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The Scottish Liberal Democrat betrayal

Mar 28

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood, Parties | 31 Comments

The traditional tale goes that there is only one lake in all of Scotland, that of Lake of Menteith. The body of water was supposedly denied the more Scottish title ‘loch’ as a result of John Menteith’s betrayal of William Wallace, handing over the Scottish leader to be hung, drawn and quartered by the English.

It is a fine story, often repeated in pubs up and down Scotland, but there is infact several lakes in Scotland and ‘Lake of Menteith’ was only named so in the 19th century, long after William Wallace breathed his last desperate gasp of air.

The lesson remains that one should betray Scots at their peril and through this historic prism it is perhaps wise to view the plight of the Lib Dems, who look set to be hung, drawn and quartered at the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections.

Recent polling has had the Lib Dem voteshare at 12%, 11%, 10% and even in one instance 4%, figures that will significantly decrease the Lib Dem MSPs who decide to remain as candidates up to May 5th.

Clearly it will be a very difficult night for Tavish Scott, but it is the leadership ratings that are so eye-poppingly interesting. Prime Minister David Cameron has a leadership rating of -39%; for Nick Clegg that score is -58% with 75% of Scots disapproving of his performance and only 17% approving.

There’s a good reason why Clegg’s approval rating is significantly less that of the Prime Minister’s. As much as Scotland may not like it, we are getting what we expect from the Conservatives but have been let down, betrayed even, by the Liberal Democrats and Nick Clegg has been the face of that betrayal.

The risk for Scotland is that we end up with two political parties north of the border that are so toxic that no other party will do business with them, a situation that would leave coalition politics only possible between Labour, SNP, Greens and Independents. That’s a rather shallow pool to pull ideas from, particularly when the largest two parties can barely agree on anything at all.

A further potential result of prolonged low poll ratings for Nick Clegg is that the Scottish Liberal Democrats, for so long champions of a federal structure, will break further away from their UK counterparts. The ramifications for Scotland of such a move could be considerable. There have been several calls from within the Scottish Lib Dems for a referendum on independence and renewed calls with a renewed vigour from the party could be the quickest way to show that they are not Tory poodles, north of the border at least. Being seen to disobey Nick Clegg who is on -75% approval rating might not be the worst idea in the world either.

The pressing problem for the Lib Dems remains what their next big idea will be. All political parties have a right to exist in a proper democracy but the very essence of the Scottish Liberal Democrats deserves particular scrutiny given the lack of a natural shared objective. Even the bonding philosophy of ‘Only we Can Win Here’ is in danger given how many 3rd and 4th place spots the Lib Dems hold. What will the bar charts say we can only wonder.

What policies are being offered by Tavish’s party that are not readily available elsewhere? Free tuition? SNP and Labour have it covered. Environment? That’s the Greens’ domain. Health and education? There’s nothing that marks them out as special. That leaves a genuinely Local Income Tax which is surely an insufficient offering for a general election campaign.

In any election contest there is typically a main hero and a primary villain. For so long Tony Blair was the key electoral asset and whichever Tory leader was challenging Labour at the time the villain; at Holyrood last time around it was Salmond the hero and a jaded Labour party the villain; in last year’s election it was Clegg the hero and Westminster politics in general the villain. This time, a dramatic change of fortunes sees Clegg as the villain front-runner and a hero yet to step forward.

Scotland appears to be getting ready to send Clegg home to think again and, while we may not name a lake after him, don’t be surprised if you see Bog Clegg the next time that you venture into the Scottish wilderness.

Who wins from Hugh O’Donnell leaving Lib Dems

Mar 26

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood | 4 Comments

It must take a lot of thought before one decides to leave a political party, especially when you are the top of the rankings list for a region that your party probably won’t win a First Past the Post constituency in. However, Hugh O’donnell has done just that, abandoning the Lib Dems 6 weeks shy of the election date. The party has not been slow to completely cut the cord, removing his page on the party website and saying that he “won’t be missed”.

So will this affect the result in Central? Well, the Lib Dems were always going to struggle to win a seat and the public don’t tend to vote for parties that are falling apart so one can only assume that this will have an impact.

Labour cannot expect to win any list MSPs here and the Tories won’t be looking beyond the token Tory they win in this part of Scotland each time. Consequently, it will be the SNP and the Greens (or perhaps SCCUP/Socialists) that shall be scrapping for Hugh O’Donnell’s generous spoils.

On current polling one has to suspect that this move points towards 6 SNP MSPs on the Central list. A first for Holyrood and a potential game-changer once all votes are counted?

Nats might be queuing up to buy Hugh a drink on May 6th.

Cheering on the blues but undecided on the TUC reds

Mar 26

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood | 20 Comments

One of the advantages to living in London is that when something really big happens in this country, it tends to be happening on my doorstep. Take today’s big event – a mass of screaming students, a police presence, unions travelling from afar to the big City because of the blues and lots of kettles on the go. It’s not every day I get to attend the Oxford vs Cambridge Boat Race so it’ll nice to toddle along to it this afternoon.

There is, of course, another large event taking place in London today, the TUC’s national demonstration, this one focused on the coalition cuts and calls for an alternative.

While I sense there exists strong and convincing arguments against the speed of the cuts that the coalition is bringing in, it is difficult to really believe in them when the main Opposition struggles to fall behind a distinct narrative that it not only believes in but is also a clear alternative to what the Government is trying to do. Portugal being the latest country to require a bailout should be a timely reminder that the UK has it all to lose if it gets this wrong and it is difficult to argue against balancing the books as quickly as possible. “Moral indignation and political failure” as The Times had it yesterday, ‘student politics’ as many of the rest of Ed Miliband’s detractors call it. I’m inclined to agree.

Perhaps there is time for a hero of the left to rise above the fray and show real leadership against the Osborne’s and Clegg’s of this country. Until then, protests will just seem like a lot of noise over not very much.

I’ll be at the boat race rather than the marches in body today, I can’t say I’ll really be at either in spirit.

#SP11 Region Watch – Mid-Scotland & Fife

Mar 24

Posted by Malc in Holyrood | 55 Comments

Mid Scotland & Fife 2007-11 constituency colours

The fourth in our series of examinations of the Scottish Parliament regions, this time I’m in the hotseat and looking at Mid-Scotland and Fife.  Previous posts on Highlands & Islands, North-East Scotland and the Lothians have all been vigorously debated, so I suspect I’ll ruffle a few feathers again.  Here goes (constituencies first):

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane – Tight, very tight.  The profile of an SNP minister who holds the seat against the profile of a former Labour minister who notionally holds the seat.  I’ve been told the word “disgraced” is supposed to precede “former” in the latter’s case (there’s apparently a memo).  But we’re fairer than that here (no mud-slinging from us).  Nevertheless, the mud that has been previously slung, does stick a bit… and leads me to think that the SNP will cling on here… just about.  SNP hold (Keith Brown – returning).

Cowdenbeath – Likely comfortable.   We’re getting into “dyed in the wool” territory here, I imagine. Labour hold (Helen Eadie – returning).

Dunfermline – This is trickier.  Lib Dem held, but boundary changes plus the corresponding seat returned to Labour at Westminster.  I’m really not sure on this one – it probably depends on how much the national LD vote share holds up, but a notional majority of just 77 makes me think it unlikely they’ll hang on. Lab GAIN (Alex Rowley – new face).

Kirkcaldy – A notional majority of over 3,000, I can’t see this being anything other than a Lab hold (Marlyn Livingstone – returning).

Mid-Fife and Glenrothes – This is a seat where I thought the SNP incumbent might be in trouble, but statistically that isn’t the case.  Notionally, they have a majority of over 2,000.  However, the SNP do run the council, and there have been some tough decisions made (which perhaps influenced the outcome of the Glenrothes by-election).  So I expect it to be closer, but the SNP to hang on here.  SNP hold (Tricia Marwick – returning)

North-East Fife – A solid Lib Dem seat, but it is the home of a university and this may adversely affect the party’s popularity here.  If it goes, its a shocker of a night for the Lib Dems, given the notional 4,500 majority.  I can see that halved, but not disappearing entirely.  Surely?  Lib Dem hold (Iain Smith – returning)

Perthshire North – a notional 6,000+ majority for the Cabinet Secretary for Finance. Comfortable hold.  SNP hold (John Swinney – returning)

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire – A narrower notional majority of 1,400 for the SNP to defend, but I think if their national vote holds up, this will remain safe.  I think the Tories will throw a lot at it, and probably run them close, dropping the majority to under 1,000… but the SNP will hang on. SNP hold (Roseanna Cunningham – returning)

Stirling – Here’s a tricky one, and one which a lot of regional seats depend on.  This is notionally Labour (by 300 or so votes) but its held by the SNP.  I have a lot of family in the area, all very impressed with the work Bruce Crawford has done, certainly much more so than the previous MSP and so the incumbency factor may play a part here.  Look for the Tories to try and get a bit closer in third… but I think Bruce hangs on here too.  Just. (notional) SNP GAIN (Bruce Crawford – returning)

With all constituencies accounted for, I make it:

SNP – 5
Labour 3
Lib Dem – 1

Throwing that into my electoral calculator, and using the same methodology as before (opinion polls divided by ratio from 2007) I make the regional seat division to be:

Seat 1: Conservative (Murdo Fraser – returning)
Seat 2: Conservative (Elizabeth Smith – returning)
Seat 3: Lib Dem (Willie Rennie – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)
Seat 4: Labour (John Park – returning)
Seat 5: Conservative (Miles Briggs – new face)
Seat 6: Green (Mark Ruskell – new face for 2011 but returning from 2003-7 session)
Seat 7: SNP (Annabelle Ewing – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)

(Seat 8 would be Labour, with Claire Baker returning to Holyrood, but she loses out if Labour take the Dunfermline constituency from the Lib Dems as the latter are compensated on the list)

There was a mistake in my methodology, which heavily UNDERSTATED Labour’s vote share.  Thanks to several folk for pointing out I’d made a mistake. I couldn’t find it earlier, but I’ve found it now.  Anyway, revised figures mean the following:

Seat 1: Conservative (Murdo Fraser – returning)
Seat 2: Conservative (Elizabeth Smith – returning)
Seat 3: Labour (John Park – returning)
Seat 4: Labour (Claire Baker – returning)
Seat 5: Lib Dem (Willie Rennie – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)
Seat 6: Conservative (Miles Briggs – new face)
Seat 7: SNP (Annabelle Ewing – new face at Holyrood but previously MP)

(Seat 8 would be Green – Mark Ruskell returning to Holyrood after missing the 2007-11 session).

So, expected Mid-Scotland and Fife result (2007 in brackets):

SNP –5 + 1 =6 (6)
Labour – 3 + 2 = 5 (5)
Lib Dem – 1 + 1 = 2 (2)
Conservative – 0 + 3 = 3 (3)
7 female to 9 male
12 returning to 4 new faces (2 already known to us as former MPs or MSPs from a previous session)

Tactical voting?
The net result is a Green gain from Labour overall, which is the case whether Labour win Dunfermline from the Lib Dems or not. The net result would now be NO CHANGE from 2007.  The Lib Dems are due two seats, so if they don’t win one seat, they’ll get one on the list.  Similarly, the Tories are likely to win 3 of the list seats, while the Greens, with their share of the vote, are also likely to return one.  Which leaves 2 (or 3, depending on Dunfermline) up for grabs.  This will depend on the close constituencies – if the SNP hang on in all 5, they’ll claim one list seat and Labour the other (as outlined above).  If Lab gain one constituency from the SNP (as well as the likely win in Dunfermline), the SNP would win 2 list seats, compensating for their constituency losses (and providing the same overall result, if not faces, as above – we’d also lose John Park from the Parliament).  If Labour take THREE constituencies from the SNP (unlikely?) as well as Dunfermline, then there is a net gain for Labour.  In that final scenario however, the Greens would only take the last seat by 200 votes from the SNP… so I guess if the Greens want some tactical voting advice here it is to heavily push for the list vote – I make them short by around 500 or so votes now…

Commenting:
Regrettably, on some of the more recent threads, some of the comments have gotten a bit personal and unfocused.  Unfortunately, as the election gets closer and tension rises, this is likely to get worse.  We don’t want this to turn into the comments sections on “quality” newspapers with the excessive aggressive bile on there.  So let’s try to keep the comments as polite as possible and “respectfully disagree”.  Otherwise, you can shout about freedom of speech all you like – they will be moderated and binned.  Thanks in advance.

#SP11 – Edinburgh Central (Physical) Hustings

Mar 24

Posted by Guest Blog in Democracy, Elections, Holyrood | 4 Comments

As a follow up to our (relatively successful!) online version of a candidate hustings for Edinburgh Central, Conservative candidate for the seat Iain McGill has kindly provided the following list of actual, physical, non-virtual hustings happening in the constituency in the next few weeks.  It might sound dull to those of you who don’t live in the constituency – but Malc thought it helpful to demonstrate a) the different organisations involved in organising these events and b) the contrasting types of democracy on show with what we’ve done on here.  Apologies that it has taken a few days to put up, so the “tonight” was actually “Monday” and the “tomorrow morning” was Tuesday…

The Edinburgh Central hustings on Better Nation proved a good idea – and a useful exercise - I’m reading more blogs than news websites, and love Facebook, Twitter & LinkedIn – I see their uses for all my varied interests – including politics.  For me though nothing beats a live hustings – were you never know what the audience are going to throw at you – or even more fearful – the opposition candidates!

We’ve had a few so far – Edinburgh Universities Climate Conference, Fettes College, Amnesty International & Broughton High School all hosting us. There has been some lively debate – everything from human rights to the new forth bridge, recycling Irn Bru bottles to Lybia, Inverleith Park to free prescriptions- and nothing off limits so far!

In Edinburgh Central we are spoilt for choice with hustings – some the traditional, tried and tested ones and others more, well, creative.

For those of you who like to see your candidates in the flesh, were they don’t have a weekend to script the perfect answer to your probing questions here are the hustings booked in so far – though I’m sure there will be one or two more
scheduled!

Tonight we have a Stop Climate Chaos Scotland “Climate Cafe” – sold to us as being like speed dating your politicians – we all get our own table, and people get 3 minutes at a time with us all and then get moved onto the next candidate! This is my first experience of this format – but it should be fun! Lots of coffee, tea & biscuits they tell us…

The rest of this is a fairly exhaustive/exhausting list of hustings coming up – lots of dates, times & topics – do try to come along to one or two and see what you make of us all!

Tomorrow morning on www.freshair.org.uk student radio some us do battle over the papers etc from 10am till high noon.

Wednesday 23rd March sees 3 hustings within a mile of each other:

Spokes have a hustings on cycling & transport issues – 19.30 at Augustine United Reform Church

The Broughton Spurtle have a general hustings 19.30 at Broughton St Marys Church

and The Scottish Federation of Housing Associations have a hustings at 18.00 at St.Andrews & St Georges
on George Street at 17.30.

It’s unusual to have 3 hustings on within a mile of each other at the same time – I am doing the one on housing & homelessness – but hate missing any hustings in my patch – but until the cloning machine for politicians is made a reality I will have to cope!

Saturday 26th March there is an AV debate in Edinburgh at 11am – the referendum, of course, is being held on the same day as the Holyrood election.

Sunday April 1st sees a hustings arranged by The Islamic Centre, Polwarth, Real Foundation of
Scotland and The Muslim League, 18.00 at Portobello Town Hall.

Edinburgh Association Of Community Councils hosts its Scottish Parliament Elections Hustings on Saturday 9 April 2011 10.00 am to 12pm in Edinburgh City Chambers.

Murrayfield Churches Together & Murrayfield Community Council together host hustings at Murrayfield Parish Church on
Tuesday 12th April at 19.30

Wednesday 13th April sees 3 hustings – the first by SAMH, 18.00 at The Point Hotel on Bread Street – and the second at 19.30 at the headquarters of SCVO at the Mansfield Traquair Centre sees the Climate Day Election Debate – this one broadcast live and the one I am doing.

Saturday 16th Aprile sees a hustings themed around learning disabilities, though I am waiting on confirmation of when, where and chaired by whom!

Tuesday 19th April sees Age Concern host a hustings at The Storytelling Centre

Wednesday 20th April sees a hustings in Edinburgh Eastern at the Restalrig Community Hub from 7pm -9pm

Tuesday 26th April sees Edinburgh University Students Association hosting from 18.00 in the dining room on Bristo Square. This will be my second of the day after appearing at the Holyrood Magazine “Supporting Disability” hustings earlier in the day

Thursday 28th April sees Craigleith & Blackhall Community Council hosting at Blackhall St Columbas at 19.00

Presumably this is a familiar story in many seats, but there are plenty opportunities to get involved in questioning candidates and helping you make up your mind who to vote for if you remain undecided.  This is what elections are actually about!