A quick post this morning from the mists of the Yorkshire Dales to note the poll on Scottish independence in the IoS that shows slender support in favour across the UK at 39% (up 6% from the equivalent poll in May) against a preference for the union at 38% (down 4%). The Scottish subsample, a positively brittle 176 respondents, has a more pronounced gap – 49% in favour of independence and 37% against.

Now, it’s only Scotland that will get to vote in any referendum and it’d be silly to give much (if any) credence to a poll with such a high margin of error but it is interesting that in a UK context the result goes in the Nats’ favour. I’m not aware of any poll having achieved that before.

That said, stripping out the Scotland subsample must actually result in rUK being AGAINST independence but I do wonder if an unbreakable spiral is beginning to take hold on this issue across Britain.

If people south of the border don’t know much of the detail of Scottish Politics but see the SNP winning a majority here and Alex Salmond arguing for Scottish independence there, it is little wonder that more and more non-Scots start to think ‘well blinkin’ well be independent then if you want it that way’. And if that notion is messaged up to Scotland in some way, through a poll in a national newspaper say, then it can only serve to harden the growing sense that a majority may well be voting Yes in a few years time, even if ordinarily they’d be loathe to breakaway. It’s easier to leave the party when you feel unwanted after all.

Whether this battle of sentiments based on misunderstandings proves to be a war of attrition or a blessing in disguise, we can only wait and see but perhaps polls with dodgy subsamples have a bigger part to play in all of this than some people give them credit for.