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The Thin Red Line

Nov 4

Posted by Jeff in Defence, Europe | 14 Comments

As comforting as the word may be to a vulnerable little citizen like myself, I’ve always found ‘Defence’ to be the wrong choice of word when it comes to military spending. A shield or a bunker is a good form of defence but bombs, guns and warships are attack equipment, surely. Either way, the slice of spending that goes towards the military and MoD is surely the most primal of our country’s budgets and, unfortunately, one of the most expensive.

Attack may well be the best form of defence but it seems at the moment that Defence is the best form of cost-cutting diplomacy. The UK entering into a defence treaty with France this week is very welcome news. ‘Cheaper together, more expensive apart’ could sum up the philosophy behind the arrangement as the economies of scale that can be achieved through two similarly sized nations pooling resources and expertise could be considerable. I don’t know whose idea it is and I don’t know how much money will be saved but one can’t fault the coalition or David Cameron on this venture.

So why stop there? Why not bring Germany in, and Italy? That’s a diverse range of WW2 players all under the one umbrella which must make the continent, and indeed the world, an even safer place than it already is.

And why not go even further, why not just have one single European Army? Think of the money that could be saved and the security that would bring. How could Slovenia wage war on Denmark if they both share the same armed forces? A blurring of combat units away from national borders and towards UN, NATO and EU distinctions would surely make for a more integrated, harmonious planet.

Of course, the Tory right who cheered Cameron’s Treaty would balk at the distinctly pro-Europe prospect of a single Armed Force, even if there was a veto on where a country’s soldiers could be sent to fight. A convergent military across Europe would no doubt count as a red line for the current Government but a thin one that could perhaps be broken through if the argument was strong enough. After all, I don’t see why a single European Army isn’t just a simple continuation of the logic that brought Cameron and Sarkozy together.

In a strictly UK context it makes perfect sense too. A Scandinavian super-state was ruled out a couple of decades ago primarily because Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland had inconsistent views on NATO and the EU and defensive views were generally just too disparate to reconcile. (Not to mention Norway not wanting to share its lucrative oil revenues, but we’ll leave any such analogies with the UK out of things) Nuclear weapons to one side, it has not been particularly difficult for Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish to see Defence in the same way so there should be a capital of British confidence there, available to be spent on building up a bigger base, pooling costs and strengthening ties with allies.

There are of course political considerations involved. The unapologetically pro-EU camp has lost (or at least avoided) the argument on the benefits of Europe to such an extent that I no longer even know who is making that vital contribution at the upper political echelons. There is not many amongst Cameron, Clegg or Miliband’s ranks who would push for defence treaties beyond this one with just the French at this stage. David Cameron would no doubt need one of his somewhat absurd ‘sovereignty referendums’ if it went any further anyway.

So who could be in favour?

Well, I do not know the Green party position on this general area, if one even exists, but I would imagine that, with their peaceable nature, the Greens would be broadly in favour.

For the SNP, I would imagine that there are key advantages for Nationalists to be behind a single European defence force. It helps to nullify the ‘stronger together, weaker apart’ argument that all of its opposition parties delight in using. If the ‘together’ part of that phrase was Europe then it doesn’t matter if the ‘apart’ part is the UK or Scotland, as far as I can see.

A Europe talking together, working together, planning together and, where necessary, fighting together? All the while saving money to spend on schools, science and health? That’s real progress in my eyes, that’s Euro-topia and that, unbeknownst to the man or not, is the direction that David Cameron is now nudging us towards.

“Clear Green Water”: A Plaid electoral strategy?

Nov 4

Posted by Guest Blog in Constitution, Parties | 5 Comments

Better Nation is chuffed to provide another guest post today.  This one comes all the way from Wales and is authored by Marcus Warner, who is a frequent contributor to Wales Home.  This piece focuses on what Plaid should do to encourage voters to switch to them in May’s Assembly election.

In Wales, perhaps the most notable intellectual insight that has come under devolved politics is former First Minister Rhodri Morgan’s ‘Clear Red Water’ speech in 2002. In it, Morgan defined Welsh Labour’s differences between his devolved Government and the then New Labour Government of Tony Blair.

Aside of the politics or indeed whether the theory was a theory at all beyond political positioning, it has defined the narrative about Welsh parties under devolution doing politics. The Welsh Conservative leader, Nick Bourne, is the latest to put this view forward, arguing that the Welsh Conservatives will still reserve the right to oppose cuts that in his view disproportionally hit Wales (Clear Blue Water). The same can be said for the Welsh Lib Dems, who believe that they will need ‘Clear Yellow Water’ to fight back against the Lib Dems falling polling rating since the coalition in Westminster.

After explaining all that, you might wonder why Plaid feel the need to have ‘clear green water’, particularly given it does not operate outside of being a Welsh Party? Clear Green Water is the distance between itself and Labour but also the ConDems – which is very real in terms of values and policies, but communicating that difference is where the challenge lies.

This of course is made very much difficult given that not only has Plaid been in coalition with Welsh Labour since 2007 in the One Wales Government. While the crowning success will still be defined by the forthcoming referendum on primary law making powers, One Wales has largely been a stable Government delivering solidly progressive policy. It has also been seen as innovative during the economic crisis with the PROact and React schemes, as well as the Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones’ ‘Economic Renewal Plan’ reshaping the Government’s approach to economic development. The lack of underlying splits and tensions has also been noted.

So how does Plaid create that ‘clear green water’. Well I confess to being like a sponge on my strategy as painted here. These ideas are not always my own creations made in isolation, they are bloggers, chats with activists, politicians, the public and even anon commenter’s to my old blog (thanks El Dafydd El!). But I hope that a sufficient amount of my own thoughts still underpin these suggestions.

Might I also say that is about political positioning and narrative, rather than policy. If I am invited back I am happy to share some policy ideas.

To veer slightly from the Better Nation brief of focusing on the positive (we’re as bad at times – Ed) Welsh Labour have done a number of about turns since going into opposition, particularly regarding Wales. Barnett Formula reform, a subject that Plaid has campaigned on a number of years, was dismissed by New Labour during the 13 years of Government. Since May’s general election, those very same dismissing voices now champion Barnett Formula reform like there is no tomorrow. There are a number of very recent policy changes in Welsh Labour that many would consider to be ‘leaving their tanks on Plaid’s lawn’.

My first course of action is to be clinical on these about turns. Relentless focus on such matters will help us decouple from Welsh Labour rather neatly.

The economic mess, or the blame game that goes with it, is something that Plaid can exploit. All the polling shows that the Welsh people lay the blame at the door of the last Labour Government at Westminster, followed closely by the current ConDems. The One Wales Government simply does not feature in this blame. Ultimately there is consistent evidence, backed up this week’s poll about Welsh people’s views on the cuts, that Wales is being hit harder than other places.

My second course of action is to equally blame all three Westminster parties for the economic crisis and for Wales’ impending cuts. Plaid is constantly told that little old Wales would simply be too small to change the economic weather, with the UK being a very different beast. It would seem that all three parties haven’t been able to hold that claim up.

The polls are encouraging if a cause for concern in places. Campaigns can often be very localised and the margins regionally can be quite small between winning and losing a seat. Success in a constituency has knock on effects for regional candidates too. But the one thing Plaid has to focus on is denying Labour 31 seats which would mean a majority. Current polling would suggest Labour are there or thereabouts – but I sense the spike since the general elections has about 10% worth of soft belly to cut away at. It is important to remember that in 2009, the Conservatives topped the poll in the Euro elections and Plaid were not far behind in 3rd place. Welsh Labour looked to be in very real crisis – I don’t sense a massive change in the underlying problems it faces in 2011.

My third course of action is to promote the idea of ‘No One Party state’. There is a powerful narrative of the Labour ‘boyo’ getting all the jobs throughout public life. The effects of one party rule can be felt in the Valleys, but things seem to change once you break the iron grip of the Labour Party. This might be a tad cynical, but when Labour fights with fire, you best fight back with some fiery stuff.

Finally, many of Plaid’s growth areas in are in former or current Labour heartlands. In a two vote per ballot system, there is clearly space for some targeted ‘list votes’ to be split. In many Labour heartland areas, thousands upon thousands of regional votes are essentially thrown in the bin when they are cast for Labour. Plaid need to be canny about how they approach this, there will not be a one size fits all solution. Perhaps the narrative of saying that ‘would you prefer a Plaid regional AM or a Tory regional AM?’ which it increasing is the choice for voters, might be a worth starting point in winning those regional votes for Plaid from Labour voters.

Remember, remember… it’s MOvember!

Nov 3

Posted by Malc in Health | 2 Comments

It’s that time of the year again when you’ll see men of a slightly younger generation (and some of those whom you may ordinarily think of as “cool”) sporting the dodgiest and most hideous ‘taches you’ve ever seen.  Yep, it’s MOvember again!

Began in 1999 when a group of Aussie guys got together and grew some ‘taches for the month of November for charity.  Since 2004, MOvember has been associated with Prostate charities and in 2007 in the UK, The Prostate Cancer Charity linked with the fast-growing (no pun intended!) event.

Anyway, Malc and Jeff joined in the fun last year (pic below) and the three of us have decided to do so again this year (EDIT – the three of us had decided to partake, but Jeff has had to bow out due to some external pressure).  Don’t worry – we’re not asking for cash – just trying to help raise awareness by looking like clowns for the month!  For some of us (Jeff) shaving is more natural whereas, three days in, Malc’s neck already has a million shaving cuts (I guess that’s what you get for having a pretty-much permanent beard since you were 16!).

So here are the three of us pre-MOvember (at our “AGM” – the first time we’ve met since we started this venture!) and how we normally look:

Also, I hear from Twitter than Edinburgh’s rugby boys are all involved and will be posting some pics of their glorious ‘taches on Twitter.  So keep an eye out for Tim Visser, Kyle Traynor, Alex Grove and Jim Thompson over the next few weeks!

So anyway – gents, this is aimed specifically at you (obviously, since women don’t have a prostate!).  Know the risk factors – get checked out.  And find out more by visiting here.

Now for your laugh – here’s last year’s effort.

This year’s effort looks pretty similar in shape (though obviously, three days in, it looks pretty weak at the moment).  Check back for more photos (if it doesn’t turn your stomach too much) later this month!

Yer Tea’s oot Palin

Nov 3

Posted by Jeff in Elections | 8 Comments

Despite not knowing many, or even any, of the characters involved, watching some of the Tea Party’s high-fiving, whooping and hollering candidates each get put to the electoral sword is highly satisfying indeed.

Sharron Anglein has pulled defeat from the jaws of victory against Harry Reid in Nevada, out-of-her-depth Christine O’Donnell barely got a look-in in Delaware and the California Governor candidate managed to blow £160m and still come up short. Lovely. How d’ya like them apples, Ms Palin?

Not that the current situation can be painted as good news for Barack Obama and Team Democrat; the Tea Party did make some impressive gains. The Democrats are losing the debate, possibly mostly due to the political cycle. However, some respite is in evidence through the lack of an attractive Republican for the US to revolve around.

What continues to get me is how the supposedly religious right can vote for tax cuts, smaller state Governing and a very individualist approach to society. It’s all a far cry from any sort of commitment to love thy neighbour…

Anyway, the worst news for Obama today? Sarah Palin now cannot possibly be the Republicans’ Presidential candidate. Surely. Right?

Poll – Scots disapprove of Clegg more than Cameron

Nov 2

Posted by Jeff in Westminster | 16 Comments

Angus Reid has released details of a UK-wide poll that contains any number of headlines that can be drawn from it, including:

SNP now UK’s fourth party
Labour holds slight poll edge
Lib Dems slump to 7% in Scotland
SNP and Labour neck-and-neck in Scotland

I, of course, have gone for a different tack, choosing to focus on the result that 60% of Scots disapprove of David Cameron’s performance as Prime Minister but a higher still 63% of Scots disapprove of Nick Clegg’s performance as Deputy Prime Minister.

With the standard caveats of sub-sample polling, it is difficult to tell if such a result is intuitive or counter-intuitive really. The Lib Dems shoring up a Conservative Government was always going to be a tough sell in Scotland so it is perhaps expected that they come in for the strongest disapproval. However, Nick Clegg’s defence is that his party has taken the right-wing edge off what a Conservative Government would have otherwise done with some left-wing coalition victories, an argument that is often overlooked and one that I personally have a lot of time for.

However, the numbers do not lie and it seems it will be Nick Clegg’s turn to follow in the footsteps of electorally toxic individuals such as Tony Blair and Barack Obama when May ’11 comes around.

It is of course an issue of trust that is undermining the Lib Dems at the moment. The sight of ‘VAT bombshell’ posters and signed tuition fee pledges moved their poll figures onto the quicksand after the broken promises and it is not clear what may bring them back onto firmer ground. It is also not difficult to imagine Nick Clegg arguing his case north of the border and being booed and jeered throughout, exacerbating the problem rather than solving it.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are of course a separate entity which may help insulate them from the worst effects of London-based decisions but with little to mark Tavish Scott and his team out as ‘different’ (the student vote is surely now long gone) then of course they will be tarred with the same brush.

With the two-horse race looking certain to be a continuing narrative right up to May 2011, particularly with the SNP closing the gap on Labour, perhaps the best that the other parties can hope for is anything other than a drubbing.

If so, Deputy Prime Minister and his Scottish colleagues have a lot of work to do.