After I wrote this post rounding up our “Region Watch” series, I copped a bit of flak on Twitter for my projections of female representation at Holyrood after May’s election.  Apparently I was too positive.  I actually spotted I’d made a mistake, and the numbers we projected would make 47 female MSPs and not 46 (as I said in the post).  Which would make me even more positive.  Cue even more scepticism I imagine.  So I thought I’d delve into the numbers a bit more.  Obviously, this is subject to the usual caveats surrounding opinion polls – so keep that in mind.

First, a bit of background.

In 1999, there were 48 female MSPs (37.2%).  That rose to 51 (39.5%) in 2003 before taking a dramatic tumble to 43 – 33.3% – in 2007.  With the passing of the SNP’s Bashir Ahmad – the only (EDIT ethnic-minority) “non-white” MSP Holyrood has seen – and his replacement as an MSP by Anne McLaughlin, the total at Holyrood’s dissolution stood at 44 (34.1%).  For more analysis and division by party, see this article in Scottish Affairs (pdf).  50% of the seats at Holyrood is, for the sake of clarity, 65.

And so to 2011.  The Guardian reports that only 28% of all candidates for the election in May will be women which, according to both The Hansard Society and the Centre for Women and Democracy, means there will be fewer women elected to Holyrood than in 2007.  And yet, from our analysis (and by our, I mean Jeff and I – James and Kate should be exonerated from any of the following – though Kate ran numbers previously and ended up with 43) we have a rise – a small one, but a rise nonetheless – in female representation, from the 43 women elected in 2007 to 47 now.

Here’s where we’ve projected them to come from:

Highlands & Islands (3)
0 constituencies – which isn’t a surprise, since most have never had a female MP never mind a female MSP
3 list MSPs: Rhoda Grant (Lab – seat #2), Eleanor Scott (Grn – #4) and Mary Scanlon (Con – #5)

North-East Scotland (5)
1 constituency: Shona Robison (SNP – Dundee City East)
4 list: Jenny Marra(Lab – #3) Nanette Milne (Con -#4) Lesley McMahon (Lab – #5) Maureen Watt (SNP – #6)

Lothian (8)
3 constituencies: Sarah Boyack (Lab – Edin Central), Margaret Smith (LD – Edin West), Mary Mulligan (Lab – Linlithgow)
5 list: Fiona Hyslop (SNP #2) Shirley-Anne Somerville (SNP #3) Alison Johnstone (Grn #4) Margo MacDonald (Ind #5) Angela Constance (SNP #6)

Mid-Scotland & Fife (7)
4 constituencies: Helen Eadie (Lab – Cowdenbeath), Marlyn Livingstone (Lab – Kircaldy), Tricia Marwick (SNP – Mid-Fife & Glenrothes), Roseanna Cunningham (SNP – Perthshire South & Kinross-shire)
3 list: Elizabeth Smith (Con #2) Claire Baker (Lab #4) Annabelle Ewing (SNP #7)

West Scotland (4)
2 constituencies: Irene Oldfather (Lab – Cunninghame South), Jackie Baillie (Lab – Dumbarton)
2 list: Annabel Goldie (Con #2) Fiona McLeod (SNP #5)

Central Scotland (7)
3 constituencies: Elaine Smith (Lab – Coatbridge & Chryston), Cathy Craigie (Lab – Cumbernauld & Kilsyth), Cathy Peattie (Lab – Falkirk East)
4 list: Linda Fabiani (SNP #2) Margaret Mitchell (Con #3) Siobhan McMahon (Lab #5) Christina McKelvie (SNP #6)

South Scotland (7)
3 constituencies: Karen Gillon (Lab - Clydesdale), Gillian Dykes (Con – Dumfriesshire), Christine Grahame (SNP – Tweeddale & Lauderdale)
4 list: Aileen Campbell (SNP #1), Elaine Murray (Lab #2), Claudia Beamish (Lab #5), Joan McAlpine (SNP #6)

Glasgow (6)
4 constituencies: Pauline McNeill (Lab – Kelvin), Patricia Ferguson (Lab – Maryhill & Springburn), Johann Lamont (Lab – Pollock), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP – Southside)
2 list: Sandra White (SNP #3) Ruth Davidson (Con #4)

That makes 47 – and you can see the regional variations above without the need for me to point out the glaringly obvious bias in favour of male MSPs in H&I and West.  Its perhaps not fair to single them out, since no region has a particularly good record here.  The exception is perhaps Lothian, where 50% of the MSPs returned in our analysis would be women (and see below for potential increase).

Of course there could be more or there could be fewer than I’ve outlined above.  A lot of the list seats (where the majority of the female candidates are) depend on the outcome of some marginal seats – and the outcome of those depends entirely on how people vote on the day.  Here’s a few that might have an impact:

Western Isles – Jeff projected Donald Crichton would win this for Labour over the SNP’s Alasdair Allan.  I think he’s wrong – but in the final party mark-up, it doesn’t matter, since Labour would take a list seat at the SNP’s expense.  But on gender, it does, since next on Labour’s list is a woman – Linda Stewart – which would add one to the tally above.

Aberdeenshire South & North Kincardine – I went for John Sleigh of the Lib Dems here, but if the SNP’s Maureen Watt can win it, that’d free up a list seat for the Lib Dems – which would go to Alison McInnes.  Add one more (for best case scenario).

Almond Valley – If Angela Constance won here (or, less likely but still plausible, if Shirley-Anne Somerville won in Edinburgh Northern & Leith) she would beat out a male Labour candidate.  Labour would likely win a list seat, replacing their male constituency winner with a female list MSP (Kezia Dugdale).

Airdrie & Shotts – Alex Neil was projected to pick this up for the SNP, but if Karen Whitefield held on, Alex Neil would be returned on the list, with Labour losing a list seat held by a male.  So there’s potential here for a net female gain as well.

If all four of those go against our projections, then we could be looking at 51 female MSPs, taking us back up to 2003 levels (which, granted, is still only 39.5% of the seats).  However, I can find one example of it going the other way:

South of Scotland – Two female candidates fighting out Dumfriesshire, which is notionally Conservative.  If they hold on (as we currently project) then Gillian Dykes is the constituency MSP and her opponent, Elaine Murray, is returned on the list.  If the positions are reversed in Dumfriesshire, the Conservatives do win the list seat to compensate for their constituency loss, but the seat is taken not by Gillian Dykes but by Derek Brownlee – which would mean a net -1 for women at Holyrood.

It is a complex business working this out, and fine margins exist everywhere.  With the exceptions of Sarah Boyack, whose constituency is notionally Lib Dem, Nicola Sturgeon (notionally Labour seat), Christine Grahame, who has notionally inherited the seat from the Lib Dems, and the aforementioned Dumfriesshire seat, most of the seats which currently have female MSPs are relatively safe.  Thus I expect most of those will be returned to Holyrood – which means it all comes down to the list as to whether more or fewer female MSPs than 2007 are returned.

While this is nowhere near the parity expected of the “new politics” in 1999 (where has that disappeared to, by the way?) nor anything to get excited about, I’m more optimistic than the Guardian and others about the outcome in this respect.  And I never thought the words “Malc” and “optimistic” actually went in the same sentence.

Or does it?

Each of the 5 parties with representatives at Holyrood now have (at least) one party election broadcast in the public domain.  There are five different messages here, and several different styles. But what do we really get from each of them? Well let’s try to find something positive and something negative with each of them.

SNP (5 April)

The SNP’s “Monty Python” video is an original-ish idea, its funny and it taps into people’s psyche when it comes to elections – the “why bother, what have they ever done for us” mentality. On the other hand, there’s a kind of “that’s what we got in the last election – what are you going to give us this time around?” notion as well.

Scottish Labour (6 April)

(I can’t find Labour’s latest PEB on YouTube or on the party’s website to embed here, but you can see the video of it on the BBC website here).

Labour’s “Iain Gray focus piece” is more about introducing the man who might be First Minister than any Labour policies, and while the tactic is probably right – and certainly warranted – when you compare it with Welsh Labour’s video which is based on the same format, Carwyn Jones shows Iain Gray how it should be done. The idea of talking about your family and using that as your frame of reference for politics works… but I’m not sure Iain Gray sells it right.

Scottish Conservative (7 April)

The Conservative video uses the same principle – leader Annabel Goldie talking to camera, touting the achievements of the Scottish Tories during the last session of parliament, pointing out that it was only with their support that certain measures (Council Tax freeze, small business bonus, 1,000 police officers…) were passed. I expect this message will be the central theme to their campaign. However, the format – with the leader shown at home, out rambling, birdwatching – is tired (indeed, its just about the same idea Labour have had) and I feel like I’ve seen this PEB a million times before.

Scottish Liberal Democrat (8 April)

The Lib Dems video is, for me, the most bizarre. Granted, it is certainly the most focused on a single issue (stopping the centralisation of police forces) which means you get a bit more information on that issue… but it just seems a bit small. Where do the Lib Dems stand on other things? What is their vision for Scotland? Does this issue really warrant the 2 minutes of my time over everything else? Also, the style is a bit weird. It seems to me like a news report – I’m expecting to hear “Tavish Scott, Reporting Scotland, standing beside a police car” at the end. And surely you re-shoot the bits where the leaflet gets blown about a bit, no?

Scottish Greens (11 April)

And the Greens – the concept is good here. Let’s have as many different people, different voices, different faces, from all over Scotland giving one message: “we’re using our second vote to vote Green because…” Its a simple message, delivered simply and effectively. However, each of the previous four parties utilise their leader – and I think the Greens could have given a bit more public recognition if they’d had one of their more prominent figures, Patrick Harvie or Eleanor Scott, or even Martin Ford, involved in the video. Ordinary folk work to a point – but they aren’t the ones standing for election.

So – is there value in party election broadcasts? Any more so than leaflets? No idea. Gives me something to critique though…

UPDATE:
On a vaguely-related note.  I’m looking to put together a post with some folks views on why they are voting a particular way in May.  Hopefully, I’ll get around 9 or 10 – and then we can have a debate around the issues arising out of that.  I’m not looking for much – 100 words or so – setting out a positive case why you’ll be voting for X in May.  Anyone interested – drop me an email or tweet, or a comment and we’ll set it up.  Cheers.

We now have a full slate of Scottish regions accounted for through our Region Watch series.  You can see each of the individual posts by clicking on the links below:

Highlands & Islands
North East Scotland
Lothians
Mid-Scotland & Fife
West Scotland
Central Scotland
South Scotland
Glasgow

The astute among you will probably have taken note of our predictions in each region and know the overall scores on the doors.  To pull it all together, the regional results have been collated in the image below:

Which makes the total seats:

Also, information I had noted throughout on the split of candidates between men and women, and between new and returning MSPs.  With our analysis, I make it that we’re currently projecting 46 female MSPs (35%) which is a marginal increase on the previous session.  We’d also see 34 new faces in Holyrood (26%) which, given we had 20 MSPs standing down, shouldn’t be a big shock – but it will be interesting to see how having a quarter of all MSPs feeling their way into the job will play out.

Anyway – back to the baseline numbers.  From the figures we’ve projected (and please treat this as you would any opinion poll, subject to the usual caveats, questioning of methodology, scepticism of the outcomes etc) we’d have Labour up 4 seats, the SNP down 1, the Conservatives up 1, the Lib Dems down 5, the Greens up 1 and Margo returning, so no change on the Independent figure.  Which, on the face of it is minimal change from 2007 – Labour winning back their position as Scotland’s largest party and a marked decline in the Lib Dem vote having an impact on their outcome in seats.  Note also that the Lib Dem representation in West and South is limited to 1 list seat, and they are wiped out in both Central and Glasgow on these figures – the first time in the devolution period that one of the “big four” would fail to return at least 1 MSP in each of the 8 electoral regions.

For outcomes, we’d likely be looking at minority government, since there would only be potential for two winning coalitions: Lab-SNP (96) and Lab-Con (68).  SNP-Con, totalling 64, might be workable given we need a Presiding Officer from somewhere, but it would be precarious.  And unless either the Conservatives (more likely, though I wouldn’t say odds on) or the Lib Dems voted for Alex Salmond in the First Ministerial vote, that minority government would be Labour run… though how long it would last is anybody’s guess.  Mine is that Labour wouldn’t get the same kind of dispensation from their opposition as the SNP got to run the last government since at Westminster they are overtly hostile to the two governing parties there. (Jeff addition:- One point to make here is that Labour seats exceed SNP + Greens together which could prove crucial as the post-election wrangling gets underway, though if I’d given that 7th Glasgow seat to the SNP, an SNP/Green coalition would be ahead by 1 seat, assuming (amongst other things) that Lib Dems and Tories would abstain).

In the coming weeks, we’ll try to sharpen up our analysis, look for the (massive!) holes in our local knowledge, perhaps change around a few seats and see how close we get to the final outcome.  In the meantime, knock yourselves out with working out who will form the next government!