The following isn’t based on opinion polls… its my own opinion.  I’ve used some numbers, some intuition and some outrageous guesswork to come to the following conclusion.  By all means, rip apart my outcomes – we’ll only have to wait a day to see how close/ completely wrong I am.  But it is worth mentioning again – there’s no real methodology here.  It’s just one person’s (kind of educated) guess of how we’ll see Holyrood looking next week.

Central Scotland
Airdrie & Shotts – SNP (Alex Neil)
Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – SNP (Jamie Hepburn)
East Kilbride – Labour (Andy Kerr)
Falkirk East – Labour (Cathy Peattie)
Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)

List: 4 SNP (Linda Fabiani, Christina McKelvie, Richard Lyle, Angus McDonald), 1 Labour (Siobhan McMahon), 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell) and 1 Green (Kirsten Robb). [Order elected: SNP CON SNP SNP LAB SNP GRN]

Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
Cathcart – Lab (Charlie Gordon)
Kelvin – Lab (Pauline McNeill)
Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)

List:  5 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris, Sandra White, Sid Khan, James Dornan), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson) and 1 Green (Patrick Harvie) [Order elected: SNP SNP SNP CON SNP GRN SNP]

Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)

List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 SNP (John Finnie), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrogor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green (Eleanor Scott) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LAB GRN SNP]

Almond Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
Edinburgh Central – Lab (Sarah Boyack)
Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
Edinburgh Southern – Lab (Paul Godzik)
Edinburgh Western – LD (Margaret Smith)
Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh – Lab (Bernard Hopkins)

List: 3 SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville, George Kerevan, Colin Beattie),  1 Lib Dem (Alex Cole-Hamilton), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 1 Green (Alison Johnstone) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald) [Order elected: GRN IND SNP CON SNP LD SNP]

Mid Scotland & Fife
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
Dunfermline – Lab (Alex Rowley)
Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
North-East Fife – LD (Iain Smith)
Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
Stirling – SNP (Bruce Crawford)

List: 1 Labour (John Park), 2 SNP (Annabelle Ewing, Douglas Chapman), 3 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith, Miles Briggs) and 1 Green (Mark Ruskell) [Order elected: CON CON LAB SNP SNP GRN CON]

North-East Scotland
Aberdeen Central – SNP (Kevin Stewart)
Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
Aberdeenshire West – LD (Mike Rumbles)
Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)

List: 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald), 1 Lib Dem (Alison McInnes), 2 Conservative (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne) and 1 Green (Martin Ford) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LAB LD GRN]

South Scotland
Ayr – Con (John Scott)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley – Lab (Richard Leonard)
Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
Dumfriesshire – Lab (Elaine Murray)
East Lothian – Lab (Iain Gray)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
Galloway & West Dumfries – Con (Alex Fergusson)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – SNP (Willie Coffey)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)

List: 3 SNP (Adam Ingram, Joan McAlpine, Aileen McLeod), 2 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graeme Pearson), 1 Conservative (Derek Brownlee) and 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume) [Order elected: LD SNP LAB SNP CON LAB SNP]

West Scotland
Clydebank & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
Eastwood – Con (Jackson Carlaw)
Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden – Lab (David Whitton)

List: 3 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Fiona McLeod), 1 Lab (Mary Fee), 2 Conservative (Annabel Goldie, Maurice Golden) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie) [Order elected: SNP CON SNP LD SNP CON LAB]

So, my 2011-2016 Holyrood Parliament would look like this:

And it would have the following regional breakdown:


And since we discussed it previously, should I be right about the election, there will be 45 female MSPs.  Our original projections – based on previous polls – made that figure 47, and we found a way for that to rise to 51 if seats went a particular way.  However, just with the way the predictions have gone, I make it 45 – which is still an increase on 2007 (albeit a minor one).

Thus – SNP minority, with likely support from the Conservatives on issue by issue basis seems to be what I think will happen.  But these are just my musings – and you’ll get some more later on – but what do you think?