would know about due to one of the authors finishing fifth.
Worth noting that the Lib Dem and SNP run the local council and that could be a hindrance to their chances in this seat.
I imagine the Tories will finish second here.
#18 by Malc on March 2, 2011 - 8:19 am
The exclamation mark was an indication that this was a flippant, throwaway remark. Though if conditions were ripe for a victory, it was with a Labour MP being deselected and yet her replacement still returned a 12,000+ majority! So – be honest – its not like this was a terrific result!
As a Top Tory Aide, I assume you recognise also, that people occasionally vote differently in Westminster and Holyrood elections? So good result in UK elections isn’t necessarily an indicator of good performance of what the party will do in Holyrood elections. And also, you probably recognise that, as a party of government at UK level, the Tories will have that mill-stone around their neck going into May.
That said, your latter point – that the local council is SNP-Lib Dem run – plus the fact that Derek Brownlee has a high profile, makes me think you may be onto something. Though 4th to 2nd isn’t that easy in one election… guess we’ll see in May.
#19 by James on March 2, 2011 - 9:11 am
I think this is quite plausible. And I’m delighted that my heroic achievement, beating UKIP, still lives in the mind of the masses.
#20 by Jeff on March 2, 2011 - 1:09 pm
“the Lib Dem and SNP run the local council and that could be a hindrance to their chances in this seat”
You’re no doubt correct but I just wonder when we’ll get to the stage where parties won’t want power because it means they just get stuffed at elections. I like to think there is a council somewhere, doing a decent job, and seeing the benefit in the ballot box. Sadly I remain sceptical!
#21 by douglas clark on March 2, 2011 - 11:38 pm
See what Peter Thomson had to say?
Well, if I’d known that, I might have had a different opinion.
How likely is it that Iain Grays constituency has altered enough to matter?