Well, well, well. The magical day has arrived. We won’t have another election until 2016 so for goodness sake enjoy yourselves. Mind you, the next Parliament may descend into a morass of indecision, fail to return a First Minister and we’ll be back at the polls this Summer but that’s unlikely, right…..? Hmmm

Anyway, I’ve borrowed Malc’s post to pull together my own predictions; mostly based on the polling data and the model that I have pulled together but also using a bit of dice-rolling from my expectations based on incumbents (e.g. Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, Edinburgh South) and also on some potential surprises (Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh West), not to mention some good old-fashioned ‘were you up for….’ moments (East Kilbride, Dumbarton).

I do think that the Lib Dems will not do as badly as the polls are predicting and I do think that the SNP’s numbers will tighten slightly so…. I couldn’t bring myself to predict Iain Gray losing East Lothian or Tories winning North East Fife but, well, here goes…….!

Central Scotland
Airdrie & Shotts – SNP (Alex Neil)
Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – Labour (Cathy Craigie)
East Kilbride – SNP (Linda Fabiani)
Falkirk East – Labour (Cathy Peattie)
Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)

List: 4 SNP (Jamie Hepburn, Christina McKelvie, Richard Lyle, Angus McDonald), 2 Labour (Siobhan McMahon, Mark Griffin), 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell). [Order elected: SNP CON SNP SNP LAB SNP LAB]

Glasgow
Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
Cathcart – SNP (James Dornan)
Kelvin – SNP (Sandra White)
Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)

List: 2 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson), 1 Lib Dem (Katy Gordon), 1 Labour (Hanzala Malik) and 2 Green (Patrick Harvie, Martha Wardrop) [Order elected: GRN SNP CON LD SNP LAB GRN]

Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)

List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 Lib Dem (Jamie Paterson), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrogor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green (Eleanor Scott) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB GRN CON LAB LD]

Lothian
Almond Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
Edinburgh Central – SNP (Marco Biagi)
Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
Edinburgh Southern – Lib Dem (Mike Rumbles)
Edinburgh Western – SNP (Colin Keir)
Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh – SNP (Colin Beattie)

List: 3 Labour (Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale, Neil Findlay), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 2 Greens (Alison Johnstone, Steve Burgess) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald) [Order elected: LAB GRN LAB IND CON LAB GRN]

Mid Scotland & Fife
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
Dunfermline – SNP (William Walker)
Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
North-East Fife – LD (Iain Smith)
Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
Stirling – SNP (Bruce Crawford)

List: 2 Labour (John Park, Claire Baker), 3 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith, Miles Briggs), 1 Lib Dem (Willie Rennie) and 1 Green (Mark Ruskell) [Order elected: CON LAB CON GRN LAB LD CON]

North-East Scotland
Aberdeen Central – SNP (Kevin Stewart)
Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
Aberdeenshire West – LD (Mike Rumbles)
Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)

List: 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald), 1 Lib Dem (Alison McInnes), 2 Conservative (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne) and 1 Green (Martin Ford) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LD LAB GRN]

South Scotland
Ayr – Con (John Scott)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley – SNP (Adam Ingram)
Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
Dumfriesshire – Lab (Elaine Murray)
East Lothian – Lab (Iain Gray)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
Galloway & West Dumfries – SNP (Aileen McLeod)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – SNP (Willie Coffey)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)

List: 3 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graeme Pearson, Marie Rooney), 2 Conservative (Derek Brownlee, Peter Duncan) and 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume), Green (Alis Ballance) [Order elected: LAB LD CON LAB GRN LAB CON]

West Scotland
Clydebank & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
Eastwood – Con (Jackson Carlaw)
Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden – Lab (David Whitton)

List: 3 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Fiona McLeod), 1 Green (Steen Parish), 2 Conservative (Annabel Goldie, Maurice Golden) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie) [Order elected: SNP CON LD SNP GRN SNP CON]

So, full results would be:

SNP – 41/11 = 52
Labour – 23/18 = 41
Conservative – 4/13 = 17
Lib Dems – 5/5 = 10
Greens – 0/8 = 8
Margo – 0/1 = 1

The only two-party coalition would be an SNP/Tory Government which is interesting and also, of course, highly unlikely.

My dream scenario of an SNP/Green is 5 seats short but, of course, there are Labour-held seats in the above that could fall to the Nats (and SNP-held seats that could fall to Labour). My hope is that the SNP regional vote will hold up but not to the detriment of the Greens, optimistic given that I have the Greens taking 3 of the 8 ‘squeaky bum’ 7th spots in the regions.

Permutations, combinations and deliberations. I could spend all night considering them, but we’ve only got about 12 hours until we start to find out what the political lay of the land for the next 5 years will be.

(And to think only a few weeks ago I was saying Kenny MacAskill would lose Edinburgh Eastern…..!)