So is there a significant funding gap for Higher Education or not?

Well, now we know that there is as the SNP has put forward proposals to not just charge English students higher fees but also EU students.

The policy is a far cry from the ‘equal partner in Europe’ calls from yesteryear, when the SNP’s main objective was clearly independence.
Part of the attraction of the European project for me is the effort to drive out inequality by removing the myopic, overly-Nationalist view of individual policies. I can study in Sweden for free just as easily as a Swede can study ‘gratis’ in Skottland. We’re all Robert Schuman’s bairns after all.

So, this legally dubious move of making Europe distinctly unequal smacks less of principle and more of the harsh realities of running a Government during difficult times. Stuck between the unpalatable options of introducing fees or raising more revenue, the SNP has lurched for a third unworkable option but it won’t wash and that fierce sun continues to beat down on those warm rocks.

Scotland won’t progress by ducking the difficult decisions. Labour is turning a blind eye to the funding gap for universities and the SNP is looking outside our borders for a solution. The Greens have quite calmly made the straightforward suggestion that policies such as these need to be paid for with extra revenue, a policy that looks more reasonable and more honest as time draws on.

The release of the official manifestos are still some way off but it looks like we’ll need to give some of them a right good going over if they are going to pass the sniff test.

To suggest that the nuclear meltdown in Japan is a reason for Scotland to review its mix of energy generation is, on the face of it, opportunistic nonsense. The likelihood of a tsunami or a size 8.9 earthquake hammering our east coast is practically zero.

However, it would be foolish and complacently negligent to dismiss any link between the mounting tragedy in Japan and the case for nuclear power in Scotland. We may not be prone to a tsunami (though with a coastline longer than most other nations’ around the world and a hefty 60%+ of China’s, I wouldn’t entrely rule it out) but a terrorist attack on one of our two nuclear plants, an aircraft crashing in the worst possible location nor human error cannot be dismissed as huge risks to Scotland’s safety and wellbeing. It was only last year that a train carrying toxic waste had a bump on the tracks, nothing to worry about we were told….

The arguments against nuclear stack up pretty quickly…

First point – there’s some nasty chemicals that go into these plants and while there is excellent safety surrounding the handling of them, the closer you bring a poison to your door, the more likely it is going to cause problems for you.

Second point – nuclear power simply isn’t necessary in Scotland. We can power ourselves many times over with the right renewables investment. For every pound we spend on nuclear (power, or weapons) we are spending a pound less on ensuring Scotland is amongst the world leaders for wave, wind and other renewables sources of power generation.

Third point – The expense. I appreciate that many are under the misconception that nuclear power is cheap, which it is strictly in terms of base load, but to exclude the obscene decommissioning costs is like saying using a credit card is cheap when you throw the unopened bills in the trash.

Business is chomping at the bit to get lucrative nuclear stations up and running, far from incentivised by the harder path that renewable generation offers.

This is where people power and political parties have to step in. It really is up to us. While I do think the SNP ‘gets it’ but is seduced by the convenience of coal too often, it is only the Greens that have taken a consistently steadfast stance against the dirtiest and most dangerous forms of energy production available.

The probability that Scotland will see the world’s next Fukushima is practically zero. Let’s reduce that risk all the way to nought by casting off the bowlines, seizing our opportunity and making sure we return parties to Government that are only intent on taking the longer, harder but ultimatately more rewarding long-term path towards a country powered 100% by renewables.

Jeff and I have divided the regions between us for analytical purposes (its not really fair to ask James, given his employers are involved in the process!) so I’m up next with a look at how the North-East of Scotland could potentially pan out in May.  Given my scepticism of opinion polls, this might be interesting – but also given we’re looking for some consistency, I figure its better that we both use a similar methodology… so using here’s my take on it.

Naturally, we need to look at the constituencies first:

Aberdeen Central – This is notionally very close. Labour won it in 2007 by just 350-ish votes, and boundary changes make it notionally SNP (if you are David Denver) or notionally Labour (if you are Will Patterson) with the Lib Dems notionally quite close in third.  But this is all on paper.  The SNP have their council leader, Kevin Stewart, as candidate while Lewis MacDonald is the incumbent Labour MSP.  I think toss a coin… but give it marginally to Labour (council is LD-SNP + opinion polls point this way). Labour hold (Lewis MacDonald – returning).

Aberdeen Donside – Should be a relatively straightforward hold for the SNP, boundary changes notwithstanding. SNP hold (Brian Adam – returning).

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – This one could be interesting.  When the Lib Dems win seats, they tend to entrench, and keep winning.  Nicol Stephen won the corresponding seat for them – as party leader, so with a high profile – in 2007 with a majority of 2,700, but with an 11% swing AWAY from the Lib Dems.  Its notionally still Lib Dem – a majority of just over 2,000 (on the Denver figures) but with Nicol Stephen standing down and Maureen Watt (list MSP) standing for the SNP, this could be tighter.  Though it will likely be a bad night for the Lib Dems, its seats like this that will continue their over-representation in FPTP seats… but not by much I wouldn’t think – maybe less than 500 votes. Lib Dem hold (John Sleigh – new face).

Aberdeenshire East – Its the FM’s seat at the moment, and barring any massive shocks, it’ll still be Alex Salmond’s seat after the election.  Whether he is still FM after it though, is more difficult to foresee.  SNP hold (Alex Salmond – returning).

Aberdeenshire West – Similar to AS&NK above, this is a relatively safe Lib Dem seat, though boundary changes do turn an actual 5,100 majority into a notional 3,700 one.  And again, despite a Lib Dem vote which is likely to fall, they should still manage to hold on – given there is no high-profile challenger, and the opposition is split between yellow and blue – though expect a majority of less than 2,000. Lib Dem hold (Mike Rumbles – returning).

Angus North & Mearns – Splitting Angus in two gives the SNP an opportunity to claim 2 seats in the area instead of one – a chance they will likely take.  This one is notionally SNP by 5,000 votes, making it a comfortable SNP hold (Nigel Don – returning).

Angus South – Despite Andrew Welsh’s retirement, the SNP should maintain their hold on Angus here, with a notional majority of 6,000.  Expect that to drop, but the party to return comfortably. SNP hold (Graeme Dey – new face).

Banffshire & Buchan Coast – The SNP’s majority in the corresponding seat in 2007 was one of the largest (the largest in fact?) in Scotland.  Should be straightforward, even with new boundaries. SNP hold (Stewart Stevenson – returning).

Dundee City East – Shona Robison has been MSP for here since 2003. Higher profile as a minister should help, and with a majority of over 4,000, she should be back again. SNP hold (Shona Robison – retuning).

Dundee City West – Despite this majority being half of Shona Robison’s, I expect this also to maintain the SNP’s dominance over the City of Discovery. SNP hold (Joe FitzPatrick – returning).

Thus, with all constituencies accounted for, we end up with a division of:

SNP – 7
Lib Dem – 2
Labour – 1

Now, to the list seats – and a quick explanation of methodology.  We’re using the most recent poll figures (Lab-36%, SNP-32%, Con-15%, LD-11% and Green -6%) but with a twist.  Given those are national figures, it makes more sense to make it more regional.  So, using we’ve used the 2007 list figures to work out the proportion of the national vote the respective regional vote makes up, and subsequently applied that proportion to the poll figure.  This should make it more region-specific.  This isn’t that easy to explain, so if you are particularly interested, I can email the working.  But for the north-east, that means using revised list figures of Lab - 24.48%, SNP – 41.6% Lib Dem – 15.18% Con – 15.6% Green – 4.62%.

Which means we’re looking at a list distribution of:

Seat 1: Conservative (Alex Johnstone – returning)
Seat 2: Labour (Richard Baker – returning)
Seat 3: Labour (Jenny Marra – new face)
Seat 4: Conservative (Nanette Milne – returning)
Seat 5: Labour (Lesley McMahon – new face [#4 on Lab list but Lewis McDonald elected in constituency])
Seat 6: SNP (Maureen Watt – returning)
Seat 7: Conservative (Hughie Campbell Adamson – new face)

(Seat 8 would be: Lib Dem – but closely contested by Labour and Greens)

So, expected North-East Scotland result (2007 in brackets):

SNP –7 + 1 =8 (8)
Labour – 1 + 3 = 4 (3)
Lib Dem – 2 + 0 = 2 (3)
Conservative – 0 + 3 = 3 (2)

An extra constituency increases the amount of MSPs from the North-East from 15 to 16, with Labour and the Tories the beneficiaries and the Lib Dems losing out.

Taking a leaf out of Jeff’s book, tactical considerations for the region:
No clue!  Its difficult to see how tactical voting can help anyone other than the big parties, as any constituency gain would be compensated for by a list loss, and the Greens are (on these, hypothetical, figures) a good bit away from winning a seat.  I guess if you are a Tory, to gain another list seat you could perhaps vote tactically in a constituency to get another Labour MSP there, and hope that you had enough list votes to overcome the SNP there.  Guess that works for the Lib Dems and Greens too.

There was a time when the SNP’s main appeal was as a direct result of the thrust and vigour with which the party threw itself into the issues of the day. Furthermore, there was no issue too challenging, too difficult, that the Nationalists weren’t too afraid to stick their oar into – PFI, free school meals, minimum pricing, Council Tax, constitutional matters, tuition fees, class sizes. Everything was on the table and the nation itself felt up for grabs.

That was four years ago and the tone of the election campaign has changed dramatically. There is a certain timidity to the SNP’s mood these days; that is perhaps due to the cat-and-mouse nature of policy setting at the moment, not to mention the difficult decision over whether being in power or out of power this time around is best for the independence objective. Furthermore, there is a crowded field in the centre and differentiating between parties is not so easy.

This is all not, I hasten to add, necessarily the SNP’s fault. It is difficult to distinguish yourself from the crowd when the main opposition is intent on aping your headline policies. On that, it will surely be to Labour’s disadvantage that between his stated preference of Council Tax rises and the popular option of scrapping the rates entirely, Iain Gray has compromised with a two year freeze (followed by a cap on rate rises below inflation). Labour looked downright silly in claiming that the SNP were copying their policy on free education when Labour introduced fees in a previous term (with the Lib Dems) and have been long term supporters of a graduate contribution.

Despite the perception of a decrease in energy besetting the SNP, they should (and clearly do) remain upbeat. Political parties are a bit like football teams after all, they only have to beat the team that is standing in front of them. If in 2007 the SNP was Brazil, then in 2011 they are more like a scrappy France – not at full potential but still on paper good enough to beat the main opposition of Iain Gray’s 10-men-behind-the-ball Greece.

A second term should be more difficult to win, and deliver in, than a first. It is the natural order of things for a public to want more and a Government to be pushed harder. Alex Salmond seems to welcome that challenge and murmurings of whether the man should have handed over to Nicola Sturgeon a year or so ago have been rightly silenced. Alex Salmond does appear to be ‘the man for the job’ as many recognised Scots have stated in the Sundays, (Jack Vettriano picking up the baton from Brian Souter and David Murray today) and he does seem to have the policies to go with it. The SNP has made clear that safeguarding free tuition, protecting and increasing investment in the NHS and ensuring zero forced redundancies will be its priorities for the term to come and, with a dwindling budget, that’s as many headline policies as one can expect from whoever takes control of Holyrood from May.

The SNP conference may have denied us any shocks, surprises or major celebrations but that’s the limit of what a party in the tail end of its fourth year of Government should be hoping for. A slick website, a strong vision, an impressive record and a solid team of Ministers. That’s a decent platform for a having a right good go at a difficult election.

And anyway, the key consideration for Scots is reason(s) for a changing of the guard at Holyrood, reason(s) to risk switching First Ministers and substituting the existing Cabinet. The SNP’s front team and leader offered up no such reasons this weekend.

The May 5th ball remains in Iain Gray’s court and while the SNP may not have the same zip and verve as four years ago, it does have more and more of the court covered. There is only several weeks left for Labour to play a decisive game-winning move but, contradictory as it may sound, the party that is currently second in the polls has put a stranglehold squeeze on its main opposition.

The decisive factor for this election remains personality. This weekend Alex Salmond has proved that Iain Gray has it all to do.