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Better Nation

An air of resignation.

May 31

Posted by James in Holyrood, Parties | 18 Comments

Malcolm ChisholmThere are some who have touted Malcolm Chisholm as a possible Labour leader. I personally wasn’t convinced – the party’s remaining senior MSPs still hold a number of sins against him, including defending the Megrahi decision and voting for minimum pricing – but his reputation as a serial resigner from things won’t be helped by his decision today to leave the Labour front bench less than two weeks after taking the education brief. It doesn’t help Labour look like a steady ship either.

I like Malcolm, and I was personally very pleased he won his seat earlier in the month, but without any notable issue of principle this will come over as flakey to say the least. In December 1997 he was first out from the Blair Government over cuts to child benefit, in 2006 it was Trident, then in 2008 he left again – without an issue that time either.

Surely the next LOLITSP, whoever he or she is, won’t offer him another chance to resign.

UPDATE (from Kate).

It would appear that Malcolm Chisholm resigned his shadow Cabinet portfolio because he wanted to be Labour’s nominee for Convenorship of the health committee.  The Labour group (leadership?) wouldn’t wear it and so he kicked his baw away and walked off the pitch.  No doubt throwing a contemptuous look at his bench in the process.  Though he’s not quite thrown his jersey at their feet in disgust – yet.

There’s no denying it’s an odd one.  Yes, he does look increasingly like a serial resigner.  And as some have suggested, we do appear to have two independent MSPs by default.  Nowt wrong with that frankly.

But curiously, if he wanted a go at a big convenorship, why accept a shadow portfolio in the first place?  Or maybe at the time, there was no indication that Labour would get health, an area of great interest to Chisholm, and a seat on Labour’s front-bench seemed like a perfectly acceptable second best option.

James is right to point the finger at Labour too, still demonstrating a complete lack of strategic thinking.  Malcolm Chisholm was always going to be a better bet for a convenorship in terms of his skills, knowledge and expertise, than a ministerial brief which he had not engaged in before.  Whereas many were surprised to see Ken Macintosh kicked out into the long grass of culture – though his previous employment history here made an obvious two-dimensional match.  No, Labour still clearly has a lot of work to do to get its act together.  Surely, if it was going to bid for the health committee, it should have borne Chisholm in mind for the post?

We probably have witnessed the end of Chisholm’s hopes for a starring role in Holyrood in the next five years.  His group is highly unlikely to support his wish to be the next health committee convenor – unless it is *in* on the resignation and is prepared to stomach more chatter about their inability to be effectual at any level (though of course it will be tomorrow’s chip papers).  Realistically, it is probably his own decision and anonymity on the backbenches beckons for the next five years.

Chisholm’s only hope is that the SNP are happy to indulge in a little mischief-making and nominate and vote for him as convenor.  It would annoy Labour no end and would ensure such an important committee had a big name convenor.  And not one who would automatically play the partisan card on every issue.  In fact, they might find a convenor supporting many of their policies and bills, if previous performance can be relied upon.  Moreover, it would answer charges, currently piling up, of the First Minister’s talk of a consensual approach being little more than hot air.

If the SNP has any sense, a little magnanimity might go a long way on this occasion.

A wee project for Better Nation.

May 30

Posted by James in Elections, Holyrood, Housekeeping | 42 Comments

Holyrood's chamberAs electoral stats wonks, it’s annoyed all four of us that there isn’t a decent single point of information about Scottish election results. The broadcasters’ pages aren’t terribly usable, although the BBC’s maps are nice, the Wikipedia pages are good but not purpose-built, and dear old alba.org.uk is a tad partisan, plays annoying sound files, and doesn’t have the 2011 results.

So, we thought (OK, I thought, before I twisted my colleagues’ arms) Better Nation could attempt to fill the gap, and as a result you can see a wee addition to the navigation above. It’s been a fair bit of work over the evenings and weekends, and we should also give proper thanks to Aaron (blog, twitter), who helped process some of the tables.

And now it’s ready. More accurately, it’s in beta testing now. You will find errors (honestly, there’ll be the odd + for a -, people’s names spelt wrong, all sorts, we’re sure - please do tell us in the comments to this post and we’ll fix them as promptly as we can), and you may find the odd note of inadvertent partisanship.

The national results are here, regions look like this, and as a sample, here’s the First Minister’s constituency page. All the constituencies are listed alphabetically here. For vote changes and vote share changes in the new constituencies, we’re using the Denver notional results from 2007 as the baseline.

In addition to finding mistakes, please do also let us know, if you find this useful, where you think we could take it next. Obviously doing historic pages for the three previous elections is on the to-do list, but that might take until the summer. Should we add each constituency’s regional vote breakdown to those pages? Should we ask all 129 MSPs for a short biog and have a page each? Should we try and do each and every ward ahead of next year’s locals?!

Who knows. Right now we’re a bit knackered and phase two is unlikely to start this week. But we hope you find it useful. Even if you don’t, we will!

Is it just me or are bank holidays getting warmer?

May 30

Posted by Jeff in Environment | 8 Comments

I can’t recall a more depressing read of a newspaper than this morning’s Guardian. I applaud the paper’s devotion of many prime pages to the latest news on global climate change but learning that greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly and the chief economist at the International Energy Agency has labelled it “the worst news” is galling stuff.

The failures of Copenhagen and Cancun are laid bare in the reports but no blame is apportioned because if global warming is everybody’s problem then it is also nobody’s problem. Governments can sit back individually and say ‘we’ve done our bit’ but if the planet as a whole continues to warm then someone has to take the rap or, better still, stand up and take a lead. It’s all very well branding yourself ‘the greenest Government ever’ but if the overriding objective is not met then it doesn’t count for very much.

I do often wonder if many in this world, with a seemingly burgeoning collective self destructive mindset, are not wilfully willing climate change onwards just to see what’ll happen. We go to see these ‘fin del mundo’ films in the cinema so just think how entertaining the real live show will be, assuming Sky News offices aren’t by a coastline. Except there’ll be no chisel-jawed Jake Gyllenhal ready to save the day with moments to spare as was the case in The Day After Tomorrow. That may be sooner than the decade after next but mass flooding and melted ice caps in the 2030s doesn’t sound like fun to me.

I even despaired at Chris Huhne’s short comment on the matter, an Environment Secretary that I am sure ‘gets it’ and one that Cameron will find very difficult to replace if Chris does have to finally resign over alleged speeding-related transgressions. He said “this is clearly an incremental process but the steps forward at Cancun show that the UN framework convention on climate change is capable of progress”. The urgency of the matter seems to be frustratingly downplayed while the timid, turgid progress at Cancun is cynically talked up.

There is action that the UK as a whole can take now and like so much radical change it is down to individuals to take responsibility. We are releasing too much CO2 into the environment with potentially devastating consequences and yet there is no urgent drive to reduce power consumption from what I can see. Every tv/shop window’s dispay/office computer network left on overnight, every light bulb switched on in an empty house to deter burglars(!) and every unnecessary drive to the shops just down the road comes with a little bubble of coal/oil burning above it and we need to reassess our actions 24/7 if we’re going to beat this threat.

Even a simple calculation from the Government based on how much power our 60m number ‘should’ be using compared to what we ‘are’ using would be welcome in order to concentrate minds. That calculation may be easier with a 5m population so perhaps that’s something for Richard Lochhead to consider perhaps.

Scotland may well have a greater claim to sitting back satisfied with its contribution given the ongoing development of a clean renewable power mix and the welcomely ambitious pledges of reducing carbon emissions by 42% and boasting 100% renewables by 2020. However, placing increased drilling for oil in the North Sea and road expansion in the context of today’s disturbing climate change news is something that the Government should be pressed on, and should be seen to be happy to be pressed on. More progress on reduced car use and increased insulation are also important in order to reduce power use now.

It won’t be enough though, and we all know it. Scotland and the UK can continue down the green path better than most but how does Salmond or Cameron go about reeling China, US, Brazil and India in? It can’t, not without the significant rebalancing of the world economy called for in this excellent article (in The Guardian, of course)

So are we at the stage where really drastic action has to be taken? Power quotas? A global two child limit? A truly eye-watering, behaviour changing carbon tax? For me that is the only way to reverse the seemingly irreversible, the business as usual, Capitalism-fuelled increase in carbon emissions that won’t slow let alone halt without the most radical of action.

We’ve got to try, it’s only the single biggest threat to humanity after all and it’s surely better than waiting for Jake Gyllenhal to turn up to save the world from burning with his smouldering good looks. Even if the latter is admittedly a little more appealing, epecially in 3D.

Will any Scottish Lib Dem MPs follow councillors into defecting?

May 29

Posted by Jeff in Parties, Westminster | 29 Comments

The past couple of weeks have seen several Liberal Democrat councillors switch allegiance to the SNP, no doubt partly due to disappointment with the actions of their former party at Westminster and partly with half an eye on next year’s local elections. In a UK context, they are not alone.

The Lib Dems difficult position is not getting any easier for Nick Clegg; his call for a more ‘muscular liberalism’ and objections outwith the coalition agreement won’t be accepted by the Conservatives and it also undermines his party’s stance on saying they had to increase tuition fees and increase VAT because it was in the coalition agreement. Why did Nick Clegg accept those policies but is now reacting against the NHS proposals when all of those policies were in the agreement? I suspect that will be the next circle the Lib Dems will have to square in the next few weeks, aside from dealing with Chris Huhne’s exit from Government of course.

The next Westminster election is probably still some way off, if the coalition does hold for the full five years then we have four long years to go. However, if any MPs are thinking about switching allegiance for principled or pragmatic reasons (particularly in Scotland in light of the Holyrood results), they are probably best to do so in the next year or two in order to avoid too many charges of naked opportunism, not to mention time to let local activists warm to them.

So which Scottish MPs might be considering the move?

Mike Crockart – Edinburgh West
Won a narrow selection contest to take the supposedly safe Lib Dem seat in 2010 but has since quit Government to vote against coalition proposals on tuition fees and watched on as the Lib Dems were wiped out in the Lothians in the Holyrood elections. A repeat result in next year’s council elections may well focus the mind for this young, up and coming politician.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Alan Reid – Argyll & Bute
In the past three Holyrood elections in this area, the Lib Dems have slumped from 1st (35% voteshare) through 2nd (32% voteshare) to 4th (12% voteshare). One coudl argue that the writing must surely be on the wall for Alan Reid even at this early stage.
Alan voted against the proposals to increase university tuition fees so is clearly not afraid to stand up to and against the party machine.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Michael Moore – Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale
Michael is the current Secretary State for Scotland but his distaste for the coalition was made known via a secret recording of comments regarding the tuition fees vote. Apparently “Tuition fees … [are] the biggest, ugliest, most horrific thing in all of this” so there is scope for further discord and not respecting party decisions. There is also currently a whispering campaign against Michael as a result of his intransigence in moving towards a more federal UK, which is Lib Dem policy.
Michael holds only a 1,489 majority over Labour from 2010.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Sir Robert Smith – West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Robert holds a 3,684 majority over the Conservatives in that rarest of constituencies in Scotland, a Tory/Lib Dem two horse race. I don’t know if the MP is an orange-booker or sympathetic to the blues but Robert’s grandfather served this constituency as a Tory and he is a ‘3rd baronet’ which, I don’t know what it means, but it sounds more Tory than Lib Dem to me.
Swinging allegiance just before 2015 from orange to blue would virtually cement re-election, if the local Tory group allowed it of course.
Likelihood of defection? Medium

Jo Swinson
Jo fought off a strong challenge from Labour in 2010 to hold onto her East Dunbartonshire constituency by 2,184 votes. The Conservatives and SNP were a distant 3rd and 4th. Despite the SNP taking near-equivalent Strathkelvin and Bearsden in 2011 from Labour’s David Whitton, this should be a Labour/Lib Deb two-horse race in 2015.
It is early days but given that the Lib Dems slumped to 4th place in 2011 with only 7.7% of the vote, one has to assume that the writing is already on the wall for Jo Swinson’s tenure as an MP. Crossing the floor to Labour is probably the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ Deputy Leader’s best chance of re-election.
Likelihood of defection? Low

Menzies Campbell/Charlie Kennedy/Malcolm Bruce
Rightly or wrongly, I view this trio as a mini-group of MPs within MPs. Similar political views and similar length of experience, they have invested much of their career to the benefit of the Lib Dems but these senior politicians are conspicuous by the their silence and, if one was to take drastic action, one has to assume all three of them would together. The age and stage of their careers probably means they’ll ride out this chapter of the Liberal Democrat story without objecting too radically.
Likelihood of defection? Low

John Thurso – Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Probably enjoys a strong enough personal vote to be too overly-concerned with not winning at elections any more. May also be considering retirement in 2015 having served three parliamentary terms since 2001.
Likelihood of defection? Low

Alistair Carmichael – Orkney & Shetlands
The islands have been Lib Dem held since the 1950s and Alistair was President of the Liberal Club way back when he was a student.
Likelihood of defection? Non-existent

Danny Alexander – Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Danny holds a 8,765 majority over Labour from the 2010 election which is a winnable margin looking ahead to 2015, even with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury being the poster boy for the Lib Dems, and flak jacket for the Tories, when it comes to cuts. Danny seems to embody the rural, pragmatic, intellectual wing(s) of the Liberal Democrats and it is difficult to picture the man with any other rosette on his lapel.
Likelihood of defection? Non-existent

Bookies continue to give money away on Scottish Politics

May 27

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood | 36 Comments

So the election is over, those #sp11 winnings have been collected and all Holyrood political betting is off until 2015, right?

Well, no apparently. I was pleased to see that there are still some odds available on the minority bloodsport that is Scottish Politics over at PaddyPower.

First up, the date of the independence referendum.

2011 – 16/1
2012 – 8/1
2013 – 15/8
2014 – 11/8
2015 – 9/4
2016(?) – 5/1

Despite James’ recent (controversial) claims that 2012 would be the ideal date, we’re probably safer to take Salmond’s steer on this, given the First Minister has a majority Government in one pocket and an SNP Presiding Officer in the other.

Salmond told members of the Foreign Press Association: “We will organise a referendum on independence within this five-year term. It will be towards the end of the five-year term. The questions will be enunciated in good time for that referendum to take place.”

So 2014 or 2015 looks like a certainty, particularly with Cameron admitting that Westminster won’t stand in the way and those dates making strategic sense for the Nats too. Consequently, Paddy Power seems to be giving money away here.

Were you to put £10 on 2014 and £10 on 2015, you would make a profit of £3.75 or £12.50. Despite the short odds, I reckon 2013 can safely be ruled out and the rest of the years are simply bonkers bets. So, yes, easy money. Get in there.

The odds on the result of the independence referendum, a simple Yes or No, are much less interesting. At 5/4, a Yes result is eyebrow-raisingly short odds and 4/7 is probably too tight to put big money on. The old adage that you shouldn’t bet against Salmond comes to mind here and I think I’ll leave this one be.

The final option for Scottish betting is Labour’s next leader, a curiously under-discussed topic thus far from what I can make out. Amazingly, Jackie Baillie has the shortest odds at 4/7 but anecdotal evidence from Labour members backs up my belief that picking Jackie would be a terrible move for the party. Fiercely tribal, unable and unwilling to work with the SNP and not very Newsnight-friendly, I just don’t see it happening. John Park at 8/1 is a very interesting bet and there’s even some value in Ken MacIntosh at 13/8, though if he can’t even beat Hugh Henry in a constituency battle then is he going to win the party leadership?

Speaking of Hugh Henry, the man is current holder of MSP of the Year, has demonstrated a highly commendable no-nonsense approach to the civil service and would take Labour in a refreshingly different direction to that of the past couple of leaders. At 20/1, I’d be crawling all over that bet (and probably will do once I can find my cash card).

Malcolm Chisholm at 12/1 is a fine bet too as, despite not having too many friends in the last parliamentary term, many of them have moved onto pastures new now and Malcolm’s support for minimum pricing may prove to the party faithful that he ‘gets’ what Labour has to do next – move away from opposition for opposition’s sake. With such long odds, one could hedge their position by betting big on as many as four different contenders. And there’s always Gordon Brown at 200/1; highly unlikely given there’d have to be a by-election before Iain Gray stepped down.

So there we go; a rival to the Burdz flutter on a Friday but bookmakers do tend to be happy to give money away when it comes to betting on Scottish politics and it’s great to see that trend continue even today.