It is the last Sunday before the election, a key date in any campaign, and it was clear from my sojourn from Stirling to Edinburgh who the momentum is with. It is written in the giant Salmond-fronted ‘together we can make Scotland better’ posters near the train station, the headlines of numerous newspapers backing the SNP at WH Smith, the free Scottish Sunday Express at the top of Waverley Station (paid for by the SNP) and the placards of every party except Labour all the way down Leith Walk.
I am just another Scot going about his day and Labour’s arguments to be the next Government haven’t pricked my consciousness with 5 days to polling. No wonder the polls are so heavily in the SNP’s favour.
Speaking of which, the main poll out today is as follows:
YouGov (SoS)
SNP – 42%/35%
Labour – 34%/33%
Con – 12%/12%
LD – 7%/6%
Green – -/7%
I have run these numbers through the model but, in order to build-in an arbitrary incumbency factor, I have decided to fix the following constituencies as Labour holds: East Kilbride, Dumbarton, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Airdrie & Shotts; and keep Orkney, North East Fife and Edinburgh Western as Lib Dem holds and keep Edinburgh Pentlands and Ayr as Tory holds.
This gives a seat breakdown as follows:
SNP – 34/19 = 53
Labour – 32/16 = 48
Conservative – 3/12 = 15
Greens -0/6 = 6
Lib Dems – 4/2 = 6
Margo – 1
(Note that I am keeping the flat assumption that the Socialists and George Galloway will not win any seats, which may not be accurate at all. Note also that it is the SNP who take the 7th regional seat in each of Central, Glasgow and the West so it’d be the Nats who lost out if you were to start adding on seats for the Socialists)
So, this is yet another poll where the balance of power is held strictly by the Conservatives, based on the twin assumption that:
(1) the SNP and Labour will not be able to find a way to work together
(2) the Greens, Lib Dems and Margo will involve too many stakeholders to function sufficiently well as a distinct group (a coalition of the frilly?)
That would leave devolved Scotland as business as usual to all intents and purposes – a minority SNP Government, the Conservatives providing support at budget time and the rest of the parties free to rant and rave as much as they please. A tripling of the Green vote would see Patrick Harvie get more airtime at FMQs and, if there’s any justice, a spot in the leader debates for 2016 (I’m ready to give up on the petition, regrettably!)
So, 5 days to go and not much change from a week ago. Iain Gray has failed to find the chink in the SNP armour, or rather Salmond’s armour, and a new strategy, the strategy that Labour should have started the campaign with, will not be forthcoming in the timescales available. That said, I find it fascinating that Labour are actually up from 2007 on both the constituency and regional vote. I am agog that such a negative campaign, a campaign that really has treated the public with contempt, has in a way been rewarded. Former Tory and Lib Dem voters are clearly rallying around the SNP to push them back into power and the tactical voting considerations that that brings should throw up some shocks in certain constituencies.
Seats with large blocks of Tory/Lib Dems votes that amounted to third place in 2007 include: Aberdeen Central, Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley, Clackmanannshire & Dunblane, Clydebank & Milngavie, Cowdenbeath, Cunninghame North, East Lothian (11,800 Tory/LD 3rd/4th votes out of 31,000 in total), Edinburgh Eastern, Edinburgh Northern & Leith, Paisley and Stirling. Tactical voting can work both ways of course but I wouldn’t be too surprised if there were some pro-SNP shocks in the above constituencies, going by what the polls are saying with Lib Dems and Tories breaking for Salmond.
The only outstanding from where I am sitting is the likelihood of an SNP/Green coalition that doesn’t need Lib Dem input. From an SNP perspective, the key question is whether it can win those seats that I fixed as holds and those mentioned above aswell as the real attention-grabbers of Glasgow Cathcart, East Lothian, Clydebank & Milngavie, Cunninghame South, Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh Northern & Leith and Renfrewshire North. The SNP really does need to be knocking on the door of 60 seats if an SNP/Green coalition could work and that is a tall order for a party that looked like it was making up the numbers just several weeks ago.
For the Greens, I would say the maximum it would dare dream of winning is 9 seats: 2 in Lothians and 1 elsewhere. To get to that stage, from the six above, the party would have to beat Labour to a seat in North East (currently 600 votes short), beat the SNP to a seat in the West (currently 200 votes short) and beat both the SNP and Labour to a seat in Central (currently 1,200 votes short). Not easy with the election being sold as a two-horse race.
However, the Greens are only 1,600 votes away from a second MSP in Glasgow so there are reasons for optimism.
All in all, as someone wishing the Greens and the SNP the best from the sidelines, I’m as happy as I could be with a five days and a couple of leader debates to go. Bring it on, as they say.
#1 by Bill Pickford on May 1, 2011 - 3:07 pm
You better watch out, Jeff, straplines like that will get you a job as a subbie on the Super Soaraway.
Some information from Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley – the Labour candidate is sinking like the proverbial Led Balloon. He was parachuted in over the head of local man Councillor Barney Menzies, a decision which has proved so popular none of the Labour councillors will do a photo-shoot with Mr Leonard.
SNP canvassing has been extremely well received – the best I’ve ever seen in this Labour heartland and a turn-over may well be on the books.
The letters page of the local paper, the Cumnock Chronicle, has also been interesting – positive, optimistic SNP letters from a wide assortment of writers versus bitter, sniping, slagging negativity from two Labour supporters.
Even if Adam Ingram doesn’t get in FPTP this time, it looks like Labour’s days are numbered here in CC&DV.
#2 by Gavin Hamilton on May 1, 2011 - 3:43 pm
Good analysis
So far I think the following of this surprising election so far.
Labour has utterly failed to inspire and there seems quite a strong consensus that sees them as kinda irrelevant!
This is Scotland and they haven’t a coalition to kick – take that away and they are not hated – but just bot v popular outside of their support – what a difference a year makes!
The SNP has been very successful at building a coalition of people looking foer an aspirational modern Scotland.
The Greens – probably due to the unpopularity of the LibDems looked poised to do well. Untested how much people truly support them but clearly the pro environment consensus grows year by year.
The coalition has been toxic for the LibDems and they have been crowded out of this election. Agree with you that incumbacy will save a couple of seats and a percent or so better than this poll may yet be difference between a drubbing or just a difficult stage.
The Tories after a good start have been crowded out a bit too and may do a little worse than they might have hoped!
I think we are going to get a large Labour group and a large anti Labour group in the guise of the SNP.
The parties shoul;d not kid themselves.
As said Labour =- despite national polls arent actually well liked.
The SNP have limited support for Independence – the support is for a modern alternative to Labour – and Ales rather than for the SNP per se.
The Grens are benefitting from LibDem fall out and general sympathy to environmental issues.
The LibDems v unpopular post coalition – is a generational change or can they remind a bloc of voters that they prefer them to other temporary choices – can they rebuild as a modern aspirational party. I thought they had some good ideas eg development banks but no one was listening.
Tories remain as unpopular in scotland as ever since 1987!!
There may yet be some movement a la GE 2010 – I expect post Royal Wedding some of the SNP support may go back – the issue is how much will go back.
We are in for an interesting night!!
Gavin
#3 by Doug Daniel on May 1, 2011 - 3:47 pm
You’re quite right, it’s baffling that Labour’s campaign looks to still reward them with an increase in seats, even if they don’t end up as the largest party. But I suppose the unfortunate truth is negative campaigning still works for an alarmingly large section of the electorate. I have a friend who is particularly anti-SNP and anti-independence, and when I get him to explain his reasoning, it’s like he’s reading it straight from an article in the Daily Record. Negativity works, because people have been conditioned to believe that Scotland is being propped up by the union, rather than the other way round, and as long as it keeps working, Labour will continue using it.
Anyway, with any luck we’ll see a big overall increase in pro-independence MSPs, suggesting that Scotland is starting to ditch the regressive Westminster parties and choosing a political future dominated by forward-thinking parties. People will soon realise that independence makes sense for Scotland. Perhaps the Greens replacing the Lib Dems as the fourth main party could be a precursor to this.
#4 by Allan on May 1, 2011 - 6:23 pm
Well, not really.
Yes their literature is the most patronising piece of guff i think i’ve ever seen (and I’m in the middle of doing a post about that), but I can see that it does contain a few.. what are they called now? Buzzwords.
“The Tories are back… Labour will focus on what matters to you… Labour will put jobs and the econnomy first”
We can disect this all we like, however there is still the perception, particularaly among the working classes & low income people in the west of scotland that Labour are their party.
Be thankful you (only) have a friend like that, a lot of my family are like that, still “rooted” in “Labour” values.
#5 by Mr. Mxyzptlk on May 1, 2011 - 4:12 pm
Oh I dont know jeff the snp may win the battle of minority but one thing is fixed and for certain they have conclusively lost the war of Independence..
#6 by Allan on May 1, 2011 - 6:24 pm
Really?
They haven’t started yet.
#7 by Dubbieside on May 1, 2011 - 6:41 pm
Jeff
That has to be the worst “headline” of the year.
Still LOL though.
#8 by Jeff on May 1, 2011 - 6:51 pm
Tragic isn’t it? Still love it though. Couldve been worse too, I was trying to squeeze a Siem Reap or Angkor Wat pun in there but it was beyond me, and I wasn’t confident enough in my SE Asian geography!