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‘Labour Hame’ settles into Scotland’s blogosphere

Jun 6

Posted by Jeff in Housekeeping, Parties | 17 Comments

Just a quick post to welcome Labour Hame to the Scottish blogosphere.

The brainchild of Tom Harris and billed as wanting ‘Scottish Labour’s voice to be heard again but first we need to know what we’re for and what we want to say.’, it looks like the site is aimed at being a catch all party blog from grassroots, through council and Holyrood up to Westminster level. A Scottish Labour home basically, if that wasn’t clear from the title! A big ask for a single website but if it draws out online debate on the Labour side of the Scottish divide, something that we feel we’ve done rather successfully here a Better Nation, then it is to be welcomed.

So go and have a look. Yours truly even got a spot amidst the flurry of today’s opening posts, speculating on why I hadn’t been inspired to vote Labour in my 12 years of being of voting age.

We wish them all the best and look forward to probably locking horns in the future!

A short guide to beating the Bookies

Jun 4

Posted by Guest Blog in Parties, Westminster | 11 Comments

A very welcome guest post from Ross McCafferty who, much to his annoyance, you will probably know better as @HolyroodPatter. Ross is a former blogger and parliamentary worker who recently mothballed his much loved blog and instead has opted for just incessant tweeting on Scottish and sometimes UK Politics. A current political history student, he can normally be found analysing, arguing and annoying on twitter, because anything beats studying.

Following Jeff’s recent post, I was delighted to be offered the chance to have my tuppence worth on whether money can really be made betting on politics. The short answer, of course, is yes.

Those who took a punt on the SNP winning most seats at 3, 5, even 7 to 1 are no doubt leafing through their winnings happily by now. But it is in a UK context that the bookmakers continue to seem to defy conventional wisdom so you can, with a fair amount of guesswork and a half decent political analysis, make money on politics.

Take the next Permanent Tory Leader. I should say from the off that a certain amount of patience is required in this tricky field. No one expects a vacancy any time soon, but let us imagine that the Conservatives contrive to lose the General Election of 2015, Ed Milliband is swept to power and David Cameron is facing the job club. No leader could survive such a defeat.

Now, to the options to replace him; the Bookmakers offer odds of 4, 5, and 6 to one respectively on the three favourites. And they are? Boris Johnson, William Hague and George Osborne. No, really. Despite his designs on the top job (that is allowing for the rather generous assumption that Boris has designs on anything) there is absolutely no way someone as divisive, chequered, and frankly dim would be elected to lead HM opposition. Hague couldn’t get the Tories any advance on the electoral demolition of 1997, he is not a viable candidate. And Osborne? I would make him at least a twenty to one outsider. Should the Tories be booted from office, presumably because of losing a spending cuts argument, why would anyone in their right mind vote for the Lieutenant of that Cutters Army to lead the party and the country? And I see very little evidence of  a Granita esque handover. Mr Cameron, if he is allowed, is in this for the long haul.

So to my advice. Avoid ludicrous 200/1 shots like Guido Fawkes or Nadine Dorries. One’s a rabid right wing blogger with a suspicious agenda, and the other is Guido Fawkes. It is in the middle of the pack where the real value lies. Greg Clarke 18/1, Ed Vaisey, 25/1 Nick Herbert and Zac Goldsmith both at 33!

It is the same with the Labour Party. Despite Yvette Cooper being an 11/4 favourite, parliamentary experience is essential and Yvette, for all her demonstrable skills, has barely landed a blow on Theresa May, hardly the most combative of political operators.

Frankly, if some bookmakers are still daft enough to be giving you 25/1 on Jim Murphy, I would jump all over it. He has built a good profile down south, as evidenced by his seeming reluctance to touch the poisonous wreckage of the Scottish campaign with a barge pole.

There is a similar message in the shadow cabinet. Should Labour be trounced in 2015, the economic message having fallen flat, why would you elect the man responsible for articulating it? Step forward Mr E Balls, 8/1 third favourite. I am entirely ignoring David Milliband because being beaten was most probably an equally chastening, but massively financially rewarding set of circumstances for him.

Chukka Umuna is my tip (Google Umuna Obama for all the evidence you need to see he is winning over the intellectual base of the party) and he is good value at 12/1, although he has to show just a smidge more personality than was evident from his eerily polished recent Question Time appearance. It’d be cruel not to mention the Lib Dems, but can anyone see past Tim Farron? 3/1 on him remains good value though I am pleased to see Charlie Kennedy’s odds come in to almost 10/1, I backed him at 20/1 last year.

Rounding up with a few other matters, William Hill are offering the ludicrously generous odds of 2/1 that the next general election will be in 2015. The coalition has already shown that it can survive most strife and scandal with its belief in the greater good and all that business; although you will have to spend a fair chunk to see any return.

These bets can almost slip under the radar: despite myself and Jeff ranting about it. The odds offered by Ladbrokes of 3/1 on between 0 and 2 Scots Tory MPs were very generous and I wasn’t the only one who backed it. For a very long term bet, why not take the offer of 10/1 that Ed Milliband will be in post longer than Tony Blair? It’s not entirely inconceivable; if Ed wins in 2015, sees out 2.5 parliamentary terms then he has done the job! 13/2 on a Labour/Lib Dem Coalition in 2015 isn’t a bad bet either, and I would be failing in party duty if I didn’t tell you all to back the 5/4 option that Scotland will vote Yes in the upcoming independence referendum.

So there we have it, all that’s required is a bit of political nous, the bravery to trust your instincts, a lot of luck and plenty of patience. They don’t call it “taking a punt” for nothing!

An air of resignation.

May 31

Posted by James in Holyrood, Parties | 18 Comments

Malcolm ChisholmThere are some who have touted Malcolm Chisholm as a possible Labour leader. I personally wasn’t convinced – the party’s remaining senior MSPs still hold a number of sins against him, including defending the Megrahi decision and voting for minimum pricing – but his reputation as a serial resigner from things won’t be helped by his decision today to leave the Labour front bench less than two weeks after taking the education brief. It doesn’t help Labour look like a steady ship either.

I like Malcolm, and I was personally very pleased he won his seat earlier in the month, but without any notable issue of principle this will come over as flakey to say the least. In December 1997 he was first out from the Blair Government over cuts to child benefit, in 2006 it was Trident, then in 2008 he left again – without an issue that time either.

Surely the next LOLITSP, whoever he or she is, won’t offer him another chance to resign.

UPDATE (from Kate).

It would appear that Malcolm Chisholm resigned his shadow Cabinet portfolio because he wanted to be Labour’s nominee for Convenorship of the health committee.  The Labour group (leadership?) wouldn’t wear it and so he kicked his baw away and walked off the pitch.  No doubt throwing a contemptuous look at his bench in the process.  Though he’s not quite thrown his jersey at their feet in disgust – yet.

There’s no denying it’s an odd one.  Yes, he does look increasingly like a serial resigner.  And as some have suggested, we do appear to have two independent MSPs by default.  Nowt wrong with that frankly.

But curiously, if he wanted a go at a big convenorship, why accept a shadow portfolio in the first place?  Or maybe at the time, there was no indication that Labour would get health, an area of great interest to Chisholm, and a seat on Labour’s front-bench seemed like a perfectly acceptable second best option.

James is right to point the finger at Labour too, still demonstrating a complete lack of strategic thinking.  Malcolm Chisholm was always going to be a better bet for a convenorship in terms of his skills, knowledge and expertise, than a ministerial brief which he had not engaged in before.  Whereas many were surprised to see Ken Macintosh kicked out into the long grass of culture – though his previous employment history here made an obvious two-dimensional match.  No, Labour still clearly has a lot of work to do to get its act together.  Surely, if it was going to bid for the health committee, it should have borne Chisholm in mind for the post?

We probably have witnessed the end of Chisholm’s hopes for a starring role in Holyrood in the next five years.  His group is highly unlikely to support his wish to be the next health committee convenor – unless it is *in* on the resignation and is prepared to stomach more chatter about their inability to be effectual at any level (though of course it will be tomorrow’s chip papers).  Realistically, it is probably his own decision and anonymity on the backbenches beckons for the next five years.

Chisholm’s only hope is that the SNP are happy to indulge in a little mischief-making and nominate and vote for him as convenor.  It would annoy Labour no end and would ensure such an important committee had a big name convenor.  And not one who would automatically play the partisan card on every issue.  In fact, they might find a convenor supporting many of their policies and bills, if previous performance can be relied upon.  Moreover, it would answer charges, currently piling up, of the First Minister’s talk of a consensual approach being little more than hot air.

If the SNP has any sense, a little magnanimity might go a long way on this occasion.

Will any Scottish Lib Dem MPs follow councillors into defecting?

May 29

Posted by Jeff in Parties, Westminster | 29 Comments

The past couple of weeks have seen several Liberal Democrat councillors switch allegiance to the SNP, no doubt partly due to disappointment with the actions of their former party at Westminster and partly with half an eye on next year’s local elections. In a UK context, they are not alone.

The Lib Dems difficult position is not getting any easier for Nick Clegg; his call for a more ‘muscular liberalism’ and objections outwith the coalition agreement won’t be accepted by the Conservatives and it also undermines his party’s stance on saying they had to increase tuition fees and increase VAT because it was in the coalition agreement. Why did Nick Clegg accept those policies but is now reacting against the NHS proposals when all of those policies were in the agreement? I suspect that will be the next circle the Lib Dems will have to square in the next few weeks, aside from dealing with Chris Huhne’s exit from Government of course.

The next Westminster election is probably still some way off, if the coalition does hold for the full five years then we have four long years to go. However, if any MPs are thinking about switching allegiance for principled or pragmatic reasons (particularly in Scotland in light of the Holyrood results), they are probably best to do so in the next year or two in order to avoid too many charges of naked opportunism, not to mention time to let local activists warm to them.

So which Scottish MPs might be considering the move?

Mike Crockart – Edinburgh West
Won a narrow selection contest to take the supposedly safe Lib Dem seat in 2010 but has since quit Government to vote against coalition proposals on tuition fees and watched on as the Lib Dems were wiped out in the Lothians in the Holyrood elections. A repeat result in next year’s council elections may well focus the mind for this young, up and coming politician.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Alan Reid – Argyll & Bute
In the past three Holyrood elections in this area, the Lib Dems have slumped from 1st (35% voteshare) through 2nd (32% voteshare) to 4th (12% voteshare). One coudl argue that the writing must surely be on the wall for Alan Reid even at this early stage.
Alan voted against the proposals to increase university tuition fees so is clearly not afraid to stand up to and against the party machine.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Michael Moore – Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale
Michael is the current Secretary State for Scotland but his distaste for the coalition was made known via a secret recording of comments regarding the tuition fees vote. Apparently “Tuition fees … [are] the biggest, ugliest, most horrific thing in all of this” so there is scope for further discord and not respecting party decisions. There is also currently a whispering campaign against Michael as a result of his intransigence in moving towards a more federal UK, which is Lib Dem policy.
Michael holds only a 1,489 majority over Labour from 2010.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Sir Robert Smith – West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Robert holds a 3,684 majority over the Conservatives in that rarest of constituencies in Scotland, a Tory/Lib Dem two horse race. I don’t know if the MP is an orange-booker or sympathetic to the blues but Robert’s grandfather served this constituency as a Tory and he is a ‘3rd baronet’ which, I don’t know what it means, but it sounds more Tory than Lib Dem to me.
Swinging allegiance just before 2015 from orange to blue would virtually cement re-election, if the local Tory group allowed it of course.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Jo Swinson
Jo fought off a strong challenge from Labour in 2010 to hold onto her East Dunbartonshire constituency by 2,184 votes. The Conservatives and SNP were a distant 3rd and 4th. Despite the SNP taking near-equivalent Strathkelvin and Bearsden in 2011 from Labour’s David Whitton, this should be a Labour/Lib Deb two-horse race in 2015.
It is early days but given that the Lib Dems slumped to 4th place in 2011 with only 7.7% of the vote, one has to assume that the writing is already on the wall for Jo Swinson’s tenure as an MP. Crossing the floor to Labour is probably the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ Deputy Leader’s best chance of re-election.
Likelihood of defection? Low

Menzies Campbell/Charlie Kennedy/Malcolm Bruce
Rightly or wrongly, I view this trio as a mini-group of MPs within MPs. Similar political views and similar length of experience, they have invested much of their career to the benefit of the Lib Dems but these senior politicians are conspicuous by the their silence and, if one was to take drastic action, one has to assume all three of them would together. The age and stage of their careers probably means they’ll ride out this chapter of the Liberal Democrat story without objecting too radically.
Likelihood of defection? Low

John Thurso – Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Probably enjoys a strong enough personal vote to be too overly-concerned with not winning at elections any more. May also be considering retirement in 2015 having served three parliamentary terms since 2001.
Likelihood of defection? Low

Alistair Carmichael – Orkney & Shetlands
The islands have been Lib Dem held since the 1950s and Alistair was President of the Liberal Club way back when he was a student.
Likelihood of defection? Non-existent

Danny Alexander – Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Danny holds a 8,765 majority over Labour from the 2010 election which is a winnable margin looking ahead to 2015, even with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury being the poster boy for the Lib Dems, and flak jacket for the Tories, when it comes to cuts. Danny seems to embody the rural, pragmatic, intellectual wing(s) of the Liberal Democrats and it is difficult to picture the man with any other rosette on his lapel.
Likelihood of defection? Non-existent

What does progress look like for Ed Miliband?

May 21

Posted by Jeff in Parties | 5 Comments

I never did manage to watch Ed Miliband’s Progress speech this afternoon, as I had hoped; the draw of lazing in baking sunshine with a bottle of Vin Blanc proved too strong. Who’d have thunk it.

However, from my hayfever-encased and sunburn-crusted lack of a vantage point, I can at least pontificate over what i would like to have heard.

We’ve had a lot of discussion here at Better Nation recently over what Scottish Labour’s next steps should be, a situation that I am personally delighted with as Labour’s online presence north of the border was sadly minimal prior to May 5th so it’s nice to have a political balance on the still SNP-heavy MacBlogosphere (and if any Scottish Tories wish to write a guest post, get in touch!)

However, the next steps for Labour in Scotland are probably markedly different to the next steps for Ed Miliband’s still fledgling tenure as Labour leader in London. Fighting cuts from a Westminster perspective is different to fighting them from a Holyrood one.

For me, I guess I joined the Green party in England & Wales partly out of default because, for whatever reason, the Tories and Lib Dems were never viable options, Labour lost its way over the past decade and the SNP in London is more of a ‘fan club’ for me as I believe political party branches should be relevant and linked to their local community. So, basically, I guess I am hoping that Ed Miliband can somehow make my support for the Greens redundant by beating or matching their policies and leveraging the relative size of Labour to tempt me into voting red while I’m living in London. No easy task but not impossible.

The main message that I listen out for is where Ed sits on the ‘Blue Labour’/’Old Labour’ divide. The rich are getting richer while the relative poor are losing jobs and struggling from increased inflation. It’s ok for me as an accountant where job demand always exceeds supply but the shrinking career opportunities for swathes of people is scary and this is against a backdrop of rich people never having had it so good.  That’s the UK’s problems in a nutshell and it’s not something that Scotland can do too much about with the powers that Holyrood currently has, and it’s not something that the Liberal Democrats can reasonably argue against too vocally while shackled to the tax-cutting Tories.

So all progressive, redistributive eyes are on Red Ed then and a good place to start is the startling fact that the Sunday Times Rich List saw their collective worth increase by 18% in the past year. Given current economic conditions, this is depressing and shocking news. For me (and I am 30 pages into The Ragged Trousered Philanthropist so I know what I’m talking about!), traditional Labour values rule that a person’s job is not really ‘their’ job, a person’s house is not really ‘their’ house and a person’s wealth should also not really be theirs. We are all collectively trying to make it from the cradle to the grave in as healthy, as safe, as comfortable and as happy a state as we can and yet, as advanced a society as we often consider the UK to be, we still have a long, long way to go. It’s Labour’s job, duty even, to usher us all along that path as best it can and there are plenty of areas to start with.

Energy companies making multi-billion pound profits while old people can’t afford to heat their homes, supermarkets making multi-billion pound profits while food prices move dangerously higher every year and oil companies making multi-billion pound profits while the planet continues to change its climate and wreak havoc accordingly. A strong message that companies and individuals alike have to pay their fair share in order to move the UK closer to the Socialist solution is Ed Miliband’s job in my book.

A togetherness and fundamental of equality that transcends Westminster, Holyrood, private/public sector, rich/poor and national borders is the bare minimum benchmark for the Labour leader that I can see and fleshing that out with detailed policy would be great to hear. Higher income taxes for the relative rich and super-rich, a Project Merlin solution with teeth, a reversal of the various tax cutting presented as Osborne’s generous gift to companies, equal and extensive parental leave, a more benevolent foreign policy and bog standard green insulation rollout is on my wishlist, so I look forward to hearing Ed’s (seemingly very well received) speech later.

Anyway, back to the sun and the plonk. It’s not all bad in the UK after all….