The two elections that I have been interested in this year have each thrown up interesting results. The UK, a country famed for not doing coalition politics, has resulted in a surprisingly successful pairing between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile Sweden, a country that is typically governed by a coalition of several parties, has for the first time in decades effectively ended up with a hung parliament.

This post combines factors and factions of both countries to consider one potential option for the left-of-centre in the UK – a Red-Green coalition, or a Progressive Alliance if you will.

The losing ‘half’ of Sweden in last week’s election was the Red-Green coalition but they have campaigned so steadfastly alongside each other that even the promise of Ministerial seats has not tempted the Greens into Government. In the UK coalition Government may well be here to stay so those currently making up the Opposition may have to find a more proactive approach to the new terrain that objecting from the sidelines strictly along party lines.

So, if a Red-Green coalition makes political sense in Sweden is there any credence to the argument that it makes political sense in the UK? If so, how would it work?

Well, assuming the AV referendum is either rejected by Westminster or ignored/rejected by the public, First Past the Post could see a dividing up of constituencies in a loose agreement between the Greens and Labour.

In return for (1) policy concessions, (2) Labour not fielding a candidate in Brighton Pavilion to safeguard Caroline Lucas and (3) perhaps not fielding candidates in Cambridge and other seats where Labour probably won’t win but the Greens are fighting to finish higher and higher, the Greens would agree to not field candidates in the vast majority of seats across the UK. The message would be that a vote for Labour is a de facto vote for the Greens and an upside would be that more targetted, intensive campaigns could be lodged in the Cambridges, the Oxfords, the Lewishams and the Norwich Souths.

A springboard to representation that helps keep the Conservatives out of power and helps speed up more Greens getting into Westminster.

Similar suggestions were raised before the May election this year with prominent environmentalists urging Greens to vote tactically, back the Lib Dems(!) or back Labour as the least worst option between the top two parties. A coalition is at least a more elegant solution to a last-gasp panic because with a week till voting it looks like the Tories are getting in.

Examples already exist and not just in Sweden. A Red-Green alliance ruled Germany from 1998 to 2005, the Socialist Left and Greens governed France from 1997 to 2002 and in Norway a Red-Green coalition has ruled since 2005, winning re-election in 2009. There are fewer examples in the UK with Leeds Council being the only example of a formal arrangement that I could find.

The benefit for Labour speaks for itself. In the last election, had the Green votes been added to the Labour vote, Gordon Brown would have taken eight seats off the Tories and one from the Lib Dems* (see bottom of post). That may not sound like much but there is every chance that a formal agreement would bring more jaded Greens out to vote and the green credentials that support from Caroline Lucas’ party would provide would mean large swathes of Lib Dem votes could well move to Labour at the next election, more so than is already on its way of course.

The combination of Green votes pushing Labour candidates over the line, a boost in turnout from environmentalists and Lib Dems switching sides could well prove decisive in what should prove to be a very close election in 2015.

No candidate in most constituencies may seem like a high price to pay from a Green perspective but Labour has more to offer and less to lose so the imbalance is unavoidable. The attraction of being able to directly shape Government policy must be appealing for Greens who for so long have been on the fringes of political debate and were one to suggest that such a coalition could never make a difference then it is worth noting that had UKIP votes been added to the Conservative votes in each constituency in May 2010 then Cameron would be enjoying a majority right now. I suspect UKIP would be more than happy with 1 MP and no Euro-friendly Lib Dems in Government but, well, they’ve missed their chance.

And therein lies the risk at brushing off this option too cheaply. Caroline Lucas losing Brighton Pavilion in 2015 (or whenever the next election will be) is a nightmare result for the Greens from where they are now. The momentum lost from being frozen out of Westminster just when Climate Change becomes irreversible would be very damaging indeed.

There’s no reason why compromise and progress cannot be realised simultaneously and why a merger of the left shouldn’t deliver green shoots and ripe red fruit for all involved.

* Constituencies that Labour would have won in May 2010 if they had also claimed the Green vote in each constituency:-

Brighton Kemptown (from the Conservatives)
Brighton Pavilion (of course)
Broxtowe (from the Conservatives)
Cardiff North (from the Conservatives)
Hendon (from the Conservatives)
Hove (from the Conservatives)
Lancaster & Fleetwood (from the Conservatives)
Norwich South (from the Liberal Democrats)
Stroud (from the Conservatives)
Waveney (from the Conservatives)