Better Nation

This is the second in my wee sequence on the leadership contest currently underway in GPEW. The Scottish party has it easy, relatively – our two main elections are the locals and Holyrood, both of which are fought under a form of PR.

For GPEW Westminster is probably both the most important election, at least in terms of national profile, and also the hardest to crack. Hence my second question, below, again put to all eight candidates, and again, thanks to all for their answers.

Q. How many Westminster seats would you hope the party could target by 2015?

Leader candidates

Romayne Phoenix: As we are now, we must fight to keep Brighton Pavilion, and target Norwich South to build on the increasing support in that constituency. Then we need to look at London and Cambridge and decide whether to target seats in each of these areas with a history of support / positive voter figures. We will be in a very different situation from 2010 if voters accept Labour as the party to oppose the coalition government’s policies – a recent survey showed that people could not really believe that the Labour Party could have policies that would be actively against the interests of the majority.

However, 85% of the government’s planned cuts are yet to be felt and now the promise is for continued austerity until at least 2020. If we work effectively to build the alternative message – through campaigning in addition to our TTW elections work – then we could attract enough support to target and expect success. If we build enough support then we could target a few more seats – well chosen and with effective election teams to drive the campaigns through – and then we could be heading for serious political attention and a further increase in party membership and support.

Peter Cranie: We must hold Brighton Pavilion and we can win Norwich South. These are Target to Win (TTW) 2015. There must also be up to a dozen seats that must be TTW 2020. The first major step in these seats is to be targeting a second place finish or a credible 10 to 20% of the vote share. They are likely to be Labour or Lib Dem held seats, and if we have either a Labour or Lab/Lib coalition after the 2015 election, delivering more of the same austerity medicine (as we know they will), we will have a major opportunity to advance politically.

I can give you one example from local knowledge. In the local elections in Liverpool this year we had higher than usual turnout due to the coincidental Mayoral content, but still only about half what we would expect in a General Election. Labour “won” Liverpool Riverside constituency with 64% of the vote and the Green Party was “second” with 18%. We finished first in one ward (54%), but had second place finishes in 5 of the other wards that are included in the constituency. I’ve since contested the by-election in one of these wards where we were second, in a particularly strong Labour area, and we’ve nudged the vote up from 6% to 9% (which is the level of vote we need to win a Euro seat in the NW).

What is crucial is that there are one or two of these seats in each of the Euro regions that we can win in 2014. The election of an MEP is crucial in raising our electoral credibility, but this will have to go hand in hand with an increase in the number of local councillors between 2014 and 2019. It will then be about applying the lessons learned from our successful Parliamentary TTW work in Brighton Pavilion and incredibly hard work in the constituency sustained throughout six years.

Natalie Bennett: We need to hold Brighton Pavilion but Brighton will have be far more self-sufficient this time round if we’re to spread the benefit of winning that Parliamentary seat. I think it is vital that we identify the “next generation” of Parliamentary seats and are fighting to put them in a credible position by the 2020 election. The Green Party’s ambitions have to go beyond having one MP.

However, we’re starting this process late. If we were going to win, say, three seats in 2015 we would be able to name, today, the constituencies and the candidates and point to election results that would persuade the electorate in the constituency that a Green vote is a winning vote. It’s a tough thing to say but I don’t think we can do that right now. To say anything else would be a triumph of optimism over analysis.

This means that we urgently need to raise our game. Over the next two years we to develop ten serious next-generation seats across England and Wales where we are fighting for a second or third place to set us up for 2020. During the heat of 2015 the pressure will be on us to focus all our resources on Brighton Pavilion if we haven’t put in place realistic structures to ensure we spread our message across the country. With four regions with new MEPs who didn’t have them before this is very doable, but it simply won’t happen unless we make a conscious effort not to fall back into a safe, overly conservative electoral strategy.

Pippa Bartolotti: This all depends on the strength of the local parties and their commitment to put vast amounts of energy into support for the candidate. There is no way but the hard way, and right now I would not like to put a number on it as I know much will change in the next 3 years.

Deputy leader candidates

Alex Phillips: The 2014 Euro elections will provide an opportunity to see which constituencies are providing the bulk of Green support. Using this data, the party should find the top 20 constituencies to target come 2020. Five years of sustained resource targetting and Green councillor growth in these constituencies can make them winnable under first past the post come 2020. Remember, you may only need 31% of the vote to win under first past the post. You don’t need to win over everyone, just enough of them to get you over the line. For 2015, retaining Brighton Pavilion and winning in Norwich South have to be our top two priorities.

Richard Mallender: 2015 is not far away! I think we should set one target seat per region.

Will Duckworth: Hope ? 20. Expect ? 3. This is very expensive and we need to think carefully about standing lots of Parliamentary candidates and get the best possible value for money. We need to stand candidates in the proportion of seats needed for BBC coverage but we need to fight target wards with one eye on holding on to our deposits whenever possible. With the likely increase in the cost of the deposit for Parliamentary elections we need to use our resources wisely.

Now is the time to support and strengthen local and regional parties in order to build for the European elections in 2015 and beyond.

Labour will have the wind in their sails at the next election and we will have to work very hard to keep Brighton Pavilion. The second strongest constituency is Norwich South where Adrian Ramsay doubled his vote in 2010 to 15%, and would need to double this again to win that seat. The third target seat was in Lewisham with Darren Johnson coming fourth with 6.7% of the vote( which was a 3.4% drop on the previous election).

Caroline Allen: 2010 was tough for many local parties and we didn’t make the progress we hoped for, in many places we went significantly backwards. It’s clear we have a lot to do and I’m not going to make ambitious predictions to try and impress people. I do think there are good reasons to be hopeful though, at this stage I see many places with a lot of potential, even if their 2010 results don’t make them look like real targets. The progress in the West Midlands over a short period shows that regions and parties that are organised can make great progress. How we organise and share good practice over the current year is going to be crucial to the Euro results and into 2015, so I’m not going to look into my crystal ball, but rather look to get elected as Deputy Leader and graft to make things happen.

I was very drawn to the answers from Peter and Natalie, both of whom have a consistently excellent grasp of the electoral and organisational context the party is operating in, and both tied the election of additional MPs in 2015 to success in the previous year’s Euro-elections, which strikes me as essential. Romayne’s question about Labour’s position in 2015 will be important in campaign terms when the election is nearer, but right now we need to tackle the issues that are under our control, which is why I found Peter and Natalie’s answers more impressive here. He sees more of the optimistic side while her position is more cautious, but they’re not inconsistent. I’m starting to wish they’d stood on a job-share platform or on a leader-deputy ticket, although Caroline and Alex also gave strong answers from a strategic perspective. Both with this question and the last one I’ve not seen much that makes me think my pen will hover over either Richard or Pippa, though.

More soon, Green election anorak fans (including Dan, who did an interesting piece on the party’s gender balance rules).

The election to replace Caroline Lucas and Adrian Ramsay as leader and deputy leader of the Green Party of England and Wales is underway, with ballots already out, and I sent a few questions to the four candidates running for the leadership, and to the four candidates for deputy leader.

Given that I’m trying to do justice to the views of eight people on a range of issues, this is therefore the first of four or five posts that will hopefully follow in quick succession.

First question follows, then all eight answers, then my very brief views on them at the bottom.

Q: Where are the next million Green voters coming from and why will they vote for us? (i.e. non-voters, new voters, or former supporters of other parties)

Leader candidates

Pippa Bartolotti: My goal is to open the Green Party to new members across the spectrum. I am pretty centrist in my outlook, but passionately anti-cuts with a strong environmental bias. I am just as keen to attract disillusioned Labour voters as working class Tory voters. With the rise of concern for the environment, I see us appealing to conserve(atives) who are changing their priorities. Addressing the non-voter is a big challenge, yet an important one. For this we must appeal to the Green party movement, rather than the Green party politics. We are piloting a social event programme  in Wales which is open to non members and already it is showing signs of success.

Natalie Bennett: We can win all of those groups to our politics. However, in general our biggest gains are when we persuade people who are already voting to switch to us. Much is made of the collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote and we should work to win those defectors but we have to be cautious about this. Firstly, in some areas there were never that many Lib Dem voters in the first place and we couldn’t win seats if they all came over to us en masse. Second, those defectors are going over to the Tories, Labour or dropping out disillusioned – we can win those votes in areas where we’re seen as a credible alternative but they certainly won’t come over to us automatically.

The Labour vote however is much weaker than many people realise. Where there is no alternative people are going back to Labour in opposition to this disastrous government but there is no deep enthusiasm for Ed Miliband. When we put the work in on the ground and become seen as the credible opposition we can and do take those votes. In 2014 I think we can raise our vote from 2009’s 1.25 million to 2 million by pursing a broad strategy that leaves no region untouched. I think realistically we can win MEPs in six regions but only if we ensure we’re giving them all coverage, support and political affection. To win, for example, the eastern region (which would be number six on an even swing) we need a modest jump of under 2% but it won’t fall into our laps, and the national party needs to take winning all four of the new regions seriously.

Even in those areas where we are unlikely to be winning an MEP this time it is the perfect opportunity for the regions to start thinking strategically about how we combine regional work with targeting new council seats. I’m very optimistic that, with the right priorities, these European elections can be very good for us, even in regions where we don’t win an MEP. Then we can make sure every region has an MEP in 2018, so everyone in England and Wales has at least one Green elected rep.

Peter Cranie: All of the above. Demographics will play a part but only if we can actually increase turnout in the 18 to 30 age groups as our support is highest among young people. Non-voters have often given up on politics or don’t feel that their vote makes a difference. Getting the message across that we are close to electing more Greens to represent them will help, but what they need to hear or see is someone who can inspire them to support us. Caroline Lucas has been incredible in that role, but she is just one voice. I believe I’m someone with “fire in the belly”, and I believe that some people need to see and hear someone who has gone through similar experiences to their own and who feels the anger they feel.

We won our first MP seat not by changing our policies but by connecting with a broader range of voters on the basis of our less well-known but very popular social and economic policies. So we need to strengthen the emphasis on reaching those voters who we know are sympathetic to our policies beyond the environmental agenda. There are probably millions of former Labour and Lib Dem voters who are already closer to us on a wide range of issues than they are to their former parties, and we need to make stronger efforts to connect with them. Consider all those people opposed to the anti-austerity agenda who will have no established party other than the Greens to vote for; all those who want a Robin Hood Tax, redistributive taxation, a crackdown on tax avoidance/evasion; those who want to protect the NHS and post offices and who want a not-for-profit People’s Bank, and an end to bailouts but a windfall taxes on bankers’ bonuses.

Romayne Phoenix: There are many thousands of reluctant Labour voters. Some would vote Green if they considered our policies and values, but many will not because we don’t have a PR system and the likelihood of shifting most parliamentary seats at the moment is so unlikely. There are Lib Dem voters who feel betrayed, and if they are beginning to doubt the values of a capitalist society, and doubting the potential success of the current austerity economics, may find a comfortable home with our party. Those who lost any trust in party politics, well before the recent scandals, triggered the Power Enquiry to investigate the historic drop in voter turn out, may be encouraged to support our policies that address many of the concerns revealed by that study. The 50,000 students who demonstrated against EMA cuts and tuition fee increases also deserve a party that supports their interests, and people involved with Occupy and UK Uncut will be able to support our equality policies, anti capitalist ‘post growth’ economics and our open, transparent and democratic internal party structure.

However, few of these potential supporters, voters, members will come to us at all if we don’t go to them first. Our national election agent has crunched the numbers and we are on target to have a few hundred councillors in the next hundred years. I’m standing with Cllr Will Duckworth and we are planning to help deliver the very successful ‘ upgraded’ Target To Win version – The West Midlands Strategy – but even with this plan we will not grow fast enough, build enough local electoral success or increase our membership at a sufficient rate to bring us effective political influence.

We need to take responsibility alongside all others that we can work with to build a mass movement of resistance against austerity and privatisation. This is part of our philosophical basis to work by any (peaceful) means possible to make the necessary progress for environmental and social justice. The work that has started is already helping to create a space for a real political debate about what sort of society we wan to live in. Greens are involved in this. I am Chair of the Coalition of Resistance and we have given platforms to elected Green Party members to contribute to this debate. Caroline Lucas MP was at the centre of the front page of 10,000 COR broadsheets at the TUC March for the Alternative on 26th. But it is not enough for the GPEW to be affiliated to COR. Greens need to be active and campaigning alongside people in their communities on all local issues arising from the destructive effects of austerity measures, and working with them to build strength at both a regional and at a national level.We have so much work to do to counteract the wall of media misinformation that refuses to introduce any alternative ideas into the current political ‘debates’.

We need to help shift the mood of the nation, to bring alternative ideas to more people as we stand beside them in the fight against gross inequality and mismanagement of our economy and our ecology. Then we will get the attention of the masses, then they will look at how we work for them when elected at a local level, then we can call for their votes – from young, old, working or unemployed, other political parties or none, and from any background – and they could work with us to ‘get the vote out’.

Deputy leader candidates

Caroline Allen: A mixture; many non voters are sick of the grey parties and their out of touch, corrupt, professional politicians; we must differentitate ourselves and appeal to those people. Young people will be reaching the age of 18 with the worse outlook in jobs, housing and education for decades; we must speak to their concerns. Labour seem to be in the resurgence, but their support is soft. If we get out and talk people and demonstrate that we care about their concerns they will vote Green. There are millions of people who have been let down by Labour first and now the coalition, millions are struggling. We must speak for and to these people. People will vote for us if we can show how we will make life better for them – we need a positive message of a better Green future.

Richard Mallender: From new voters, non voters or supporters of other political parties? We need to get them from all three! Many people are turned off by party politics but are still interested in politics in terms of how decisions affect their everyday lives. We need to be recognised as a strong, credible alternative to the three main parties, win over disillusioned Labour and LibDem supporters in particular and have clear messages for young people that they can trust us, that not all parties are simply varying shades of grey.

Overall, I was surprised at the extent to which the field is interested in targeting Labour voters and downplaying former Lib Dems. Not that I disagree, just that this might be a difference between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Here disillusioned Labour voters have the option of the SNP, who talk left enough for them to appeal to wavering Greens. This focus for GPEW does also perhaps reflect the seats they’re targeting, where the Lib Dems were often already weak or have already collapsed.

In terms of differentiating the responses to help inform my vote, I am a sucker for a an evidence base for this kind of strategic question. From the Deputy list, Alex and Will score highest with me on that question. I want a leadership team that puts winning first, and that means understanding the terrain you’re fighting over. On the leadership side, Natalie’s answer felt strongest to me, not least because it was the only one to talk explicitly about the European elections which, barring coalition meltdown, will be the next important national election for GPEW, and the party’s strongest as the only national election they fight under PR. I’m also curious about what The West Midlands Strategy that Romayne mentions is. Perhaps someone could elaborate in the comments. On the policy side I felt Peter’s response scored highly. The issues he cites at the end are all strong choices – left policies which are also pragmatic and easy to communicate without sounding like leftist fist-waving, and they’re exactly the sort of issues I’d like to see GPEW put front and centre.

If you found this useful, tune in for more shortly. If not, please steer clear of my next posts for while.