The SNP shouldn’t have a monopoly on visions of independence

A most welcome guest today from Calum Wright, who very occasionally blogs at North By Left. Calum is a graduate of the University of St Andrews and is currently studying towards a Masters at Uppsala Universitet in Sweden. He specialises in early modern northern European history with specific interests in seventeenth century Britain, the history of ideas and political thought.

Monday saw the launch of a broad coalition of those with an interest in the future of Scotland, a coalition which presumably includes everyone in this country and a few more beside. The endeavour is as noble as it is unfocused, attempting to tackle the complex issue of ‘devolution max’, a constitutional conundrum more profound than independence. It is, of course, important that civic Scotland is engaged in the debate at all levels, but I am concerned that on the side of independence the SNP dominates, threatening to stifle all debate.

It is right that the SNP, which has campaigned ceaselessly and imaginatively for independence, should voice their well considered views. But they should not be the only voice, not even, dare I suggest it, the main voice. The mainstream media has so far ignored the Scottish Greens, but beyond the political parties represented at Holyrood there needs to be a pro-independence coalition which encompasses civic Scotland in all its variety.

Of course it can be argued that the SNP is itself a coalition of disparate interests, gathered together under Salmond’s big top with independence as the pole supporting the structure. Under that canvas huddle tartan tories and socialists, traditionalists and radicals, liberals and conservatives, republicans and monarchists. So the SNP is fundamentally unable to articulate a vision of post-independence Scotland partly because it can’t agree on what it should look like.

The SNP have therefore adopted a fairly conservative position, undoubtedly out of a desire not to frighten the horses as it were. However, this cautious approach risks hampering the swell of self-confidence which is growing in Scotland. The likelihood of independence is becoming real, and once this realisation has dawned the lid is lifted on the possibilities it offers. The unionists want to frighten Scots by trying to overwhelm them with this very fact: think of all the new institutions, civil servants, government departments, embassies, laws, legislation etcetera that will be required, they say.

So far the SNP response has been to offer some rough suggestions, which is appropriate given that future policies are the prerogative of future governments, not current ones. But a better response, and one which should involve all pro-independence parties, organisations and individuals in debate, is to say, “Yes, think of all the new things that will be required.” This is a huge change, and one that requires the people of Scotland not to sit in the audience but to take to the stage and participate in. Independence is too important to be left to the politicians.

The monumental implications and attendant possibilities of independence have been grasped by a only few and articulated by even less. Just yesterday a junior defence minister, in response to MPs’ questions about the future of Trident, stated that ‘The government are [sic] not making plans for independence as we are confident that people in Scotland will continue to support the Union in any referendum.’ Many people continue to act as if nothing will happen and many Scots remain pessimistic, burying their hopes of profound change under a traditional façade of cynicism and self-deprecation.

The problem is that the unionists warble on about technicalities and policies which are the right of post-independence parliaments alone, whilst the SNP offers, at least publicly, a timid imagining of Scotland’s future, rhetorically inspiring but ultimately nebulous. Dr Peter Lynch has written on Better Nation that ‘Independence is not a year zero for government or government institutions. Rather it is a case of bolting on new policy responsibilities… onto existing government institutions and organisations’.

This is a rather unexciting prospect. Surely the sine qua non of self-rule is the right to make decisions independently, irrespective of whether they are right or wrong. This includes the right to imagine a new Scotland, not necessarily mimicking the constitutional structures of England nor kowtowing to a fictitious constitutional past. I do not have a bold plan for a utopian Scotland at hand, but I do believe that the debate about Scotland’s future should not stop at the answer to Salmond’s proposed question. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Yes. No.

There is more to be discussed, and if the SNP are left as the safe, curiously reassuring arbiters of the meaning of independence we may wake up in an independent Scotland where so much has changed, yet nothing at all. Specific policies are of course the responsibility of future Scottish governments, but I want to see the Scottish imagination awoken as part of a process of shaking off an ingrained inferiority complex and shedding the dependency psyche which the union has burdened Scots with. We should think more in terms of what independence could mean rather than what it would mean.

SNP insists rUK Green Investment Bank should be located in independent Scotland

A contender for the hollowest of arguments coming out of Holyrood, possibly not just in this current term but in the Parliament’s history, must surely be the SNP’s calls for the UK to locate its Green Investment Bank in Edinburgh. Marco Biagi, MSP for Edinburgh Central, has reiterated those calls over the weekend.

What makes the argument particularly empty is the seeming unwillingness on the part of the SNP to directly address the elephant in the room about this decision, the fact that Scotland may well not be a part of the UK in a few years time.

I enjoyed a bit of Twitter back and forth on the matter on Saturday evening with Marco as follows:

Stepping back for a moment to consider what this Green Investment’s Bank’s purpose is, we have the following statement from the main Government site on the institution:

The UK is to set up the world’s first investment bank solely dedicated to greening the economy.

The initiative is part of the Government’s commitment to setting the UK firmly on course towards a green and growing economy, while also delivering long-term sustainable growth.

This transition to a green economy presents significant growth opportunities for UK-based businesses, both at home and abroad.

So it’s pretty clear that this is a UK bank then and not an international or EU body.

Timelines:

The Green Investment Bank project will evolve over three phases:

UK Green Investments – From 2012 until state aid approval for GIB is granted, BIS’s UK Green Investments project will make direct investments in green infrastructure projects
Establishment – GIB will be established as a as a stand-alone institution following state-aid approval. It is expected that state aid approval will be granted in spring 2013.
Full borrowing GIB – From April 2015, the GIB will be given full powers to borrow, subject to public sector net debt falling as a percentage of GDP and further state aid approval being granted.

So investments/establishment and full borrowing will straddle the date of the independence referendum and there is no way of knowing, at the time when the bank is getting up and running, whether Scotland will be a part of the UK or not by the time the Green Investment Bank gets going. Who in their right mind would start to build such a bank north of the border?

Marco’s argument seems to be that the Prime Minister of rUK should hire foreign Scottish bankers to run an rUK bank, just because a significant amount of local green energy potential happens to be in Scotland. By this same logic, Cairn Energy shouldn’t be based on Lothian Road in Edinburgh but should be hiring Indian and Greenland accountants to run its finances and head office operations outside of Scotland.

It is at best fanciful and at worst hypocritical to argue for a UK institution to sit within Scotland while simultaneously arguing for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom and be a separate country.

Granted, as pointed out on Twitter above, it is possible for the Green Investment Bank to be adapted into an IGO if Scottish independence was to go ahead but that is such an awkward argument to make against the backdrop of the coming referendum that it surely won’t carry much, if any, water. ‘Say no to UK’s nuclear weapons (but Yes to their Green Bank)’ does not a catchy slogan make.

When this approach is compared and contrasted with the Scottish Lib Dem argument that Scotland is stronger within the UK and that this Green Investment Bank should be in Edinburgh, with its £3bn+ of investment, it is clear that there is a distinct lack of cohesion. It is also, incidentally, a shame that party differences and looming elections seem to be preventing the SNP and Lib Dems from working together on this one.

Marco’s been sent out to bat on this one and he’s doing so manfully despite a very sticky wicket indeed. Fair play to him but I’m afraid I am not buying this approach from the SNP at all and far from it being a case of standing up for Scotland, it strikes me as being a quick way of undermining one’s argument in favour of independence and appearing really quite dishearteningly disingenuous in the process.

I guess disingenuous trumps irrelevant when it comes to fighting to get involved in such a key UK decision that affects the important Scottish areas of environment, banking and employment.

Scottish independence and a UK Green Investment Bank based in Edinburgh are an either/or situation that may even end up proving to be neither/nor. If the SNP was serious about having this bank in Scotland, it would be holding its referendum sooner rather than later.

A Tale of Two Motions of the Week


First up is Patrick Harvie. He’s not very happy with the Dear Green Place’s… uhmm… Greenness.

Motion S4M-01856.1: Patrick Harvie, Glasgow, Scottish Green Party, Date Lodged: 31/01/2012

Glasgow’s Bid to Become First European Green Capital in the UK

As an amendment to motion S4M-01856 in the name of Drew Smith (Glasgow’s Bid to Become First European Green Capital in the UK), leave out from “a boost” to end and insert “a bizarre outcome for a city with persistent and severe problems of air pollution, congestion, low recycling rates, poor quality public transport and degraded public space, and in which local government policies have continually failed to address these problems, and calls on Glasgow City Council to focus on transformation of its own track record on environmental action instead of what is considered wasting its time on attempting to win undeserved recognition for its limited efforts to date.”

Fair enough. Like Edinburgh, Glasgow has pretty appalling air pollution, Union St’s a horror show and he’s calling them on it. A clear, concise and unambiguous motion directly addressing an important issue. A (recycled) Gold star.

That wasn’t the only motion concerning Glasgow this week. Sadly, this second one isn’t as good. Or good. Or in possession of any redeeming feature what so ever.

Motion S4M-01921: Liam McArthur, Orkney Islands, Scottish Liberal Democrats, Date Lodged: 02/02/2012

Hands off Groundskeeper Willie 

That the Parliament notes that it has been confirmed that Groundskeeper Willie of The Simpsons fame hails from Kirkwall, Orkney; understands that the revelation is made in an episode entitled The Daughter Also Rises, to be broadcast in America on 12 February 2012, where Willie confides in Bart that his father was a ‘doonie’ and his mother was an ‘uppie’, in reference to the two teams in the world-famous ‘Ba game’; understands how the tension created by this modern day version of Capulets and Montagues tore his family apart but welcomes the fact that the long-running debate over Willie’s heritage is now at an end, and calls on Glasgow City Council to renounce its claim to Orkney’s Groundskeeper Willie as a son of that fair city.

Sweet mercy. This is what our Parliament has come to? Celebrating the birth place of a fictional character? The funny yellowy party that isn’t as popular as it used to be commenting on a funny yellow skinned character in a show that isn’t as popular as it used to be? Write out “I must not submit pointless motions about fictional characters to Parliament” a hundred times and don’t do it again.

True independence means having our own currency

The SNP appear finally to have woken up to the threat posed to the referendum by their support for Scottish membership of the Eurozone – given the incessant diet of Eurocrisis stories – and John Swinney has this week made a brave effort to kick it into the longest grass he could find. Leaving aside the debate about whether an independent Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU, or conversely would be compelled to join the Euro, what would be the best approach to the currency question for Scotland?

There are four basic options. Let’s call them Ireland, Montenegro, Norway and Sweden.

Ireland joined the Euro at the start, back in 1999, and it’s fair to say it seemed like a good idea at the time. Initially the Irish enjoyed an economic boom, built on low interest rates and low corporation tax, but as we know, it proved unstable to say the least. If the good times had kept rolling, it would have been hard to argue with, but more than a decade in the single currency has demonstrated the serious downsides to Euro membership. They surrendered control of monetary policy first, and now, with the new treaty, are about to surrender some control over fiscal policy too. Austerity is biting hard, the bond markets may again try to pick them off the back of the herd, and only the most diehard Euro-enthusiasts see joining their Euro woes as the way forward at this point. To get to this point we would in any case need to operate for a period with our own currency.

Montenegro uses the Euro, having previously used the Deutsche Mark (in the same way much of the former Yugoslavia did, de facto) but is not a member of the Eurozone. They have no true central bank of the form familiar from other independent nation states, and no say over monetary policy, and their fiscal policy is only limited by their desire to join the EU and become a full member of the Eurozone. A country in this position retains the option to start their own currency up (and, as the Velvet Divorce shows, this is easier than might be assumed), but their economic independence is limited to say the least.

Norway remains fully independent, having rejected EEC (as was) membership in a 1972 referendum. They run their own currency, and retain complete fiscal and monetary freedom (aside from any bowing and scraping to the markets they feel obliged to engage in). Through membership of the European Economic Area they gain access to EU markets as if they were members, and must comply with almost all single market requirements. The downside here, clearly, is the Norwegians have no formal input into those rules, and, oddly, they are required to contribute more than a billion Euros towards social and economic cohesion funds despite being ineligible for any funding in return.

Sweden is a full EU member, but has retained the krona despite being notionally committed to Euro membership, and despite not having an optout. As yet, though, they haven’t even gone into the ERM2 convergence zone, the essential next step if they were to join the Euro: and in 2003 moves towards the Euro were rejected in a referendum. The country’s economic policy is largely in domestic hands, both monetary and to a lesser extent fiscal (hence the decision to stay out of the latest treaty, or at least not to be governed by it while outside the Eurozone), but either way they retain all the advantages of EU membership.

John Swinney’s preferred short- and medium-term option, retention of the pound, has no direct current parallels in Europe, but the closest comparison is with Montenegro, with the Bank of England playing the part of the European Central Bank. We’d have no control at all over monetary policy, without even MPs at Westminster to lobby the Chancellor or any reason why Scottish interests should be considered by the Monetary Policy Committee. We’d have no true central bank, no ability to consider policies like quantitative easing.

it’s all the currency downsides of the Union with none of the input. It sounds reassuring, though: “we’ll retain the pound”. Not scary. No change. Like “we’ll retain the Saxe-Coburg Gothas“. But no amount of flannel from Mr Swinney about hopes for “lengthy and solid agreement with the Bank of England” alters the fact that any such agreement would have to be entirely on the Bank’s terms. It’s not even clear why that’d be better than adopting the strict Montenegin approach and just circulating the Euro.

The Irish example is perhaps even more unappealing, for reasons that have become obvious to to the SNP as well. For me, this leaves only our two Scandinavian neighbours as possible role models. Personally I’m still on balance in favour of EU membership, although the way the Eurozone crisis has exacerbated the Union’s centralising tendencies is gradually putting me off. For now, it looks like those in the EU but not in the Eurozone have the best of both worlds, but there may come a time when true independence outside the EU was clearly in Scotland’s best interests. Sweden for now, in other words, but with an eye on Norway.

Don’t make the discussion about Scotland, and leave aside the economics for now. Just ask Family Fortunes contestants what the characteristics of an independent country are. It seems likely that having your own currency and your own head of state would be pretty high up their list, whatever the experience of living next to the Eurozone and in the Commonwealth may tell us. It’s not a bizarre and outlandish thought.

And that’s the kind of independence I want. One where Scotland genuinely runs her own affairs. Plenty of other small countries have their own currencies – in fact, apart from Montenegro and Eurozone members, that’s the norm. Let’s do the same (and let’s have no Queen on it either: the idea that a new and notionally progressive state should choose the hereditary principle is surely absurd).

The Nats have a decent starting point. Yes: London’s control over our economy doesn’t benefit us. Yes: it’s remote and undemocratic. Yet Swinney’s plan would leave future Chancellors at Westminster and the Bank of England in charge of Scotland’s economy, while actually reducing the influence we have over them. And he’s still retaining the option of handing those policy levers over to the even more remote and undemocratic European Central Bank.

This economically incompetent position feels like it’s driven by focus group, like so much of the SNP’s trimming and tacking, motivated by a desire not to alarm the public who the SNP presumably believe care more about what the money in their pocket looks like than they do about the actual economic merits of a particular position. It’s a soft spot for the Unionist campaign to attack, though, and surely won’t hold up to intense scrutiny during a referendum campaign. Time to reconsider.

Note: this is my position, not Scottish Green Party policy, which remains to oppose membership of the single currency and to support independence. Technically that could mean support for either an independent Scottish currency or, ironically, John Swinney’s approach. I have no doubt that this will be discussed at Conference prior to any referendum.

Romney, Cameron & Salmond – the axis of diesel

In what may yet prove a knockout blow, Mitt Romney swept to victory in Florida on Tuesday with a huge 46% of the popular vote in Florida. Ask any SNP member how a big a share of the vote 46% is and they will tell you in no uncertain, glowing terms.

Given that no US President has won re-election with unemployment levels higher than 7.2% (current rate is ~8.5%), perhaps we should get used to seeing Mitt’s face in the papers, despite “having second place stamped through him like a stick of rock”.

We shall wait and see of course but a blue-blooded special relationship of Romney & Cameron will make Clinton & Blair look positively socialist by comparison.

The Tory/Republican/Tea Party/Libertarian (pick a branch, it’s the same tree) argument goes that people know best where to put their money and that open markets allow for capital to be allocated in the most efficient way for the greater good. Oh really?, I say. Oh really!?

Let’s take a few examples of why this is a wrongheaded approach to how to run a society:

– Much of the money made from huge incomes goes into second homes (or third, fourth, fifth etc) as this is one of the safest ways to guarantee a stable return on your cash and also ensures that wealth is kept within the family. The adverse knock-on impact of this is threefold – (1) the rich get richer and so the equality gap widens, (2) house prices increase (as more houses are held by fewer and fewer people) so people struggle to get onto a housing market that is the primary route for ensuring a decent pension and (3) the economy falters as money is being taken out of business and put into personal property portfolios. Low interest rates may well be boosting credit but it is simultaneously slicing capital out of the economy. A tax on second homes, or the more radical approach (as adopted in Sweden) of banning people from owning second homes domestically, is worth a look but neither Cameron nor Romney will bring this forward.

– Linked to the above, lower corporation taxes, as both Romney and Cameron favour, is the quickest way to take money out of the economy and into the micro-economy of the super rich. Would banks be paying out such huge bonuses if they had an extra few percent of tax to pay to the Government which, in turn, would help safeguard jobs in the public sector? One would hope not. There is a risk that small and medium sized businesses would have their lending cut to safeguard bonuses but that doesn’t mean that the three-pronged ideal of fair levels of Corporation Tax, minimal bonuses and high employment levels shouldn’t be the target.

– A recent example of what Mitt Romney spent his considerable income on is a $4m donation to the Mormon church. That is Mitt’s decision to make and I have nothing against Mormons of course, but the argument that people can direct capital better than Governments can for the betterment of society seems a little fanciful when this money, money that Mitt clearly doesn’t need, would arguably be better spent paying down the US debt or beefing up its economy. The same situation arises across the UK today from extra foreign holidays being unnecessarily taken or a new German car sitting in the garage. Disposable incomes feed the UK cash cow’s flabby underbelly that desperately needs milked.

– Train fares have increased 6%, rents have increased 4% (12% in London incidentally), food costs have increased 36%, public sector salaries have increased 0% and directors’ salaries have increased, wait for it, 50%. Where is the fairness there? Where is the progressive realignment of wealth? Will Cameron and Romney save us from this madness? Doubtful.

So, will Scotland be a buttress against this rather bleak regressive future? I am concerned that it won’t be. We’ve seen Alex Salmond slap down John Mason for merely suggesting that an independent Scotland could raise the top rate of the tax but the First Minister gleefully backed Sir Fred Goodwin on taking over ABN Amro. We’ve seen rail fares rise in Scotland just as much as they scandalously have in England & Wales, and we are seeing worrying signs over an SNP approach to fiscal control.

Alex Salmond is making control of Corporation Taxes his party’s prime argument as it pushes for the full range of financial levels for Scotland. That would be good news if Scotland intended to hold Corporation Tax rates in place, or raise them even, rather than copy or undercut the reduction in rates that George Osborne is currently presiding over.

The other argument that the SNP is keen to make is that Scotland can still build a fortune off the back of the oil that sits under the North Sea, despite clear evidence that the already drilled oiled reserves that sit above ground is more than enough to get us by while we wean ourselves off the black stuff. It’s a dilemma for Scotland, for sure – make a fortune off the drilling and burning of oil that the world doesn’t need and certainly can’t take or leave the oil where it is and be poorer for it financially but morally better off?

It would be a shame if the normally pleasingly principled SNP were to abandon reason and logic as the referendum drew nearer, if a rationale of ‘why shouldn’t we burn our oil if everyone else is’ will hold sway.

On top of this even, we have the much-boasted Council Tax freeze that still has another four years to go, despite the pennies dropping across Scotland that this is a regressive move as it is the richest who save the most. How is that driving Scotland forwards? As Kezia Dugdale MSP quite reasonably asks the Scottish Government, on behalf of the 80,000 unemployed 18-24 year olds, where are the jobs?

In his Hugo Young lecture, Salmond promised Scotland would be a ‘progressive beacon’ but I don’t see how that can be equated with an oil burning, low tax economy, particularly against a potential backdrop of UK-US relations revolving around Romney, Cameron and Osborne.

Perhaps the only way for Scotland to wriggle out of this depressing destiny is to vote Yes to independence and then swiftly vote a truly social democratic, progressive Labour/Green coalition into place?