It must take a lot of thought before one decides to leave a political party, especially when you are the top of the rankings list for a region that your party probably won’t win a First Past the Post constituency in. However, Hugh O’donnell has done just that, abandoning the Lib Dems 6 weeks shy of the election date. The party has not been slow to completely cut the cord, removing his page on the party website and saying that he “won’t be missed”.

So will this affect the result in Central? Well, the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to win a seat and the public don’t tend to vote for parties that are falling apart so one can only assume that this will have an impact.

Labour cannot expect to win any list MSPs here and the Tories won’t be looking beyond the token Tory they win in this part of Scotland each time. Consequently, it will be the SNP and the Greens (or perhaps SCCUP/Socialists) that shall be scrapping for Hugh O’Donnell’s generous spoils.

On current polling one has to suspect that this move points towards 6 SNP MSPs on the Central list. A first for Holyrood and a potential game-changer once all votes are counted?

Nats might be queuing up to buy Hugh a drink on May 6th.

One of the advantages to living in London is that when something really big happens in this country, it tends to be happening on my doorstep. Take today’s big event – a mass of screaming students, a police presence, unions travelling from afar to the big City because of the blues and lots of kettles on the go. It’s not every day I get to attend the Oxford vs Cambridge Boat Race so it’ll nice to toddle along to it this afternoon.

There is, of course, another large event taking place in London today, the TUC’s national demonstration, this one focused on the coalition cuts and calls for an alternative.

While I sense there exists strong and convincing arguments against the speed of the cuts that the coalition is bringing in, it is difficult to really believe in them when the main Opposition struggles to fall behind a distinct narrative that it not only believes in but is also a clear alternative to what the Government is trying to do. Portugal being the latest country to require a bailout should be a timely reminder that the UK has it all to lose if it gets this wrong and it is difficult to argue against balancing the books as quickly as possible. “Moral indignation and political failure” as The Times had it yesterday, ‘student politics’ as many of the rest of Ed Miliband’s detractors call it. I’m inclined to agree.

Perhaps there is time for a hero of the left to rise above the fray and show real leadership against the Osborne’s and Clegg’s of this country. Until then, protests will just seem like a lot of noise over not very much.

I’ll be at the boat race rather than the marches in body today, I can’t say I’ll really be at either in spirit.

Mid Scotland & Fife 2007-11 constituency colours

The fourth in our series of examinations of the Scottish Parliament regions, this time I’m in the hotseat and looking at Mid-Scotland and Fife.  Previous posts on Highlands & Islands, North-East Scotland and the Lothians have all been vigorously debated, so I suspect I’ll ruffle a few feathers again.  Here goes (constituencies first):

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane – Tight, very tight.  The profile of an SNP minister who holds the seat against the profile of a former Labour minister who notionally holds the seat.  I’ve been told the word “disgraced” is supposed to precede “former” in the latter’s case (there’s apparently a memo).  But we’re fairer than that here (no mud-slinging from us).  Nevertheless, the mud that has been previously slung, does stick a bit… and leads me to think that the SNP will cling on here… just about.  SNP hold (Keith Brown – returning).

Cowdenbeath – Likely comfortable.   We’re getting into “dyed in the wool” territory here, I imagine. Labour hold (Helen Eadie – returning).

Dunfermline – This is trickier.  Lib Dem held, but boundary changes plus the corresponding seat returned to Labour at Westminster.  I’m really not sure on this one – it probably depends on how much the national LD vote share holds up, but a notional majority of just 77 makes me think it unlikely they’ll hang on. Lab GAIN (Alex Rowley – new face).

Kirkcaldy – A notional majority of over 3,000, I can’t see this being anything other than a Lab hold (Marlyn Livingstone – returning).

Mid-Fife and Glenrothes – This is a seat where I thought the SNP incumbent might be in trouble, but statistically that isn’t the case.  Notionally, they have a majority of over 2,000.  However, the SNP do run the council, and there have been some tough decisions made (which perhaps influenced the outcome of the Glenrothes by-election).  So I expect it to be closer, but the SNP to hang on here.  SNP hold (Tricia Marwick – returning)

North-East Fife – A solid Lib Dem seat, but it is the home of a university and this may adversely affect the party’s popularity here.  If it goes, its a shocker of a night for the Lib Dems, given the notional 4,500 majority.  I can see that halved, but not disappearing entirely.  Surely?  Lib Dem hold (Iain Smith – returning)

Perthshire North – a notional 6,000+ majority for the Cabinet Secretary for Finance. Comfortable hold.  SNP hold (John Swinney – returning)

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire – A narrower notional majority of 1,400 for the SNP to defend, but I think if their national vote holds up, this will remain safe.  I think the Tories will throw a lot at it, and probably run them close, dropping the majority to under 1,000… but the SNP will hang on. SNP hold (Roseanna Cunningham – returning)

Stirling – Here’s a tricky one, and one which a lot of regional seats depend on.  This is notionally Labour (by 300 or so votes) but its held by the SNP.  I have a lot of family in the area, all very impressed with the work Bruce Crawford has done, certainly much more so than the previous MSP and so the incumbency factor may play a part here.  Look for the Tories to try and get a bit closer in third… but I think Bruce hangs on here too.  Just. (notional) SNP GAIN (Bruce Crawford – returning)

With all constituencies accounted for, I make it:

SNP – 5
Labour 3
Lib Dem – 1

Throwing that into my electoral calculator, and using the same methodology as before (opinion polls divided by ratio from 2007) I make the regional seat division to be:

Seat 1: Conservative (Murdo Fraser – returning)
Seat 2: Conservative (Elizabeth Smith – returning)
Seat 3: Lib Dem (Willie Rennie – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)
Seat 4: Labour (John Park – returning)
Seat 5: Conservative (Miles Briggs – new face)
Seat 6: Green (Mark Ruskell – new face for 2011 but returning from 2003-7 session)
Seat 7: SNP (Annabelle Ewing – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)

(Seat 8 would be Labour, with Claire Baker returning to Holyrood, but she loses out if Labour take the Dunfermline constituency from the Lib Dems as the latter are compensated on the list)

There was a mistake in my methodology, which heavily UNDERSTATED Labour’s vote share.  Thanks to several folk for pointing out I’d made a mistake. I couldn’t find it earlier, but I’ve found it now.  Anyway, revised figures mean the following:

Seat 1: Conservative (Murdo Fraser – returning)
Seat 2: Conservative (Elizabeth Smith – returning)
Seat 3: Labour (John Park – returning)
Seat 4: Labour (Claire Baker – returning)
Seat 5: Lib Dem (Willie Rennie – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)
Seat 6: Conservative (Miles Briggs – new face)
Seat 7: SNP (Annabelle Ewing – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)

(Seat 8 would be Green – Mark Ruskell returning to Holyrood after missing the 2007-11 session).

So, expected Mid-Scotland and Fife result (2007 in brackets):

SNP –5 + 1 =6 (6)
Labour – 3 + 2 = 5 (5)
Lib Dem – 1 + 1 = 2 (2)
Conservative – 0 + 3 = 3 (3)
7 female to 9 male
12 returning to 4 new faces (2 already known to us as former MPs or MSPs from a previous session)

Tactical voting?
The net result is a Green gain from Labour overall, which is the case whether Labour win Dunfermline from the Lib Dems or not. The net result would now be NO CHANGE from 2007.  The Lib Dems are due two seats, so if they don’t win one seat, they’ll get one on the list.  Similarly, the Tories are likely to win 3 of the list seats, while the Greens, with their share of the vote, are also likely to return one.  Which leaves 2 (or 3, depending on Dunfermline) up for grabs.  This will depend on the close constituencies – if the SNP hang on in all 5, they’ll claim one list seat and Labour the other (as outlined above).  If Lab gain one constituency from the SNP (as well as the likely win in Dunfermline), the SNP would win 2 list seats, compensating for their constituency losses (and providing the same overall result, if not faces, as above – we’d also lose John Park from the Parliament).  If Labour take THREE constituencies from the SNP (unlikely?) as well as Dunfermline, then there is a net gain for Labour.  In that final scenario however, the Greens would only take the last seat by 200 votes from the SNP… so I guess if the Greens want some tactical voting advice here it is to heavily push for the list vote – I make them short by around 500 or so votes now…

Commenting:
Regrettably, on some of the more recent threads, some of the comments have gotten a bit personal and unfocused.  Unfortunately, as the election gets closer and tension rises, this is likely to get worse.  We don’t want this to turn into the comments sections on “quality” newspapers with the excessive aggressive bile on there.  So let’s try to keep the comments as polite as possible and “respectfully disagree”.  Otherwise, you can shout about freedom of speech all you like – they will be moderated and binned.  Thanks in advance.

So it’s almost all over then. One more Chamber ding-dong and that will have been the pariamentary term that was. I guess arguing loudly is the Holyrood equivalent of being allowed to bring games in (as long as they’re quiet) but whatever floats their boat. I’m still not ruling out a game of ‘heads down, thumbs up’ (Labour has been practising this game for the past few weeks).

For tens of MSPs, golden goodbyes and retirement beckons and for more still they are simply being ‘retired’, not sitting high enough on the party lists to realistically be re-elected thanks to less than dazzling performances over the past four years. I won’t name any names but discussing £500bn PFI issues on Newsnight (as opposed to £m) isn’t going to help your cause.

So has it all been worth it? On balance one would have to say yes though one could argue that paying for a largely talentless crowd of people to call each other liars for four years is a waste of time and money but that would surely be too harsh. There will be a refinement of personnel from this term to next, the Parliament will evolve as a direct result of parties picking stronger politicians, though a few exceptions will slip through I am sure. 

On policy, lest we forget, the direct comparison is with Westminster and many Scottish succeses would have been unlikely to have been achieved from London. These include a Council Tax Freeze, a solid commitment to renewable targets, keeping tuition free, safeguarding free care for the elderly, a focus on class sizes and moving away, slowly, from expensive PFI contracts. I’m sure I could celebrate more achievements from 2007-11 if my knowledge and memory were a bit sharper!

One bit of effort that doesn’t yet earn the accolade ‘achievement’ is that of the Calman process. It is too early to say what the conclusion to that mysterious piece of legislation will be but one can only suspect it is taking us halfway to something ‘other’, probably full fiscal autonomy. 

The stand out moment of the past four years is of course the decision by Kenny MaxAskill to release the Lockerbie bomber on compassionate grounds, a decision that split the nation and even the world for a short while. I had a rare sense of pride in our Government at what took place that day and still do. Between the US inhumanely incarcerating Bradley Manning and Scotland freeing a dying man, I know which side of the Atlantic I’d sooner take lectures from. 

Furthermore, to focus so squarely on Megrahi after an act of state-sponsored terrorism, ordered by a leader that is even today chaining Libyans to tanks and rocket launchers to prevent them escaping, is to miss the bigger picture and ignore a much greater dereliction of duty. I do worry that this heavily raked over issue will prove a scourge and a distraction over the coming weeks.

But onwards we look and what will the next four years bring? Noone knows for sure of course but a food revolution, a sustained drive on renewable energy, more sensibly priced transport and cross-party efforts to really drive up results at school would be good, regardless of whether one interprets “results” as academic/interpersonal/sporting or whatever. There is no reason why Scotland should not look towards the coming half-decade with optimism and enthusiasm.

We just have the small matter of an election campaign and Government to form before then.