Carry on Tramming

In my job I have to deal with budgets, forecasts and ‘comparisons to actuals’ a lot of the time and, much like everywhere I imagine, the income forecasts get lowballed and the costs get highballed in order that, as the year progresses, the number of high fives can only increase as people beat target after target. It’s a bit like saying 40% is a pass at schools and universities, an exercise in making people feel good rather than actually doing anything valuable.

For the trams project, someone must have got things the wrong way around. The costs appear to have been lowballed and the number of high fives have dropped to zero (although the high salaries will no doubt be continuing, a genuine disgrace).

One probably doesn’t have to explain sunk costs, that what is spent is spent, and that a decision as to what is next for this project has to be taken in the here and now. The temptation to hanker back to the days when trams were a glint in a politician’s eye and the Number 22 ruled Leith Walk should be resisted.

The Scotsman has a great article exploring the various options open to Edinburgh but, for me, at the end of the day, a set of useless tracks cannot remain on Princes St, an empty hull of a tram depot cannot sit at Haymarket and a pockmarked Leith cannot be left with the pain of reduced business without the gain of a product at the end of it. What a bitter blow to Scotland’s Capital’s confidence to have embarked on such an ambitious project only to crawl back in on itself and say it was all too hard, all too difficult. How could we look at those ill-conceived, ill-advised unused tracks without thinking ‘We’re a bit rubbish really’?

The original reasons for these trams need to be focused on too. With parts of Edinburgh dangerously close to breaching the EU’s CO2 levels, the cost of fuel only set to increase and commuters demonstrably more likely to use trams than buses, the tram can be a golden bullet solution for several problems and that prize remains in place, albeit on a higher and higher plinth. Given that, the Scottish Government can no longer wash its hands of the whole affair, despite a pledge not to spend ‘not a penny more’ than the £500m it allocated in the last parliamentary term. The most attractive option does appear to be some sort of Tax Incremental Funding which the SNP Government would facilitate, if the desire to keep private sector involvement at bay holds firm.

So whether it’s a partial completion up to the top of Leith Walk or even just the Airport-Haymarket section, we need a finished product and, crucially, one that has a clear option to extend out to The Shore and Granton in the not-too-distant future. It’ll be even more difficult than before but, with Scotland’s reputation and confidence on the line, Edinburgh Council needs to rewrite its forecasts, finish the job and I am certain that high fives will be coming down the track as a direct result.

Ideology trumps sovereignty? (part 2)

The first part of Stuart‘s lengthy tome had over 200 comments… which suggests there is an appetite for the second part… so here it is:

The first part of this post concluded by proffering another explanation for the sovereignty paradox (meaning in essence the desire to withdraw from the United Kingdom but then cede significant economic and legal powers to the European Union and ECHR) namely that the SNP’s raison d’être is less about independence per se than incompatible political ideologies as between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and as compared to England in particular. Earlier I asked what the difference was between last year’s Labour Scottish triumph at Westminster and this year’s SNP landslide in the Holyrood poll. Of course, apart from the parliament in question the most obvious response is the rightwards lurch in the context of UK politics as a whole.

Thus in a recent blog post (albeit of sufficient newsworthiness to be the subject of a Scotsman news article) SNP policy and strategy guru Stephen Noon suggests “there is a harshness to the UK government’s approach that goes against the grain of Scottish society”, compares Alex Salmond’s “Fair Society” with David Cameron’s “Big Society”, and concludes:

“This is a tale of two countries, of two very different visions of society and of the future. It reflects contrasting priorities. And that, ultimately, is what Home Rule – devolution and independence – is all about.”

Thus it’s not so much about independence, sovereignty and ‘forging our destiny’ than in effect gerrymandering the UK to afford primacy to Scotland’s dominant progressive, left-of-centre political philosophy, undiluted by being part of the UK. Therefore independence is less about nationalism and an end in itself than about conflicting ideologies.

Which would, of course, solve the sovereignty paradox, most obviously as regards the EU and the euro, with their supposed communitarian and progressive ethos (assuming a currency can be thus characterised!). And presumably the EU’s obvious shortcomings are ignored in favour of a rose-tinted perspective on the whole European project, in contrast to Westminster’s semi-detached relationship with the EU. Whereas the reality is arguably that in some respects the latter is even less attractive than the former as regards Scotland’s posited political zeitgeist. (To a lesser extent this kind of false dichotomy might also apply to the Holyrood/Westminster comparison).

For example, in many ways the EU is wedded to a fundamentalist market perspective, with free movement of workers within the area being one obvious facet of this ethos. Of course, this can be detrimental to the wages and conditions of indigenous workers and even drive them out of work, but the dominant Scottish mindset prefers to portray the situation in terms of things like cultural diversity, whereas the latter idealism in England seems to have given way to the less rosy former perspective, with the difference north and south of the border arguably being due merely to the differing scales of immigration rather than fundamentally different levels of tolerance and suchlike.

But solving the sovereignty paradox in terms of fundamental political differences – real or imagined – may seem like stating the obvious, so is there any mileage in viewing independence for Scotland as a principle in itself, an intrinsic good, or is it merely the means to an alternative ideological end?

Thus would those who are pro-independence but distinctly progressive/neo-socialist in political outlook be so keen on Scotland going it alone if that more obviously entailed a distinctly right-leaning political environment? By the same token, would a left-of-centre future in the UK generally make the continuation of the Union a more attractive proposition, particularly if an independent Scotland seemed likely to steer a political course to the right of this?

Of course, it’s self-evident that many supporters of the SNP – and, to an extent, independence – have come to the party after becoming disillusioned with new Labour – and, also to a degree, Unionism – thus a thesis of ideology trumping sovereignty is perhaps trying to over-elaborate on something self-evident and unremarkable.

On the other hand, there are plenty of people to the right-of-centre on the political spectrum who are pro-independence but are presumably resigned to the fact that a more sovereign Scotland would mean a political environment at odds with their own ideological stance, and indeed perhaps even more unpalatable than it is now. Hence their support for independence is presumably based on grounds other than humdrum political preferences.

Of course, solving the sovereignty conundrum in terms of political philosophy is only one aspect of looking at the problem. One related – but distinctly less attractive – way of looking at the same situation is in terms of Anglophobes on the one hand and Europhiles on the other.

And the ideological perspective itself reduces a complex and often contradictory dynamic to a simple scenario of left v right, or Westminster v Holyrood & Brussels in terms of institutions. But the stink over the Supreme Court itself reveals a pro-independence split between the more obvious rights-oriented psyche which supports the court’s intervention on the human rights convention’s right to a fair trial, as opposed to the undercurrent of a more illiberal stance from Mr Salmond and Mr MacAskill.

This is perhaps neatly encapsulated in a Scotsman article by Nationalist historian Michael Fry, who arguably displays little appreciation of the impact of ECHR jurisprudence on Scots law irrespective of the Supreme Court aspect – and instead highlights the dangers of British/English law to Scottish legal independence – but who in any case seems to demonstrates a distinctly anti-rights ethos:

“Till a year or two ago, there were no appeals in criminal proceedings beyond the High Court in Edinburgh. Today there is the possibility of or even the invitation to one for cases somehow involving human rights, and such an appeal will go to the Supreme Court in London. So a back door has been left ajar that could be hard to push to: there may be many cases in which clever and unscrupulous Scots defence lawyers will look for, indeed delight in finding, some aspect of human rights. The vaunted independence of the Scottish judiciary could in this area face the fatal risk of absorption into a British system of justice. And here, as in other areas, British may mean in reality English.”

By the same token, it may also be the case that the first minister and justice secretary are more concerned about the reputation of Scotland’s justice system than justice per se, thus their reaction to the Fraser and Cadder cases are perhaps less about the Supreme Court and the procedural and sovereignty aspects than how its decisions are perceived to reflect badly on the efficacy of an independent Scottish nation. Hence this all may represent a continuation of the misgivings regarding the Lockerbie bomber’s conviction, with al-Megrahi’s release on compassionate grounds reflecting more positively on the SNP’s desired perception of Scotland than the can of worms that an inquiry into the whole affair could represent, as dissenting Nationalist voices demonstrate.

Thus while the progressive Holyrood/Europe v illiberal Westminster analysis of necessity simplifies many competing interests and philosophies, from a personal perspective I would hazard that if born in 1994 rather than 1964 then I might find the idea of the SNP and Scottish independence significantly more attractive than is currently the case. However, experience (and all that!) has resulted in cynicism and disillusionment with idealistic/left wing politics, hence a scepticism regarding the independence project. Thus clearly a ‘fluid’ approach to sovereignty more related to personal philosophy than nationalistic principle and questions regarding precisely where political power should reside: Edinburgh, London, Brussels; who cares, as long as it’s good government.

Of course, I’m sure historians and political theorists can cite numerous examples of nationalist movements arising from or given impetus by ideological considerations. But when Stephen Noon chained himself to the Stone of Destiny back in 1992, perhaps he should have tattooed Labour’s clause IV on his forehead instead, or at least the contemporary equivalent encompassing the SNP’s vision of a “fair society”.


John Redwood dips his toe into the independence debate

For all that the constitution is one of David Cameron’s top priorities, it is odd that not many Conservative MPs seem overly willing to discuss it. Even John Redwood’s blog post this morning takes a distinctly, not to mention disappointingly, non-opinionated view of the matter. John is really just raising a few points up the flagpole to see in which way commenters salute them and, to be fair, a very decent debate followed in the 90+ comments.

So, in the absence of much else exercising my blogging brain these days, I thought I’d also take up the challenge:

1. Should the people of the rest of the UK have any say in the independence of Scotland?

Definitely not. This argument has flummoxed me for quite some time as it is often raised by otherwise sensible people. If England wishes to be independent from the UK, then it is for England to decide. It is the same for Wales, Northern Ireland and, yes, Scotland. Of course negotiations will have an impact on the rest of the UK and, had there been a need for two referendums (as Michael Moore recently suggested and I, more recently, backed him on), then the whole of the UK could arguably have a referendum on the matter but if, as seems very likely, the referendum comes down to a straight Yes/No before detailed negotiations begin, then it is a matter for Scots only to decide.

2. Should there be any financial consequences from Scotland gaining more independence to make her own decisions within the Union settlement?

Against the waves of vagueness that the good ship Independence battles through with each week that rolls on by, this one really is up and over the sides. What exactly the question is getting at we can but wonder.

I suspect there would be financial consequences to Scotland gaining more independence within the Union but, to second-guess what John is getting at, one would hope they wouldn’t be unnecessarily punitive. One does have to wonder if Scotland becoming more independent has subtle detriments. When Lord Green, the UK’s first Trade Minister, is touting for business across the globe on the country’s behalf, he may well have Gillingham in mind ahead of Glasgow, Aberystwyth ahead of Aberdeen and Southampton ahead of Selkirk. It is understandable that those working under the auspices of the Westminster Government don’t even have Scotland in the back of their mind when it comes to British concerns that, under our constitution, should still be fairly considered in a UK context as a whole.

So to answer John’s question, although there probably will be financial consequences for Scotland pulling away on its own, over and above Calman or fiscal autonomy, there shouldn’t be.

3. Should Scotland have more powers to raise her own taxation?

Absolutely. A Parliament that does not have powers to raise its own taxation will inevitably run into problems in terms of democratic accountability and responsible spending. For a long time I had regarded the Scottish Parliament as just another block of Westminster spending, like the NHS, Defra, welfare or what have you. However, I have slowly, too slowly, realised that this is inapplicable and the Scottish Parliament really is a special case when it comes to raising its own budget. There may end up being elected health chiefs, police chiefs and even headmasters in England and Wales before too long but there is still no direct comparison to be made to the Scottish Parliament.

The expense and investment that goes into the NHS, Defra, welfare etc are as a direct result of decisions and policies taken by a Government that has been democratically voted into place. Holyrood spending is dictated by a different party (or parties) to those that were voted into place in Scotland and this leads to problems as we are seeing now where Westminster policy is university fees and Holyrood policy is free tuition, Westminster policy is increased private sector involvement in the NHS and Holyrood policy is to keep health public. That divergence when spending limits are so inextricably linked between the Parliaments is an ultimately unworkable situation.

If a Conservative Government wants to end the supposed ‘grudge and grievance’ politics, then it needs to sever the link between right-of-centre Westminster decisions and left-of-centre Holyrood spending constraints. Indeed, this would end the regular ‘grudge and grievance’ that heads north, the supposed charge that Scotland subsidises the rest of the UK. Let’s put it to the test if both sides of the border feel that strongly about it.

4. Do you support the Union or do you think it is time for break-up as the SNP suggest?

Well, I’m shimmying onto the fence here. I’ll make sure I’m in Scotland for the vote and I am currently minded to vote Yes but, as has been pointed out on this blog before (predominantly by James), the lack of detail and blatant gamesmanship surrounding the SNP’s primary proposal may push me back into a No space as there may ultimately be too much to risk by going for it alone, as fun and as fulfilling an adventure it would be.

So that’s my fourpence worth. I guess these four questions could form some sort of meme, not that I’m going to pick anyone out but feel free to answer John’s questions in the comments (or on your blogs). Maybe I should tag Mr Redwood MP himself since (1) he never answered his own questions and (2) he’s significantly closer to the decision-making than any of us here…!

What now for the Scottish Greens?

This time two months ago, Jeff, Malc and I were working ourselves into a lather with prediction-itis.  And getting most of it horribly wrong.  Meanwhile, James was otherwise engaged with proper politicking on the Scottish Greens’ election campaign.  The polls suggested that the Greens would take anything between 5 and 8 per cent of the regional vote:  a big break-through was beckoning, or at least a return to a 2003-sized Holyrood group.

Not that I care to crow – much – but this here burd trumped the Better Nation boys.  Three Green seats I think I said.

As it turned out, the Scottish Greens did well to return with two MSPs intact.  In the face of the SNP juggernaut, it alone managed to hold its vote at regional level and at least stand still in terms of parliamentary arithmetic.  I’m sure it was a huge disappointment to everyone in the Scottish Green Party and to many others but, putting it all in perspective, it wasn’t actually a bad result and it’s hard to see what else the party might have done to turn it into a great one.

But what do they now?  They have reached a fork in the electoral road – which route do they take?

There was much to admire in the Scottish Greens’ election campaign and manifesto, not least their dogged insistence on relatively unfashionable leftist economic policies.  But the outstanding memory I have is how Alex Salmond and the SNP effectively out-greened them.  Sure, on the little stuff – on recycling, on community based issues, the Scottish Greens were solid and worthy.  But on the big stuff – the renewable vision thing, of how it could create a real Scottish economic identity, and jobs – real jobs – in the future, well, the SNP won hands down.

It marked the difference in the level of ambition between the two parties: one aspired to be the next government, the other contented itself with being the home for protest votes.

And the problem with being the erstwhile recipient of the protest vote is that it is fly-by-night.  It cannot be relied upon.  Given its relative youth in party years, this might suffice but it does not provide a solid springboard for increased membership or indeed, representation.

The Scottish Greens have to decide if they wish to become a serious electoral threat.  The right strategy and tactics can pay dividends, as Caroline Lucas and the Brighton Greens can testify.

To replicate their success, the Scottish Greens need to grow and broaden their appeal.  For starters, that means increasing the membership.  The current membership levels are more reminiscent of a club not a fully-fledged political party – with very little effort, the membership could be doubled or even trebled.

Appropriate targeting would encourage members of other parties to switch but also encourage currently non-aligned people to sign up.  And that means getting the demographics right – it’s friends for life the Greens want, not the fairweathered variety.

At the same time, a stronger activist base is required.  The Scottish Greens have a great opportunity to make considerable gains at the local government elections in a year’s time but only if they get candidates in place soon-ish and get out there and work.  In local media, on local issues and on local doorsteps.  There is definitely a gap in the market for a principled and oppositional party to fight hard on local community issues, to offer something different from the mainstream.

Success at this level does not require a national campaign;  instead, the Scottish Greens need to focus relentlessly on winnable wards and concentrate effort in particular councils.  Some high profile gains in certain councils could propel the party into a king-making role (if they want it) and would have much greater impact than a smattering of Green councillors across the board.  To achieve this will involve someone sitting down and reviewing the local scenes, doing the maths and applying the science.  Winning hearts sometimes involves targeting minds.

But before tackling any of this, the Scottish Greens need to think about their party’s personality.  It is currently dominated by their ace in the pack, their co-convenor, Patrick Harvie MSP.  If the SNP can be accused of being a one-man band, what can be said about the Scottish Greens?  Moreover, the party is more of a movement, fluid and free-flowing, yet electoral success requires discipline, structure and format.  Not something that will sit easy with many of its members.

Finally, there is the adherence to principle and refusal to bend to pragmatism.  A lofty, highly laudable position to adapt but realistic?  How attractive is it to the majority of people who try to be Green but do not always succeed? Who aspire to Greendom but know that practicalities often get in the way?  How Green do you have to be to “be a Green”?  At times, it can seem as though rather than engage with the reality of politics, the party is keener on taking an outer stance and sticking to it, no matter what.  At times, it can smack of posture politics.  A refusal to compromise can be seen as dogmatic and downright pig-headed, turning as many voters off as on.

The Scottish Greens can continue on the path they have chosen but that might well mean being resigned to staying as they are:  a small parliamentary presence on the fringes, dependent on a protest vote, that some elections might not swing their way.  But if they wish to move forward, and truly become an electoral force to be reckoned with, they have some thinking to do.  Some shifts, uncomfortable though these might be in the short term, might be required for long term gain.

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A gap in Scottish blogging

David TorranceAs Scotland prepares for the SNP to pop the question, whatever it turns out to be, the country deserves the broadest and most vibrant discussion possible about all the issues. The debate will take place in the media, in pubs and living rooms, and in the blogs and on social media (and, I almost forgot, in Parliament), but there’s currently quite a substantial gap. Specifically, there isn’t much level-headed argumentation out there for any form of the Yoonyon.

With that in mind, please welcome Mugwump, the new blog from freelance journalist David Torrance. Knowing our readership (hello all! waves fondly!) many of you won’t agree with him. But personally I think we need a debate where the best case is made by both sides. And where all the awkward questions are asked. His opening post is certainly that – are the SNP really planning to offer independence-lite, just an “ever-looser Union”? He’s tracked down some straws in the wind that suggest that might be the plan.

And don’t listen to the cynics who suggest that the two next letters in the pic to the left are R and Y. For one thing, I expect plenty of critique of the Tories. And for another, I suspect he’s actually a federalist.