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#SP11 – Only the Lib Dems can disappear here

Apr 26

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood, Parties | 87 Comments

Waking up the next morning it is easy to feel embarrassed, stupid and remorseful. Those easy words, those seductive plays; of course they were rehearsed and aimed to trick you but it’s easy to be taken in at the time, get swept away in the moment; thinking that this one’s different, this one is for the long term.

And yet there you are on that cold day, sharp shivers that cut to the bone, more from the icy memories than the cool Spring temperature. A walk of shame that can last four or five years before the wrong can be righted.

Yes, voting Lib Dem can leave even the most battle-hardened with scars for life. We all experiment and do stupid things when we’re young I suppose.

Memories of elections are starting to merge into one for me but I think it was 2005 when it was my turn to dip my electoral finger into the appealing icing offered by the Lib Dems, without considering what, if any, substance there was in the cake underneath. Perhaps that is why I am being so hard on the Lib Dems during this campaign, some latent anger at having been duped by a party that I don’t really associate myself with, or perhaps it is the 2010 deal with the Tories, or perhaps it is the disappointing sight of train fares rocketing and wi-fi being stripped out of East Coast while domestic air travel remains King or perhaps it is just the continued duplicity that seems prevalent within the Scottish Lib Dems, even today.

Take their policy to keep policing local. A fine policy and an important argument against the likely move to combine policing into one cost-saving merged force. I personally have no strong feeling either way; I recognise the financial benefits of shared resources but I also recognise the benefits of having a localised service that can adapt more easily to local factors. However, as much as I understand that the Lib Dems don’t have many policy strings to their bow right now, it is just downright deceitful to assert time and time and time again that they are the only party that is fighting to keep policing local. From Orkney through Aberdeen to Perth, and no doubt beyond, this lie, for there is no other word, is being propagated.

How can we sympathise with Chris Huhne attacking the No to AV campaign for spreading lies when his party is doing the same thing up here in Scotland? I can understand why the Lib Dems would want to wish the Green party away but it doesn’t seem to be working as the (hitherto) 5th party of the Parliament is finally gaining some traction in the polls.

Another Scottish Lib Dem bugbear of mine is equality. The party likes to paint itself as at the forefront of any fight against discrimination and, again, there is plenty of merit in their words and deeds. However, they let themselves down by allowing that moral high ground go to their heads. Take Caron’s rationale for not signing this 1,100-strong petition to include Patrick Harvie in the leader debates:

“I actually think that rather than push for Patrick, I’d have been a lot more engaged with the idea if they’d decided against putting another middle aged bloke in a suit on that stage, where, frankly, there are already enough of them, and gone for a woman who has equal authority and status in their party.”

Given that one of those ‘middle aged blokes in a suit’ is Tavish Scott, I thought this was a pretty shaky premise to build an argument on but Caron went on:

“It just screams of blokes in a huddle again, not looking at the bigger picture. They want Patrick in the debates to give them more balance, but they’ve missed the chance to show that they are aware of and act on other sorts of imbalance.”

That’s fine, I don’t get to dictate what people sign or don’t sign, just as Caron doesn’t get to dictate which co-leader the Green Party puts up to argue for its policies, but I take exception at Caron’s complaints of ‘blokes in a huddle’ when the Scottish Lib Dem MSP group for 2007-2011 consisted of 2 women and 14 men. The worst gender imbalance of any of the so-called ‘main parties’.

So, are they set to improve on this lamentable position given that they so often claim to be the party of equality and fairness? Well, no actually. The number of women in the Lib Dem MSP group is expected to decrease from 2 to 1.

The most recent poll suggests that the Lib Dem group will reduce to eight:

Liam McArthur – Orkney
Tavish Scott – Shetland
Alison McInnes – North East
Mike Rumbles – North East
Mike Pringle – Lothians
Willie Rennie – MS&F
Jim Hume – South
Ross Finnie – West

How’s that for “missing the chance to show that they are aware of and act on other sorts of imbalance”?

It is not only a squeeze on policy that has led to desperation for the Lib Dems, it is the result of the 2007 election. You may have noticed a decline in the number of leaflets stating that ‘only the Lib Dems can win here’. That is because the Lib Dems are sitting in second place in only 5 of the 73 constituencies, and 4 of those seats are SNP-held which should remain the case after May 5th. The Lib Dems are struggling to win seats with an honest vote or a tactical vote which perhaps explains, though does not forgive, the behaviour discussed above.

I have no similar problems with the Conservatives or Labour, parties that I also rarely associate myself with. At least they know their place in the political debate and know what it is they are standing for. I really would question whether that is the case for the Scottish Lib Dems and would question whether Scotland needs them at all. What does Tavish’s party bring that the more grounded, robust left of centre parties of SNP, Labour and Greens not already offer? Are the Scottish Lib Dems just becoming a distraction?

This awkward prospect of letting a political party simply slip away is strengthened by the main news item on the Scottish Lib Dem website. Desperately and unashamedly using the inaccurate headline: “Only Lib Dems have solutions for Scotland”, the article talks about volunteering and scouting. Worthy, fuzzy, well-meaning but ultimately ancillary to the core needs of Scotland. For how long can Tavish Scott scurry around the fringes of the debate, looking for a demographic to lead and expect to remain at the top table? What is left of the party when the easy patter, the quick-win protest vote and the dodgy bar chart is no longer an option?

The only sensible way to deal with the smooth-talking Lib Dems? Just say No.

There now follows a poll warning

Apr 25

Posted by The Burd in Elections, Holyrood, Parties | 27 Comments

With three polls in the last week from  IPSOS-Mori, YouGov and Scottish Progressive Opinion, we anoraks have had plenty to chew over.  They all employ quite different methodologies, so comparing them is a bit like trying to find points of similarity between broccoli, carrots and onions.

But they all indicate a significant shift in support towards the SNP.  Without any doubt, the electoral sands are shifting in Salmond’s favour, though we should be wary of hailing the victors based on what is being reported, for there are some fine details that are worthy of consideration.

First, the figures are being massaged a little at the edges.  This pre-occupation with dismissing don’t knows and uncertains to vote has a bearing on the findings.  The IPSOS-Mori poll gives the most detail with which to examine this phenomenon.  The headlines gave the SNP an 11 point lead on the constituency vote (45% to Labour’s 34%) and put them head by 10 points on the regional vote (42 to 32).  But that finding is based on participants’ voting intention and which party they are inclined to support and how certain they are to vote.  Which means rather than simply being a pure who will you vote for result, it has other things factored in as well.

One immediate consequence of doing this is to lower the sample size from the 1002 people polled to 681 respondents (or 667 if the weighted figure is used and we want to confuse matters further).  Thus, the margin for error increases on a lower number and moreover, it is universally accepted that you need a sample of 1000 to make a survey fully representative.

If we include all participants, the sample size goes back up and the figures shift slightly.  On the constituency vote it now looks like SNP on 43 and Labour on 34, a margin of 9 per cent, and on the regional vote, it is 40 to 32, a difference of 8 points.  See below for how this might impact on seats in Holyrood.

The sample then drops dramatically for the question on which party people are inclined to support.  Looking only at the findings for the constituency vote – I’m trying to simplify this, honest – we see that only 294 responded to the question and of that number, 88 were undecided or didn’t know and 73 refused to answer.  This means that only 133 people gave a substantive response, yet this finding was applied to the whole sample to come up with the headline finding ie SNP on an 11 point lead.

So what happens if we take out all the extraneous stuff and simply ask all people whom they intend to vote for?  We get a very different result.  On the constituency vote, the SNP is on 29%, Labour on 20%, Tories on 7%, Lib Dems om 6% and the don’t knows are on 23%.  For the list, it’s 28% SNP, 21% Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems on 7%, Greens on 4% and the don’t knows on 18%.

It is still a commanding lead for the SNP but suddenly, the large numbers of don’t knows – as also found by Scottish Progressive Opinion - become more relevant.

The adjustments for certainty to vote are much more subtle in YouGov’s poll findings but it is not clear how many people fall out of the sample because that detail is not given.  However, the vagaries of the electoral system mean that even a percentage point of difference – Labour is on 32% when the findings are adjusted compared to 33% when they are not – results in Labour gaining another couple of seats when those findings are entered into ScotlandVotes predictor.

It is also worth noting that YouGov’s sample size has increased considerably.  In March’s poll, it was 1025; last week’s Scotland on Sunday poll was based on a sample of 1135 adults;  and this week’s sample was 1332.  It should make for a more accurate picture but there is still considerable weighting being applied, one presumes on the basis of Westminster voting record rather than previous Scottish Parliament vote share.

The general point holds true: every time the raw data is poked around with, no matter how stringently rules are adhered to, there is a risk of contamination and affecting the findings.

And every time don’t knows are airbrushed out of the equation, the findings are being skewed somewhat.  Some of these will be genuinely unsure voters who will make up their minds at the last minute, some as late as when they reach the polling booth;  others will actually be won’t says ie they know how they are going to vote but they won’t share it;  others can now be considered as won’t votes.  At this late stage of the campaign, if people have not made their minds up, often they simply will not bother to vote at all.

So while the large numbers of undecideds might still give the Labour party a glimmer of hope, their potential for causing a swing back is diminishing day by day.  Indeed, some will simply make for the winners’ bandwagon which is more good news for the SNP.

Finally, a percentage poll lead does not translate into a gain by that margin.  A ten point poll lead translates into a much smaller swing which means most Labour MSPs will escape, albeit with their majorities scythed.  The SNP’s potential gains are just as likely to come from the Tories and the Liberal Democrats but in all cases, local factors and incumbency come into play.  On the face of it, Ayr and Galloway and West Dumfries should fall but both have longstanding, respected Conservative MSPs.  Moreover, both Tavish Scott and Iain Gray are unlikely to lose their seats and Kevin Stewart in Aberdeen Central, as depute leader of a council forced to make horrendous cuts to balance the books, might find it harder to shift an incumbent MSP than all the polls suggest.

It all adds up to a great big headache and a couple of truisms:  all to play for and the only poll that counts is the real one on 5 May.

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Greens launch manifesto

Apr 19

Posted by Jeff in Elections, Parties | 20 Comments

The Greens have launched their manifesto today, competing manfully for media space alongside the other big #sp11 news today – that of the Sun’s backing for the SNP. It is a shame to see the launch as the 5th biggest story in Scotland today (The Sun/SNP endorsement is 2nd). Did the Nats deliberately stymie the Green launch by having both announcements on the same day? Let’s be honest, touché if so. All’s fair in love, war and election campaigns.

So, what are we being offered from the Greens then? Well, quite a lot actually:

– a Land Value Tax (as previously discussed several times on this blog so no need to rehash)
– scrap the additional Forth Road Bridge and Aberdeen bypass, saving £1.8bn for public spending
– 0.5p added to the Scottish Variable Rate from 2013, raising £200m+ a year
– A stronger budget focus on transport, affordable housing, free education and an insulation programme
– Commitment to large scale ecosystem restoration projects

It is the detail of the tartan tax policy that has really floated by wave turbine though. Someone earning £20k a year will pay £1.20/week more in income tax, someone earning £45k a year will pay £3.60/week more. Potentially provocative, yes, but also proactive and progressive. There can be no easy solutions when you’re budget is set to be slashed by 12.5%, even if other parties seem to think there is.

No-one wants to pay more tax, particularly when, as before, there is no figure applied to that warning and the imagination is free to picture cash slipping away. However, we now have a figure to focus on and £1.20 – £3.60 per week is about the equivalent of a pint. Would you buy a pint for the unemployed? For the poverty-stricken? For the students? For the senior citizens? The upsides arguably indirectly extend to lower crime, better health and higher education standards too. I don’t know how we can shirk our duty not to do this.

We are after all already missing important opportunities. Tesco has just announced multi-billion quarterly profits (the shopping giant makes £10m profit a day) but the Scottish Parliament (Lab/LD/Con) still wimped out of making such large businesses contribute a little bit more to the tax intake. The debate over tuition fees has been miserably disingenuous; the average fees in England are not at around £8,700 but Scottish parties are still claiming that the funding shortfall will be £90m a year (a figure based on average English fees at ~£7,000).

We aren’t really any further forward with properly insulating our homes either, an investment that would save families money through power bills which, in turn, frees up money for the family purse and Council Tax rises etc. The Greens had a substantial budget proposal on the table a couple of years ago but politics got in the way once again and the SNP rebuffed the offer. Claim and counter-claim ensued but that doesn’t change the fact that it would take 200 years to insulate the nation. Not good enough. How can we pass up win-win-win opportunities like this? There must be a way, a political will to get this done. Indeed, the big issue of this election so far is the Council Tax freeze but what would save people more money, better insulation or no rises in Council Tax? Worth exploring I reckon.

The use of the SvR is the big one for me though and, those who can pay, paying a bit more those who can’t. It’s not a big sacrifice to make and it starts way off in 2013 (assuming the coalition follows through with its intention of more, deeper cuts). I am glad that one of the political parties had the guts to put this revenue-raising option to the people, it is a policy that goes right to the heart of the kind of nation that I certainly want Scotland to be more like so let’s see how Scots take to it.

Oh, and the Greens are in favour of independence too.

Election round up – follow the leader

Apr 16

Posted by The Burd in Elections, Holyrood, Parties | 8 Comments

Four weeks down, three to go.  There is light at the end of the tunnel, or at least polling booth.

A good way to get a sense of what seats the parties are targeting and how the campaigns are going is by playing follow the leader.  Anyone who remembers the 2007 election might recall that Alex Salmond spent rather a lot of time campaigning in Stirling, Alloa, Kilmarnock, Glenrothes and even the Western Isles.  That’s because the SNP’s canvass returns were telling them that these seats were shifting.  And while SNP wins came as a surprise to many, reading the leadership travel runes in the campaign definitely gave signs of real hope.

So where have the four main party leaders (and other leading party figures) been on their travels this week and can we glean anything meaningful from their journeys?

Since last Saturday, SNP leading lights have visited Renfrewshire, Glasgow Southside, Dundee, North East Fife, Glasgow again, Stirling and er, Liverpool.

Labour has been to Edinburgh, East Kilbride, Stirling, Ochil, Edinburgh Eastern, Aberdeen and Dunfermline.

The Conservatives have visited Falkirk, Perth, Cunninghame North, East Lothian, Edinburgh and Ayr, while the Liberal Democrats have been to Glasgow, Argyll and Bute, Midlothian South, Aberdeenshire East, Fife and Midlothian South (again).

I do hope they are all choosing to offset their carbon emissions….

These are probably not all the destinations covered.  No doubt Ed Miliband and Iain Gray called in at Dundee on the way from Aberdeen to Dunfermline today.  And the SNP leader’s trip to Renfrewshire probably shoehorned in as many of the seats in that area as possible.

But overall, it seems that Labour and the SNP are already targeting in terms of expending leadership energy and giving a boost to local campaigns.  Both appear to be trying to shore up marginals they hold, such as the SNP’s Dundee seats and Labour’s Aberdeen Central.  But their voter identification data would appear to indicate that seats like Stirling and Edinburgh Eastern are currently on a knife edge. 

Interestingly, the SNP reckons it is gaining more of the soft Lib Dem vote, hence the parachute into North East Fife.  The burdz not sure if this isn’t just a bit of mischief making, given that it hasn’t yet featured on the Lib Dem leadership’s radar.  Time will tell.  If we see Salmond in seats like Caithness, Aberdeen South and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch then the Lib Dems can really start worrying.

At the moment, they seem determined to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Midlothian South in a bid to keep Jeremy Purvis at Holyrood.  In fact, if  Tavish spends any more time here, he might just qualify for a vote himself.   They do not seem to have written off Dunfermline West just yet and the amount of focus on Argyll and Bute suggests they think they have a chance of retaking this seat.

As for the Conservatives, it is hard to see what strategy is being deployed, other than keeping Annabel busy.  Falkirk?  Cunninghame North?  Nope, can’t see the point at all.  Though spending time in East Lothian and giving Derek Brownlee plenty of media airtime suggests they are worried about him retaining a seat through the South of Scotland list (as all we experts have already predicted!)

Despite the campaign being half way through and the very tight position at the top of the polls for the SNP and Labour, it is hard to discern a clear pattern.  Expect their focus to narrow in the remaining three weeks to the absolutely key marginals.  Watch carefully and as with 2007, by following the leader all the way to the finish line, you might just be able to spot which candidates have been abandoned as lost causes, which seats might spring a surprise result, and ultimately, who is going to win the election.

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The Scottish Liberal Democrat betrayal

Mar 28

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood, Parties | 31 Comments

The traditional tale goes that there is only one lake in all of Scotland, that of Lake of Menteith. The body of water was supposedly denied the more Scottish title ‘loch’ as a result of John Menteith’s betrayal of William Wallace, handing over the Scottish leader to be hung, drawn and quartered by the English.

It is a fine story, often repeated in pubs up and down Scotland, but there is infact several lakes in Scotland and ‘Lake of Menteith’ was only named so in the 19th century, long after William Wallace breathed his last desperate gasp of air.

The lesson remains that one should betray Scots at their peril and through this historic prism it is perhaps wise to view the plight of the Lib Dems, who look set to be hung, drawn and quartered at the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections.

Recent polling has had the Lib Dem voteshare at 12%, 11%, 10% and even in one instance 4%, figures that will significantly decrease the Lib Dem MSPs who decide to remain as candidates up to May 5th.

Clearly it will be a very difficult night for Tavish Scott, but it is the leadership ratings that are so eye-poppingly interesting. Prime Minister David Cameron has a leadership rating of -39%; for Nick Clegg that score is -58% with 75% of Scots disapproving of his performance and only 17% approving.

There’s a good reason why Clegg’s approval rating is significantly less that of the Prime Minister’s. As much as Scotland may not like it, we are getting what we expect from the Conservatives but have been let down, betrayed even, by the Liberal Democrats and Nick Clegg has been the face of that betrayal.

The risk for Scotland is that we end up with two political parties north of the border that are so toxic that no other party will do business with them, a situation that would leave coalition politics only possible between Labour, SNP, Greens and Independents. That’s a rather shallow pool to pull ideas from, particularly when the largest two parties can barely agree on anything at all.

A further potential result of prolonged low poll ratings for Nick Clegg is that the Scottish Liberal Democrats, for so long champions of a federal structure, will break further away from their UK counterparts. The ramifications for Scotland of such a move could be considerable. There have been several calls from within the Scottish Lib Dems for a referendum on independence and renewed calls with a renewed vigour from the party could be the quickest way to show that they are not Tory poodles, north of the border at least. Being seen to disobey Nick Clegg who is on -75% approval rating might not be the worst idea in the world either.

The pressing problem for the Lib Dems remains what their next big idea will be. All political parties have a right to exist in a proper democracy but the very essence of the Scottish Liberal Democrats deserves particular scrutiny given the lack of a natural shared objective. Even the bonding philosophy of ‘Only we Can Win Here’ is in danger given how many 3rd and 4th place spots the Lib Dems hold. What will the bar charts say we can only wonder.

What policies are being offered by Tavish’s party that are not readily available elsewhere? Free tuition? SNP and Labour have it covered. Environment? That’s the Greens’ domain. Health and education? There’s nothing that marks them out as special. That leaves a genuinely Local Income Tax which is surely an insufficient offering for a general election campaign.

In any election contest there is typically a main hero and a primary villain. For so long Tony Blair was the key electoral asset and whichever Tory leader was challenging Labour at the time the villain; at Holyrood last time around it was Salmond the hero and a jaded Labour party the villain; in last year’s election it was Clegg the hero and Westminster politics in general the villain. This time, a dramatic change of fortunes sees Clegg as the villain front-runner and a hero yet to step forward.

Scotland appears to be getting ready to send Clegg home to think again and, while we may not name a lake after him, don’t be surprised if you see Bog Clegg the next time that you venture into the Scottish wilderness.