Ah Europe, that sprawling land mass that can always be relied upon to split the Tories. The leader believes he has to stay in Europe to win elections, the right of the party howl in protest at the idea of ‘Brussels’ running anything for Britain.
We may however be veering closer to a situation where David Cameron doesn’t have to lean Doverwards to be on the side of the majority of the electorate. An Opinium/Guardian poll found that 56% of the UK is in favour of leaving the European Union – 69% of Tory voters, 44% of Labour voters and even 39% of Lib Dem voters, the cheese eating, sandal wearing surrender monkeys, for want of a better description.
It’s enough to make out-of-the-closet Europhiles like myself throw my hands up in disgust. Infact I’m going to do it…. There. Can’t say I feel any better for it, but the people on this bus think I’m a bit weird. Maybe they’ll think I’m European, I do after all have a strikingly colourful’ shirt tie combo on.
Europe doesn’t help itself at all well, I get that of course. That the accounts haven’t been signed off for donkey’s years shows that if it was any other business it’d be shut down by now. The Euro mess needs no further criticism, the lack of interest in our MEPs speaks volumes and the proposed budget increases for 2014-2020 have not been sold at all well. Why should fat Eurocrats cream it in while everyone else is making cuts? Je ne sais pas.
So, back to that 56%, because as disheartened as I am by it as one signed up to the European project, I did sense an opportunity for a pro-independence perspective.
I have long believed that Europe offers Alex Salmond one of his best routes to winning the referendum in 2014. With Tories riven over Europe and England clearly on their way to pulling out of the EU, a distinctly pro-EU would see that the only way to keep a seat at the table would be to make it a solely Scottish seat after breaking away from the UK. The cross border differences over a relationship with Europe would be symbolic for the many different political outlooks between Scotland and England.
However, does the polling evidence bear this out? Well, sadly not as much as I would have expected to be honest as te following poll question from the Opinium poll shows:
If a referendum were held on the UK’s membership of the European Union with the options being to remain a member or withdraw, how do you think you would vote?
Vote to Leave/Vote to Stay
UK: 56%/29%
Scotland: 49%/31%
A 18% gap between leavers and stayers in Scotland is certainly better than the 27% gap above, but I wouldn’t look at those answers and automatically think the two countries should separate. The gap for London incidentally is also 18% and for Yorkshire and Humberside it is a curious 14%. Scotland is that dreaded thing for Nats, just another region in a UK poll.
Looking closer at the figures does give me more heart. Of the UK’s 56%, that is split 34% “definitely” vote to leave the EU and 22% “probably” vote to leave. Scotland’s breakdown is a less certain 26%/23%, the 26% of definites being the lowest of any region. It is a similar story for those saying they’d vote to stay in the EU, Scotland’s share of definites is 14%, along with London the highest of any region, so there are strong arguments to say that Scotland is the most pro-EU part of the United Kingdom and I am clinging onto my theory, but only just.
Perhaps the rest of the poll is where those that are pro-Indy should really take heart. Ed Miliband has no higher approval ratings in Scotland than the rest of the UK, David Cameron remains deeply unpopular and Nick Clegg even more so than the Prime Minister.
Half of Scotland may want out of the EU, but more still are unimpressed with our UK leaders. That can’t be bad news for Salmond who is still surfing a remarkably long wave of popularity, and it can’t be bad for independence either.
#1 by Oldnat on November 19, 2012 - 11:01 am
Even apart from the tiny sample – with consequent high moe – 20% of the Scots sample didn’t know how they would vote in an EU referendum.
Since the question was about the UK leaving the EU, it would be unwise to extrapolate that to how Scots would vote in a referendum as to whether an indy Scotland should leave the EU.
#2 by Jeff on November 19, 2012 - 11:18 am
Good point.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that if a Scot wants the UK to leave the EU, then they’d likely be in favour of Scotland not being a part of it for similar reasons.
They may want Scotland to be part of the EU as a safety net given we’d be a smaller country post-independence, but I would argue that such logic and lack of confidence does not lend itself to someone who is likely to vote Yes.
#3 by BM on November 19, 2012 - 11:04 am
Opinium doesn’t weight the regional break-downs, only the final poll, so any number on any regional break-down must be taken with a truck-load of salt.
#4 by Jeff on November 19, 2012 - 11:28 am
Obviously the sample size is small. Posts such as these have an inherent caveat accordingly.
#5 by BM on November 19, 2012 - 12:54 pm
It’s not just that the sample size is small (that’s not really a problem – we can still work out a margin of error), it’s that the sample is not representative.
#6 by Iain Menzies on November 19, 2012 - 11:31 am
I think the EU sucks. I dont thing it does us (the uk or scotland) any real good. Infact i think that it does some real harm. I’m one of those evil right wing tories thats of the better off out persuasion.
That being said if i was writing the next tory manifesto i dont think i would be saying all that much about europe…for the ismple reason that i dont think that many people rate eu membership as that big of an issue. why that is doesnt really matter. but they dont.
The problem for the SNP is that they say things about eu membership which they cant back up (doesnt matter why they cant back it up it only matters that they cant) so you undermine trust in the snp brand.
And for thsoe in scotland that are of a lets get out view point, you force them to ask the question of whats the point of leaving the UK if we are still in the EU.
#7 by HenBroon on November 19, 2012 - 1:15 pm
Letter in the Herald. Answers Iain Menzies last question, coupled with this fact. No mechanism exists to expel a country from the EU simply because it has reconvened it’s ancient parliament and withdrawn from membership of a one sided undemocratic union, that constantly insults the Scottish people with it’s lies and propaganda.
This is backed up by Article 34 of the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States, which reads: “Any treaty in force at the date of succession of states in respect of the entire territory of the predecessor state continues in force in respect of each successor state so formed.”
You can go back to 2007 when Eamonn Gallagher- former director general of the European Commission stated: “Scotland and the remainder of the UK would be equally entitled, and obliged, to continue the existing full membership of the EU. This was conceded by Emile Noel, one of Europe’s founding fathers and long-serving secretary-general of the European Commission, who said Scottish independence would create two states, which would have “equal status with each other and the other states”.
Or you COULD listened to Lord Mackenzie-Stuart, former president of the European Court of Justice who stated: “Independence would leave Scotland and something called the rest’ in the same legal boat. If Scotland had to re-apply, so would the rest. I am puzzled at the suggestion that there would be a difference in the status of Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom in terms of community law if the Act of Union was dissolved.”
Letter in the Herald.
There has been much talk recently of the future relationship between an independent Scotland and the European Union.
However, one aspect of the debate appears to have been completely neglected.
Currently, Scotland – population: five million – is represented in Brussels by only six MEPs, the same number as Malta (population: 420,000). However, were Scotland to become independent and a member state of the EU in its own right, its number of MEPs would double to 12. Even the highly partisan House of Commons foreign affairs select committee admits that the “allocation of seats in the European Parliament disproportionately favours small states; thus, Scotland’s MEPs would double in number”.
Not only would Scotland have its own seat at the top table and a voice on the international stage, but the number of representatives championing Scottish interests and concerns at the heart of Europe would double, in turn doubling Scotland’s prominence and influence.
The evidence confirms that independence will not result in separation, isolation or loss of influence. Independence will place Scotland at the heart of the international community in the UN and EU, whereas the Union leaves us powerless on its fringes as a mere “region” of Britain.
David Kelly,
17 Highfields,
Dunblane.
#8 by Jeff on November 19, 2012 - 1:42 pm
All very interesting but at the end of the day, until Scotland and/or the UK go to Europe and ask for absolute clarity on the issue and a legally binding decision, this is all just going to be back-and-forth banter. Apparently a decision was taken by the EU in 2004 that countries that secede from existing member countries would not be members. That doesn’t sound unreasonable to me but it also seems unfathomable that the EU wouldn’t want Scotland as a member soon after independence.
Salmond’s shadow boxing on the issue regarding FOI requests and non-existent legal advice doesn’t fill me with confidence though.
#9 by Braco on November 19, 2012 - 3:59 pm
Do you have a link for that 2004 EU decision Jeff as I would be very interested to read it. I thought that we were proposing to amicably dissolve a treaty of parliamentary union, not secede from a country.
#10 by Jeff on November 19, 2012 - 5:05 pm
I can’t remember where I read it, this was the best I can find:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/09/12/scottish-independence-europe-barroso_n_1877499.html
#11 by Braco on November 19, 2012 - 5:35 pm
Thanks Jeff. I think that reads like some nicely selective quotations on what is the process for countries to become a new member of the EU, but used to support the ‘Scotland will have to re apply’ line. This gets us no further, as the argument is whether Scotland (it’s people are citizens of the EU) is already a member of the EU as joint signatory of the founding treaty of union which created the UK in the first place. Anyway I think you would need a better source than that to carry the weight of your ‘Apparently a decision was taken by the EU in 2004 that countries that secede from existing member countries would not be members’ assertion.
#12 by Iain Menzies on November 19, 2012 - 3:25 pm
So Scotland gets more MEP’s. Now putting aside my boundless joy at the prospect, as i understand it the number of MEP’s is limited. So its not just a case of sticking another half dozen in the European Parliament. So if we get six more, where do they come from? HOw would the states that would see reduced representation react to that? And who would they be, i would imagine the states most likely to have to give up MEP’s would be Germany, France, Italy, Spain and rUK. At least 3 of those have issues with seperatist movements that may make them reluctant to say here have our six.
As for a seat at the top table, well what table? And does having that seat make a difference? Ireland has a seat at the top table, indeed with them being in the Euro you can make a case that they are deeper in the Eu than the UK, yet that didnt seem to do them much good in getting support when their economy went down the swannie.
And as for doubling scottish representation, well that made me giggle. Even if Scotland gets 12 MEP’s that would be 1.6% of the european parliament. As things stand now, with scotland being part of the UK the UK has 9.8% of MEP’s. Which would be more.
Now you can say ah but they dont represent scotland. And this is true. They represent different parts of the UK. But say you get a debate on, oh i dont know, fisheries in the parliament. And you get, say the SNP and Tories with strong support in the north east pushing for a better deal for scottish fishermen. Why would a Labout MEP that depended on west central scotland voters (who dont have much to do with fishing other than the eating o the fish) waste political capital on an issue that wont do anything to keep them there and representing the people that voted for them.
#13 by Braco on November 20, 2012 - 12:18 pm
What you describe in your last para Iain is exactly how ‘Scottish’ Unionist party politicians act at the moment, no matter at what level of government they find themselves. This is for the simple reason that they do not consider that the interests of Scotland and the Scots have any bearing or importance on the advancement of their career path. All patronage has been dolled out from outwith Scotland. This to me is the No 1 reason for Independence. Politicians will always respond only to the electorate that can yank the chain of their government. Up until recently this electorate has been located solely outwith Scotland and hence the lack of interest from ‘Scottish representatives’ in solving particularly Scottish needs. Eg. after John Smiths death it became apparent that his long term rock solid constituency was a hot bed of sectarian division. Unsolved. Or Gordon Brown and his nuclear beach, a problem running since the 50’s. Unsolved. Speaker (now Lord) Martin and just about every other high flying Scottish Labour politicians constituency, suffering from long term chronic poverty, deprivation and decline. Unsolved. Jack McConnell’s candid assessment of his own constituency and my home town as, and I quote ‘a pig sty’. Afters decades of representation by himself and John Reid both high profile and powerful Labour politicians (as well as eternal ownership of the local council). Unsolved. This is not peculiar to Labour, but is just proportionate to Labours Westminster dominance in Scotland. As I say, I see it as systemic failure in having able politicians representing us, who the Scots as whole have no real control over the government that these politicians need for career patronage.
#14 by Allan on November 19, 2012 - 3:29 pm
None of which asks for ordinary Scottish people’s opinion on whether we should stay/become part of the EU if we vote to become Independent.
Indeed, the real issue with regards to Salmond’s handling of the EU membership issue is the assumed majority support for remaining a part of the EU, where I suspect that the above poll has correctly spotted a trend showing Scotland is, while not as Eurosceptic as the rest of the UK is becoming more sceptical towards EU Institutions.
Of course, since “Better Together” repesent the status quo, they can afford to say nothing on this issue while watching Salmond hoist himself on his own petard.
#15 by Braco on November 19, 2012 - 5:15 pm
Would you want the decision of Scotland to stay or leave the EU to be in the hands of the Scots electorate or that of the UK? Whichever your EU tastes, I think this is the only relevant question to ask yourself in relation to the 2014 independence referendum. Westminster seem set upon deciding this issue in the near future post indy referendum irrespective of it’s result.
#16 by Allan on November 20, 2012 - 2:12 pm
Braco, the point is that the decision should be made by the electorate, not by politicians squabbling over whether Scotland would remain in the EU or whether they would have to reapply in the event of Scotland voting “yes” in 2014.
#17 by Braco on November 21, 2012 - 10:19 pm
Allan, I agree but expecting the political manifestos of the Scottish parties to be written before the result of the referendum is not really realistic. The unionist parties are not even forwarding any policies an independent Scotland under their rule might follow never mind adding ideas to what might be in it’s constitution. Subjects of contention such as the EU may be addressed by all the new independents and post independence parties in the drafting of the new constitution. The SNP are simply stating that, as in the NATO debate, Scotland’s starting position in relation to already signed international treaty obligations will begin as the same as that of the UK. That does not stop any future elected government from change, be that via referendum or party politics in line with the agreed constitution. Independence is the beginning of change and not it’s culmination.
#18 by Iain Menzies on November 20, 2012 - 2:37 pm
NO one is suggesting that only the scottish electorate should have a say. There are plenty of people who are suggesting that the UK electorate should have that say, most of them being tories. But i havent heard anyone from the Scottish Governemnt, the SNP, ofr yes scotland saying that there will, or even should be a referendum on EU membership post a yes vote.
If there is a yes vote….then it is none of the scottish electorates business what the rUK government decides with regards EU membership.
If its a No vote..then as Jeff points out from the polling there isnt much of a difference in the views of scots to the rest of the UK so i wouldnt expect any referendum on Europe to give a different answer in scotland to rUK.
#19 by Braco on November 21, 2012 - 10:34 pm
I agree that if it’s a Yes….then it is none of the scottish electorates business what the rUK government decides with regards EU membership.
As for your first point, please see my last answer to Allan. The Scots electorate can only solely express an opinion on EU membership post Independence. Would you not concede that the views of an independent Scotland’s electorate may be very different to that of one that has voted to stay within the Union? Are the ramifications not different?
#20 by Angus McLellan on November 20, 2012 - 3:09 am
Better Together might like to say nothing, but Dave and Ed and Nick (and Nige) aren’t going to STFU about the EU because it seems like it might matter in England. That’s right, England, the place where Westminster elections are won or lost, as opposed to Scotland, a place where Westminster elections rarely matter at all.
#21 by Braco on November 20, 2012 - 10:34 am
I totally agree Angus. Most of the ‘Better No’ campaign will be out of their control just as most of the unionist political parties Scottish branches have little or no control over real policy making. Lets hope the results are the same when the Scots electorate have to come to a decision on the relative merits of the arguments in 2014.
#22 by Allan on November 20, 2012 - 2:21 pm
“That’s right, England, the place where Westminster elections are won or lost, as opposed to Scotland, a place where Westminster elections rarely matter at all.”
There’s a very good reason why Westminster elections are not decided in Scotland, in many people’s mind’s there is no credible alternative to voting for the guys wearing red rosettes (no matter how right wing you or I think they are).
#23 by Braco on November 21, 2012 - 11:21 pm
Or maybe because we make up less than 9% of the electorate even if we all voted for the exact same party. Something that we have never done, no matter how dominant the red rosettes have appeared to be up here.
#24 by HenBroon on November 19, 2012 - 6:11 pm
Jeff the point has been made many many time and I also believe the EU have stated the same opinion, that until Scotland is an independent country no definitions will be forthcoming, and none can be asked for. Legal opinion abounds on the subject. Alex Salmond will have had many opinions given to him, he is as we now all know not obliged to say if he has asked or if he has been given. Governments take legal advice every day of the week, Westminster has done and is refusing to acknowledge any thing yet strangely the SNP must. Chicanery, hypocrisy and cant.
If such a decision had been made in 2004 as you say then it would be shouted from the roof tops by the NO to Scotland campaign. And it would be available on the EU web site and on Google it is neither. A vague opinion expressed by a Spanish unionist, with his beady eye on Catalonia, quoted in the Huff is utterly meaningless. What has been stated by the SNP is the actual state of play. Are you really saying that England and Spain will be so childish and petulant as to try and expel Scotland from a union that we are already in. I am an EU citizen by what law will that citizen ship be taken away? No laws exist in the EU to expel members. That is a fact, disprove it! This is all just background hiss from petulant disgruntled unionist politicians who stand to loose their comfy life style in London come independence day. Much greater legal minds than ours have expressed these views I posted above, which you try and dismiss as “all very interesting.” What a peculiar reaction.
#25 by Iain Menzies on November 20, 2012 - 2:41 pm
Every Estonia was a Soviet Citizen. The Irish were British Citizens. The Austrians were German not all that long ago.
If we vote to leave the UK, then are we not voting to give up our British Citizenship?
If we are EU citizens BECAUSE we are British Citizens, and we are no longer British citizens….then its not hard to build the legal case that says you have choosen to give up your EU citizenship.
#26 by Grahamski on November 20, 2012 - 8:07 am
I’ll try that again with out the literals…
The truth of the matter is that the decision on a separate Scotland’s relationship with the EU won’t be taken in Edinburgh but in Brussels by the member states.
The SNP can say what they like, assert what they like, produce newspaper cuttings from two decades ago or regurgitate press releases from long-dead nationalists all they want. The idea that the member states’ decisions will take into account internal UK treaties like the 1707 Act of Union or arcane arguments about international treaties is risible.
The decision will be taken on what best serves those member states’ interests.
I can’t imagine a set of circumstances which would see an application for membership from a separate Scotland blocked by the EU just like I can’t imagine a separate Scotland being given automatic membership as claimed by the SNP.
#27 by HenBroon on November 20, 2012 - 3:29 pm
Your failure to acknowledge that Scotland is already in the EU and that I as a Scottish resident and voter am a citizen of the EU demonstrates the paucity and desperation in your thread bare argument. There can be no application to join the EU from a country that is already in it, and there is no legal mechanism in the EU to strip citizens of their citizenship. My passport says I am an EU citizen, will they send the EU Army to my door to confiscate it?
As to assertions, all we hear from the unionists are assertions and scare stories. Is it not assertion to suggest that by voting to leave the union with England we then become non citizens of the EU and are instantly expelled? What utter nonsense and fabrication. The desperation we now see on the faces of the unionists as each scaremongering myth is dispelled is hilarious, as we saw when Ken Macintosh trembling behind his new tash was roundly humiliated by Stewart Hosie last night on STV and then if that were not enough on Newsnicht. Bitter Together needs to get a new script writer. The lates report from the IFS has torn up a lot of their scripts, even Darling is now denying, or rather lying that he never said Scotland was to poor to go it alone. Read another decimation of it all here:
http://tiny.cc/qyv2nw
#28 by Indy on November 21, 2012 - 9:40 am
That’s kind of confused because the SNP is very clear that the decision will be taken in Brussels. That’s why the legal opinons they have historically relied on come from Commission people and European lawyers, not from British sources.
The automaticity argument is entirely practical because it would be practically impossible to remove Scotland from the EU the day after independence. Nobody has ever said that there won’t be negotiations – but those will take place from within the EU.
To take just one example – the CFP. On the day after independence will Scotland still be in the CFP? Well, if it isn’t then every non-Scottish fishing vessel will be barred from Scottish waters. That actually might be quite popular in Scotland but less so with the rest of Europe!
At heart this is actually a practical rather than a legal matter. Practically speaking it would be incredibly difficult for Scotland to leave the EU. The practical difficulties of leaving the EU explain,I think, why the Tories when they get into government always back down on their eurosceptic threats because it would be a nightmare to actually have to do it.
But if Scotland did actually leave, who knows what would happen? If we imagine a scenario where Scotland was actually chucked out of the EU I think the pressure on rUK to also leave – from the House of Commons and also probably from an increasingly eurosceptic English public – would be compelling. That is one of the reasons I think we can be quite certain that Brussels would just say OK you are in, please sign on the dotted line Mr Salmond.
#29 by gavin on November 20, 2012 - 7:36 pm
Grahamski- all we need is for the Westminster Government to ask the EU for their stance on this. They are willing to do so if the UK’s Government ask. Why wont they? We must speculate it would be something they would not want to hear. Given what Graham Avery (honorary Director-General of the Earopean Commission ) has stated in evidence to Parliament about Scotlands position and the precedent set for German re-accession, I find it astonishing that the SNP are not pushing for clarification. I suspect Mr Avery is giving the “inside” slant on this.
#30 by Chris Fyfe on November 20, 2012 - 10:45 pm
I think the opposition to the EU is very soft. There is almost never any pro-EU discussion, the Euro is getting a battering and there is little political mileage in being pro-European.
However should there ever be a referendum on EU membership the seriousness of the matter would come to the fore and the sentimental anti-europeans would let their head sway their heart.
#31 by Charles Fox on November 21, 2012 - 4:18 pm
Remember the EU’s stated aim (1980s) – to make North Sea oil a common European (Union) resource.