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#SP11 – Malc’s last-minute predictions

May 5

Posted by Malc in Elections, Holyrood | 48 Comments

The following isn’t based on opinion polls… its my own opinion.  I’ve used some numbers, some intuition and some outrageous guesswork to come to the following conclusion.  By all means, rip apart my outcomes – we’ll only have to wait a day to see how close/ completely wrong I am.  But it is worth mentioning again – there’s no real methodology here.  It’s just one person’s (kind of educated) guess of how we’ll see Holyrood looking next week.

Central Scotland
Airdrie & Shotts – SNP (Alex Neil)
Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – SNP (Jamie Hepburn)
East Kilbride – Labour (Andy Kerr)
Falkirk East – Labour (Cathy Peattie)
Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)

List: 4 SNP (Linda Fabiani, Christina McKelvie, Richard Lyle, Angus McDonald), 1 Labour (Siobhan McMahon), 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell) and 1 Green (Kirsten Robb). [Order elected: SNP CON SNP SNP LAB SNP GRN]

Glasgow
Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
Cathcart – Lab (Charlie Gordon)
Kelvin – Lab (Pauline McNeill)
Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)

List:  5 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris, Sandra White, Sid Khan, James Dornan), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson) and 1 Green (Patrick Harvie) [Order elected: SNP SNP SNP CON SNP GRN SNP]

Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)

List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 SNP (John Finnie), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrogor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green (Eleanor Scott) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LAB GRN SNP]

Lothian
Almond Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
Edinburgh Central – Lab (Sarah Boyack)
Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
Edinburgh Southern – Lab (Paul Godzik)
Edinburgh Western – LD (Margaret Smith)
Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh – Lab (Bernard Hopkins)

List: 3 SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville, George Kerevan, Colin Beattie),  1 Lib Dem (Alex Cole-Hamilton), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 1 Green (Alison Johnstone) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald) [Order elected: GRN IND SNP CON SNP LD SNP]

Mid Scotland & Fife
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
Dunfermline – Lab (Alex Rowley)
Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
North-East Fife – LD (Iain Smith)
Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
Stirling – SNP (Bruce Crawford)

List: 1 Labour (John Park), 2 SNP (Annabelle Ewing, Douglas Chapman), 3 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith, Miles Briggs) and 1 Green (Mark Ruskell) [Order elected: CON CON LAB SNP SNP GRN CON]

North-East Scotland
Aberdeen Central – SNP (Kevin Stewart)
Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
Aberdeenshire West – LD (Mike Rumbles)
Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)

List: 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald), 1 Lib Dem (Alison McInnes), 2 Conservative (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne) and 1 Green (Martin Ford) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LAB LD GRN]

South Scotland
Ayr – Con (John Scott)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley – Lab (Richard Leonard)
Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
Dumfriesshire – Lab (Elaine Murray)
East Lothian – Lab (Iain Gray)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
Galloway & West Dumfries – Con (Alex Fergusson)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – SNP (Willie Coffey)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)

List: 3 SNP (Adam Ingram, Joan McAlpine, Aileen McLeod), 2 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graeme Pearson), 1 Conservative (Derek Brownlee) and 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume) [Order elected: LD SNP LAB SNP CON LAB SNP]

West Scotland
Clydebank & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
Eastwood – Con (Jackson Carlaw)
Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden – Lab (David Whitton)

List: 3 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Fiona McLeod), 1 Lab (Mary Fee), 2 Conservative (Annabel Goldie, Maurice Golden) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie) [Order elected: SNP CON SNP LD SNP CON LAB]

So, my 2011-2016 Holyrood Parliament would look like this:

And it would have the following regional breakdown:

 

And since we discussed it previously, should I be right about the election, there will be 45 female MSPs.  Our original projections – based on previous polls – made that figure 47, and we found a way for that to rise to 51 if seats went a particular way.  However, just with the way the predictions have gone, I make it 45 – which is still an increase on 2007 (albeit a minor one).

Thus – SNP minority, with likely support from the Conservatives on issue by issue basis seems to be what I think will happen.  But these are just my musings – and you’ll get some more later on – but what do you think?

A fork in the road for Scotland.

May 4

Posted by Guest Blog in Elections, Holyrood, Parties | 32 Comments

Our last pre-poll guest blog comes from the Greens’ co-convenor Patrick Harvie, standing again at the top of the party’s list in Glasgow.

So the end is in sight. After a long campaign and, for me, a tough four years of trying to make an constructive impact with a parliamentary group of just two, we’re on the eve of the 2011 Holyrood election.

Much comment has been made of the dramatic turnaround in the polls, from a clear Labour lead, through a period when they were roughly neck and neck with the SNP, to some apparently commanding poll leads for the Nationalists.

Few people would say that Labour has helped itself much over the last couple of months. Their campaign has been lacking in just about every quality which could possibly inspire people to put them back into government.

Of course nothing is certain until the votes are counted, but if the polls are right about the scale of the SNP lead (and the LibDem collapse) then the SNP might just be faced with some far more profound choices than they had to make in the last session at Holyrood.

In 2007 the SNP were given an extraordinary opportunity: their first chance to form a government. I supported many of the things they’ve done with that opportunity, and I opposed many others. But crucially they proved that minority government was viable in Scotland.

They did so in what should have been a very weak position. Fully 18 seats short of a majority, they had to find support week after week either from Labour (which was rare) or from at least two other parties. Their success rate owes a great deal to the abilities and straightforwardness of Bruce Crawford, but it wasn’t easy and on many issues it proved impossible.

But if the polls are to be believed the next five years could see a much stronger minority position for the SNP. If they lead a government which needs only the support of any one other party to form a majority, they will have a far more powerful role. But with that power would come responsibility. They would find themselves faced with a genuine choice of political direction, which arguably they have not had in the last session. So the second question in this election is about the balance of power, and the Tories have made it very clear that they hope to exert greater control over the next government.

Most SNP activists, I’m pretty sure, are resolute in their opposition to any formal coalition with the Conservatives, and the party’s rules against such a deal still stand. But even those activists must recognise that the government’s strongest informal relationship has been with Annabel in the blue corner. It has covered motions both meaningful and symbolic, legislation and amendments on many issues, all budgets, and policy development too… even if the Tories gave little sign of interest in the actual delivery of changes to drugs policy once the press releases were out.

Faced with the option of maintaining and deepening that relationship, or cutting it off to open up new possibilities in the progressive ground of Scottish politics, what will they do?

There can be no doubt that on charisma, on face recognition, and in a personality contest for the “top job”, the SNP are leading the field. But if the SNP do find themselves with a choice over who to work with in the next Parliament, they will be challenged to do what they as well as Labour have so far failed to do, and construct a serious response to the economic crisis which acknowledges the failure of the deregulated free market model which has been dominant for so long. The lack of such a response from political parties which style themselves the “mainstream centre-left” has been dismal, and it has been left to the likes of UK Uncut, the Robin Hood Tax campaign, and many in the trades union movement to begin the task.

If the SNP are interested in being part of that response, or even leading it in Scotland, they must look to an alternative balance of power in Holyrood. There is simply no prospect that it can be done by a government which is reliant on the votes of the UK Coalition parties to get through its programme.

So the change at the top of the polls over recent weeks is important, of course. But the change lower down could be even more crucial. It could open up the chance for a long term realignment in our politics, and a greater unity of purpose between centre-left and radical movements, if the will exists to see that happen. Or it could leave us with a de facto centre-right government in Scotland despite the overwhelming number of voters whose votes and opinions lean leftward.

What a difference 4 years make…

May 4

Posted by Malc in Elections, Media | 11 Comments

Remember this?

That rather crude front page was four years ago, and while Scotland’s (ahem) more quality papers (and also, the Daily Record) didn’t go quite as far as the Sun in their SNP scaremongering, the message was pretty much the same as it always had been: “We don’t like the SNP, we don’t like independence, we don’t think you should support the SNP or independence”.  Okay, so I’ve probably phrased that slightly less, what, filled with rhetoric, than they did – but you get the idea.  On the SNP’s side they were not.

Fast forward to 2011, and the media picture has changed considerably.  While most of the nation’s press spent the four years of SNP government attacking them, many have come out in favour of a second SNP term.  Okay, in some cases that support is qualified – at best – but its a different media landscape for the SNP, and one which they are not used to.  In 2007, they had the bunker mentality, the “world’s-media-is-against-us” thinking, just as they had for generations before.  But today they have the support of much of Scotland’s printed press.

The Sun came out for the SNP several weeks ago:

 

 

 

 

 

The Scotsman offers its qualified support to the SNP in today’s editorial, though they want Annabel Goldie’s Conservatives there to keep Alex Salmond on the straight and narrow.  This seems as big a Road to Damascus moment as, well… the original Road to Damascus moment.  Guess that’s why we use that metaphor.  The Herald too, provides support for the SNP in its editorial, though elsewhere it is more circumspect about the campaign and the promises of each of the parties.  The Sundays have led where their sister papers followed, with the Scotland on Sunday citing Labour’s “appallingly negative” campaign as part of the reason why they see Salmond and the SNP as better for Scotland.  Meanwhile, the Daily Record focuses solely on the apparent 50% of the electorate who remain undecided and tells them they should vote for Labour.

I’ve already noted my frustrations with the campaign – and several of my friends and colleagues have mentioned that they too feel that the lengthy six-week campaign has failed to inspire.  Last night’s TV debate, while better than what went before, did nothing to instil any confidence in the leaders’ ability to change the record.  Tavish Scott got his “police” message in up top, and then again later in the debate.  Annabel got her “common sense” and “I’ll hold them to account” point in.  Salmond was his statesmanlike self, though unnerved by a couple of questioners and Iain Gray was better than he had been… until asked about his Subway encounter, when the Angry Man took over and his comment about “pointless conversations” undid anything good he had done to that point.  All in all, the debate itself wasn’t exactly an edifying spectacle.

So where does that leave us?  Well, polls open in around 20 hours.  If the latest STV poll is to be believed, the SNP are headed for a landslide, winning 61 of the 129 seats – not quite a majority, but pretty damn close.  Labour are to slump to 33 (down SIXTEEN from 2007) with the Tories on 18 (up 1) the Lib Dems on 9 (down 7) and the Greens close behind on 8 (up 6).  I’m never convinced when polls show such wide margins – I think it’ll be a bit closer – but if the SNP’s vote comes out and Labour’s collapses as predicted, I’ll be eating humble pie.

I’ll get my finalised predictions (based both on numbers and intuition) out before polls close tomorrow, and I think Jeff and Kate are planning the same – then you can giggle at how wrong we are.  But just remember, the only poll that matters….

Not-so-sloppy seconds could boost SNP further

May 2

Posted by Jeff in Holyrood | 15 Comments

If you were to believe a lot of the campaign leaflets out there, particularly those that take you down the yellow brick road of bar charts on Lib Dem literature, it is just as important to be in second place when challenging for a seat than it is to have a decent set of policies to take to the voters.

It is not out of the question for people to vote for party X because they want party Y to form the next Government because they don’t want party Z in there. In these cynical times, tactical voting has never been so rampant.

So, with that in mind, I thought I’d do a bit of an analysis of who is where in the 73 FPTP constituencies of Scotland going into this General Election, seeing as how important it seems to be.

Taking a high level view of the lay of the land by calculating the weighted average of positions across each of the constituencies from the 2007 election, this gives you a feel for where each of the parties stand at the current time.

SNP is 1.85th
Labour is 1.93th
Tories are 3.09th
Lib Dems are 3.09th

(Note that this compares with the 2005 GE as follows:
Labour are 1.47th
Lib Dems are 2.53rd
SNP is 2.78th
Tories are 3.19th)

Most ardent fans of politics and elections can rhyme off the number of FPTP MSPs each party has but I’ll do it anyway. The Tories have 6, the SNP 21, the Lib Dems 11 and Labour 35, which is 6+21+11+35=73.

However, what about 2nd place? Which party is waiting in the wings more than the rest?

Well, as some may have already worked out from the SNP’s prime ‘1.85th place’, Labour are 2nd with 18 2nd placed spots, the SNP 1st with a whopping 43 2nd placed spots, the Tories have 7 and the Lib Dems 5 (4 of which are 2nd places to the SNP).

This, for me, is the reason why the SNP has such a great chance to record a stunning victory in this coming election. They are in 1st place in 21 seats and 2nd place in 43 seats. Do the seat projections for the current crop of polls take into account the tactical voting that will take place? The consideration that always takes place whereby many voters only decide between who is 1st and 2nd from last time around? If not, the SNP’s result may infact be higher than the already remarkable results that have been predicted since they are 1st or 2nd in 64 of the constituencies, a full 88% of all constituencies. The equivalent figures for Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives are 73%, 22% and 18% respectively.

With a dramatically declining voteshare and only a handful of second place spots dotted around, it is difficult to find a constituency where the Lib Dems have a realistic chance of making gains. Edinburgh Northern & Leith could be one place for the Lib Dems and Perthshire South & Kinross-shire is possibly a seat that the Tories could take. North East Fife and Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire are those rare seats where the Lib Dems and Conservatives are 1st and 2nd so deciding whether that will remain the case or whether SNP/Labour will charge through on Thursday is less easy to predict, something that I will conveniently avoid doing.

The Lib Dems sit 3rd/4th in a massive 21/36 seats which doesn’t lend itself to bar chart production. One can only wonder what graphic delights are taking place across the country. I suspect they are going heavy on the local policing pledge to fill that bottom corner of their leaflets.

Assuming (in line with recent polls) that the four main parties will score SNP 42%, Labour 34%, Tory 12%, Lib Dems 7% and applying the national swing to each constituency then the weighted average positions will become:

SNP – 1.43th
Labour – 1.90th
Tory – 3rd
Lib Dems – 3.66th

Labour will hold onto 28 seats, the SNP will be up to 43, the Lib Dems will have held onto 1 and the Tories will be on 1. Now, I don’t the above result will happen this Thursday but it does highlight the dominance that the SNP could potentially start to enjoy and the risk that the Lib Dems face of dropping into the dreaded ‘other party’ territory.

With four more years of an unpopular coalition and SNP candidates sitting 1st or 2nd all across Scotland, the Nats really could have two bites at the independence cherry over the coming years. A referendum in this coming term or an out-an-out majority from 2016.

Looking not so far into the future though, the above post serves one key message for me and that is that, if a significant tranche of voters have not decided who to vote for and if many of them tend to only chooce between the notional 1st and 2nd candidates, then the SNP could yet be runaway winners.

Pick an Alex Salmond. Any Alex Salmond.

May 1

Posted by James in Elections, Holyrood | 42 Comments

Motorway Alex or Renewables AlexIs Alex Salmond a progressive or a conservative? Has he run a centre-left administration or a centre-right one? The question still gets asked because there is evidence pointing in both directions. This election, if the polls are in the right, gives Scotland a chance to get either version. But voting SNP on the list would, curiously, be an abstention on that crucial question.

His instincts on international affairs are certainly more left than Labour’s or the Lib Dems. The SNP was clearly opposed to the Iraq war, and there has been no sign of a wobble over Trident either. But these are issues that aren’t decided at Holyrood, so remain tangential at best to this election.

On tax, despite the massive slew of propaganda from the SNP, he’s clearly a natural conservative. Council Tax is regressive, and freezing it saves the richest the most. An effective tax cut, it also hurts the poorest most, the people most likely to rely on public services. The freeze is funded, the SNP say – which means £70m was given with one hand while £654m was taken away with the other.

The £1.3bn of cuts which John Swinney handed on in his last budget also show the priorities pretty clearly, with housing, education and public transport all put under pressure to allow a continued road-building programme.

This might be mere electoralism, an effort not to scare the horses again with a Penny for Scotland, even though the need for additional revenue now is much greater than it was in 1999. But I suspect it’s where his heart lies – as is the desire to cut corporation tax and follow at least some parts of the Irish model, including a substantial programme of speculative borrowing if the Calman powers arrive.

On the environment, the 100% renewable pledge looks good, until you see that for the SNP it also means retaining all the climate-busting generating capacity for sale. I’d agree there’s a massive economic opportunity that comes with a shift to renewables, but that seems the only point of green energy for the SNP: otherwise they wouldn’t have rammed a new coal plant into the National Planning Framework.

And would an SNP administration have secured the backing of so many turbo-capitalists and right-wing newspapers if it were even vaguely left? For every jailed socialist pleading to be allowed to vote for the SNP there are five tax-cutting businessmen hailing the Salmond record. Not to mention the fondness between Salmond and the egregious wingnut birther and eviction specialist Donald Trump.

But the SNP is, contrary to popular opinion, more than just Alex Salmond. There are many genuine progressives in the party, not many perhaps amongst the Ministerial team, but there are plenty in and around the party who see the opportunities independence could bring for a genuinely fairer Scotland, with a more redistributive tax settlement and priority given to essential services, not 1960s style vanity infrastructure projects. It’s what Chris Harvie was trying to get at last week, despite his four wasted years as a loyal button-pusher. It’s where the outriders for a better nationalism like Pat Kane and Bella Caledonia come in.

Some of the polls suggest that the SNP plus the Greens would make 65+, with the usual media frothing about independence as if it’s the only issue our politics should be about. But all the polls also indicate that the SNP plus the Tories would make 65+, enough for a continuation of the unofficial alliance, especially over budget matters, which has set the tone since 2007.

No other party has voted with the SNP on every single budget vote, and no party did so more enthusiastically than the Tories earlier this year when the cuts had to be passed on. I like Derek Brownlee personally, and I hope the predictions that he will lose his own seat are wrong, but he has been John’s loyal little helper not just to annoy their mutual enemy, but also because this is a genuine meeting of minds.

The Tories know what holding the balance would bring them – especially if they come back as the only way (other than with Labour support) that Bruce Crawford can make a majority with a single party. That scenario will put the Tory thumb on the SNP scales, and I fear we will see five years of a deepening squeeze on public services, five more years where the car remains king, and where the dash continues for the last, dirtiest, most unsafe oil in Scottish waters.

There is another possible outcome – a strong enough Green vote to push the SNP towards their more progressive instincts and yes, to vote against them where they seek to put big business ahead of the people or Scotland’s environment. The polls show we could be heading that way. But make no mistake, the only plausible alternative to a Tory-tinged SNP government right now looks like a good result for the only out-and-out progressive party in the last Parliament: a substantial Green block at Holyrood.