Archive for category Holyrood

The Independence Referendum: Floating Voters or Flighty Voters?

photo by comedy_nose

A guest today from Dr Paul Cairney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Head of Department of Politics and International Relations at Aberdeen University.

Say what you like about Lord Ashcroft, but he gets things done with money. While most of us might have been muttering under our breaths about the leading nature of the SNP Government’s proposed independence referendum question, Ashcroft just spent some of his money trying to show how leading it was. His comparison of three questions shows that the wording of the question does seem to have an effect on responses. While 41% agreed that ‘Scotland should be an independent country’ when merely asked to agree, 39% agree when invited to agree or disagree. That figure reduces further to 33% pro-independence when people were asked ‘Should Scotland become an independent country or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?’ (oddly, there were no ‘undecideds’ in these polls, so the remaining respondents go down as ‘no’ votes). We have always known that there would be this kind of effect. In fact, it was more marked when the first SNP Government produced the more convoluted question ‘I agree [I do not agree] that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state’. This wording is one of the few to produce a plurality in favour, presumably because many people will feel that they are not yet being asked to choose (although the latest poll takes us from a slim lead for ‘agree’ back to a slim lead for ‘disagree’). In most other cases, and at most other times, a different wording generally produces a lead for the ‘no’ vote (see the 14-plus different ways to ask the question in chapter 7 here; compare the survey approach with Susan Condor’s work (on English attitudes to change in Scotland), which just asks people what they think – it suggests that they care much less about these issues than forced choice surveys suggest).

The usual conclusion is that we should look at longer term trends, to see if the same question shows more or less support for constitutional change over time. For example, support for independence has, for decades, been about one-third to two-fifths when people are given the option of choosing to retain or extend devolution instead. It may fluctuate, and that fluctuation may be a good story for the papers, but the trends are fairly clear. This is not the argument I want to pursue here. Rather, I think we should focus more on the potential for fluctuation. The referendum will be held on a particular day in a particular context after a particular campaign. Therefore, while the trends will give us a broad idea of public attitudes, they will not tell us what will happen if we witness a ‘perfect storm’ of events that produces a particular attitude on a particular day. I am not suggesting that people will radically reverse their views at a moment’s notice. Rather, I am suggesting one or more of four things. First, some people will be torn between the options and, if not given the comfort of further devolution as a choice, will not know what to do. Second, some people will have a clear idea of what they want, but without doing much soul searching to come to that conclusion. Third, some people will base their decision on a very small amount of information. Fourth, some people will get that information from biased sources and might see things differently if subject to a competing view. Overall, if many people are unsure, or their certainty is based on limited and biased information, it may be possible for a strong campaign – combined with key events – to change people’s minds for a little while. The best example for me so far was the Conservative Government gambit on giving permission to hold the referendum in 18 months. This sort of nonsense could produce all sorts of emotional reactions in the most calculating or ambivalent people.

I want to give this issue more thought than Lord Ashcroft, but I have less money. So, with my colleagues in psychology and physics at Aberdeen, I am developing an online project that probes people’s views about independence and examines how likely it is that those views will change when they are presented with new (or newly framed and sourced) arguments. We will gauge people’s existing knowledge and searches for information, then present them with the chance to agree or disagree with new arguments as presented by different people (on the assumption that they will react differently to arguments presented by, say, Alex Salmond or George Osborne). I need your help. I have a decent idea of the key arguments made about independence so far, and can do a trawl of the papers to make sure. However, I am sure that I have not heard them all. Can you think of pro- or anti- devolution arguments that would not fit into these broad categories (for example, I am not sure where to place the idea that the SNP’s image of governing competence will/ will not affect support for independence)? Or, can you think of some unusual examples in each category?

Economic – e.g. an independent Scotland could not have bailed out the RBS/ the Scottish Government would have avoided the catastrophe; an independent Scottish Government can tailor taxes and growth strategies to Scotland; businesses are happy/ will leave in droves; Scots will be better/ worse off in an independent Scotland

Economic deficits and North Sea Oil – Scotland relies on UK subsidies; the UK relies on Scottish oil

The State – Scotland will be a high tax, high spending country; the Scottish Government will reduce taxes to promote growth

European Union – someone will veto Scotland’s EU membership; we can decide whether or not we want to join; we will have to negotiate our entry or exit; we will have a larger or smaller voice in the EU

The Euro – we will have to join it; we can keep the pound until we choose to join it

Defence – will radically change/ not change Scotland’s role regarding the armed forces and nuclear question; Scotland will lose soldiers and defence contracts

Scotland and the UK – we will have to rebuild Hadrian’s wall and present passports at the border; key relationships will not change

Social attitudes – more Scottish than British? Devolution as a compromise between Scottishness and Britishness? People want/ do not want independence or more powers

History – Scotland as a stateless nation which demands self-government; the UK as a stronger, united country

Constitutional Issues – independence will solve the ‘English question’; the English should have their say; a referendum in Scotland has no legal authority; Scotland will keep the Queen as head of state

International affairs – we will have a small international voice; we will have to recruit a new generation of diplomats

Motions of the Week – It’s good to talk (but better to do)

This week’s Motion of the Week is a two-parter and is a case of the good and the bad, the do-ers vs the talkers.

First up is Sarah Boyack, celebrating the excellent Remade in Edinburgh project:

Motion S4M-01967: Sarah Boyack, Lothian, Scottish Labour, Date Lodged: 07/02/2012
Remade in Edinburgh

That the Parliament welcomes the work of the Remade in Edinburgh project; understands that the project provides weekly drop-in sessions that give people new skills to repair and reuse items such as clothes and computers; further notes that the project promotes a zero-waste agenda as an alternative to a culture of disposable items by diverting household items from landfill; supports the project’s wider plan to create a reuse and repair centre in central Edinburgh, which, it understands, would house a series of social enterprises to repair and reuse a range of household items; notes that a similar project in Brixton was gifted disused garage space by the local authority; urges the City of Edinburgh Council to provide similar support to create local jobs and training opportunities in reuse and repair, and wishes the project well in continuing to expand its offering to the people of Edinburgh.

Supported by: Jackie Baillie, Neil Findlay, John Pentland, Anne McTaggart, Patricia Ferguson, Iain Gray, Mike MacKenzie, Sandra White, Margaret Burgess, James Kelly, Colin Beattie, Neil Bibby, Hugh Henry, Jamie Hepburn, David Torrance, Elaine Murray

A group of people have come together to form a project that combines recycling and sustainability with job creation and boosting Edinburgh’s economy. A faultless motion focussed on a faultless effort.

We are moving away from the concept of buying products that are built to last. If a mobile phone goes beyond your two year contract then you are considered lucky and if you haven’t upgraded your TV to blue-ray, HD, built-in-freeview then you’re behind the curve. Inflating that GDP up to the supposedly sustainable 2-3% seems like a fools errand to me when we can just keep a hold of the assets that still have a value to them rather than continue the accelerating trend of buy, briefly use, throw out.

So good on Remade; proactive positivity.

And then we have the talkers…

Motion S4M-01975: Neil Findlay, Lothian, Scottish Labour, Date Lodged: 07/02/2012
West Lothian College Stakeholders’ Meeting

That the Parliament congratulates West Lothian College on hosting what it considers a successful meeting of 70 or so concerned stakeholders, including students, staff, management, trade unions, business leaders and some locally elected representatives, at the college on 6 February 2012; commends West Lothian Trades Council for prompting the meeting; shares the concerns of West Lothian Trades Council, in particular its concern at funding cuts across the further education sector; considers that it was the unanimous feeling of the attendees that West Lothian College should be allowed to stand as a region on its own, and notes the concerns expressed that changes to college structures and delivery models within the regionalisation process will be a hollow process should West Lothian College, and indeed, other colleges, have their capability and capacity reduced as a consequence of significant decreases in their funding.

Supported by: Mary Fee, Drew Smith, Jackie Baillie, Anne McTaggart, Hugh Henry, Patricia Ferguson

What Neil seems to be saying here is – ‘Hooray, we had a meeting!’. Well bully for you son.

Don’t get me wrong, I get that college funding is important and I get that training people is the next best thing to employing them in many situations but an entire parliamentary motion just because 70 people sat down and had a chat? I think MSPs should be patting themselves on the back for a little more than that.

Women in the boardroom

Emma Ritch works for Close the Gap, and is interested in gender and the labour market, economics, public policy, and politics. (Twitter: @emmaritch)

(Image by Lars Plougmann)

The issue of women in the boardroom, one of the threads of the never-ending public conversation about women, work, and income, has come to the fore of late. Placed firmly on the agenda by the Davies report, it is the topic of a flurry of conferences, meetings, seminars and salons, scheduled to coincide with International Women’s Day on March 8. It is also, along with women’s entrepreneurship, one of the topics at the Northern Future Forum in Stockholm, at which David Cameron has provoked some disquiet by appearing to suggest that he would not rule out quotas for women in the boardroom, should the UK business community not be able to increase women’s representation “by other means”.

Downing Street has subsequently walked this back, but Mr Cameron may be overtaken by events. The European Commission has a review planned next month, which will look at the impact of voluntary approaches to appointing more women into non-executive directorships, including under its own ‘Women on the Board Pledge for Europe’. It has declared its intent to impose quotas if it finds that progress has stalled or reversed, and the European Parliament has signalled its own receptiveness to this in the form of a non-binding resolution on Women and Business Leadership.

Women do have something to bring to the boardroom. Catalyst, pre-eminent researchers of women and business, has found a clear link between board-level gender diversity and a company’s financial performance. Examples abound of companies, like Nike, who have parlayed the knowledge of female executives into profitable new markets and products targeted at women mindful of the fact that women now make 80 per cent of consumer purchases in the developed world.

The foregrounding of the issue of women in the executive suite, though, does rest on the idea that it is possible to dismantle the oak-panelled ceiling without considering what happens underneath it. Many of the business representatives responding to Mr Cameron’s muted endorsement for quotas have spoken of the boardroom as the apogee of a ‘meritocracy’. Although the dearth of women around the table is not because women lack talent, ambition, or knowledge, the business spokespeople are right in that the boardroom reflects, and also inspires, what happens outside its doors. Focusing on access to non-executive and executive directorships runs the risk of removing the work experience of the most senior woman from its context.

Women have different working lives to men, principally because our domestic lives are so different. The pay gap exists, in part, because of the additional responsibility we bear for childcare and other reproductive labour. It also reflects the fact that we find ourselves clustered into different types of work, chiefly those that pay the least, and that discrimination lingers on in pay systems long after legislation was enacted to remove it.

The roots of the attitudes that shape our working lives are deep. From an early age, children have perceptions about what types of work, and what types of attributes align with being male and female. These attitudes can be traced through to those of the university admissions staff member, the manager dividing the bonus pot, the executive recruiter. Some of this reductive thinking even finds its way into the programmes that attempt to challenge sexism in the City. Women are deficient, some of the narratives go, and must cast aside self-deprecation and push themselves forward, be more self-confident, become tougher negotiators. Even the supposed compliments are laden with stereotypes: women would not have allowed the banking crisis, because they are so risk-averse.

Catalyst have found evidence that companies with a larger proportion of female board members tend to see increases in the number of women serving as senior executives, or in promoted posts. It seems that appointing women as non-executive directors sends a signal to a company’s workforce that it rewards women’s aspirations. Most people, regardless of gender, will not end up serving as a director of a FTSE 100 company, but this is one of the reasons why we should care who does.

The leaders of our corporations shape society in a way that is becoming more transparent in our current economic circumstances, but it is not only the most senior women who have their aspirations stifled, and their talents underutilised and undervalued. Among other things, and against a backdrop of redundancies and punitive welfare reform, we need to work out how to fund a sustainable childcare system, create enough part-time roles to meet demand, and encourage a more even division of domestic labour. Enabling women to take part in the economic life of the nation means turning our collective will to resolving a number of wicked problems; gender parity in the boardroom is only one piece of the jigsaw.

The Angus Loughran memorial budget post

Things have changed a little since the last Holyrood budget. The SNP have a majority of seats so don’t need to negotiate which has sucked out a lot of the drama of building coalitions with the other parties, usually Tories and the Greens, has gone – this bill will pass. Which is a shame, because I thought that was one of the best bits of Holyrood and was a higher plane of politics than we usually get. Oh well.

Still, to be fair to John Swinney he has been trying to get cross party support and has been aided in this by the additional hundred million or so of Barnett consequentials, two thirds of which is so far unallocated, which has given him a bit of elbow room.

It’s less likely to be huge amounts of largesse and more that some areas will be cut less far – colleges being the current high profile example all the opposition parties are concentrating on. They’d had their funding cut some seventy million (while universities had their funding increased by around twice that) so it’s unlikely that we’ll see that entirely reversed but I’d imagine the cut to student support and some of the teaching grant cuts reversed.

Other than that? Bit more speculative. Some specific local government programs might get a bit as there’s some elections coming up. Housing’s already had some and might get some more, which would be good.

Given nobody has, AFAIK, submitted any amendments this time round what would you change? Comments please and remember – your fantasy budget amendment has to balance.

(Angus Loughran isn’t dead)

A Tale of Two Motions of the Week


First up is Patrick Harvie. He’s not very happy with the Dear Green Place’s… uhmm… Greenness.

Motion S4M-01856.1: Patrick Harvie, Glasgow, Scottish Green Party, Date Lodged: 31/01/2012

Glasgow’s Bid to Become First European Green Capital in the UK

As an amendment to motion S4M-01856 in the name of Drew Smith (Glasgow’s Bid to Become First European Green Capital in the UK), leave out from “a boost” to end and insert “a bizarre outcome for a city with persistent and severe problems of air pollution, congestion, low recycling rates, poor quality public transport and degraded public space, and in which local government policies have continually failed to address these problems, and calls on Glasgow City Council to focus on transformation of its own track record on environmental action instead of what is considered wasting its time on attempting to win undeserved recognition for its limited efforts to date.”

Fair enough. Like Edinburgh, Glasgow has pretty appalling air pollution, Union St’s a horror show and he’s calling them on it. A clear, concise and unambiguous motion directly addressing an important issue. A (recycled) Gold star.

That wasn’t the only motion concerning Glasgow this week. Sadly, this second one isn’t as good. Or good. Or in possession of any redeeming feature what so ever.

Motion S4M-01921: Liam McArthur, Orkney Islands, Scottish Liberal Democrats, Date Lodged: 02/02/2012

Hands off Groundskeeper Willie 

That the Parliament notes that it has been confirmed that Groundskeeper Willie of The Simpsons fame hails from Kirkwall, Orkney; understands that the revelation is made in an episode entitled The Daughter Also Rises, to be broadcast in America on 12 February 2012, where Willie confides in Bart that his father was a ‘doonie’ and his mother was an ‘uppie’, in reference to the two teams in the world-famous ‘Ba game’; understands how the tension created by this modern day version of Capulets and Montagues tore his family apart but welcomes the fact that the long-running debate over Willie’s heritage is now at an end, and calls on Glasgow City Council to renounce its claim to Orkney’s Groundskeeper Willie as a son of that fair city.

Sweet mercy. This is what our Parliament has come to? Celebrating the birth place of a fictional character? The funny yellowy party that isn’t as popular as it used to be commenting on a funny yellow skinned character in a show that isn’t as popular as it used to be? Write out “I must not submit pointless motions about fictional characters to Parliament” a hundred times and don’t do it again.