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Nick Clegg – Who’s the Daddy

Jan 18

Posted by Jeff in Housekeeping | 9 Comments

Just because something is so patently a good idea and has been outstanding for such a ridiculous length of time, it doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t congratulate and indeed thank the person who rights that earlier wrong.

Therefore step forward Nick Clegg and take your bow for seeking to replace maternal leave with parental leave whereby either parent can take the ten months paid leave to look after their newborn child and give it the best start in life.

This isn’t the end of the story for parental leave of course – what about cohabiting couples who aren’t married? Should they have access? Should that exclude/include same sex couples? (and there’s no reason why they should be excluded). Should an employee have to work for 6 months/1 year/2 years before they are entitled to the benefit? Plenty of babyfood for thought remains.

However, the positives should be focussed on.

I can’t reference it, but I do recall reading that clear evidence exists that fathers who take extended leave to be with their newborn child during their formative years tend to stick around longer and the benefits that parental leave will mean for equality and treatment of females in the workplace are obvious. Any discrimination against employees ‘of child-bearing age’ (whatever that means these days) can now be applied equally across both the sexes rather than just against females.

The gender inequality to one side, there is something quite pleasing about the three party leaders (four if one includes Gordon Brown) all being fathers of young children and all having real life experience and an emotional investment in this issue. The ‘tone at the top’ can do wonders to change attitudes across a country, and goodness knows that large parts of this country needs attitudes to change, so it is gratifying to see Ed Miliband take his full paternity leave and to know that David Cameron makes sure he does the weekly shopping. We might need a few football stars to publicly do the same to get the message across more fully but political leaders are doing their bit and, amidst the cynicism and snide remarks, they deserve praise for that.

Politically speaking, this is clearly Nick Clegg’s policy and it is through these announcements that Lib Dem redemption may yet be realised. This won’t be the end of the ‘easy wins’ that the coalition junior partners will have accrued for the years ahead in return for assisting the Conservatives so resolutely and, like this policy, it should pay off. Labour had 13 years to act on parental leave and only started to far too late, the Conservatives (rightly or wrongly) are not typically associated with fuzzy, family friendly policies and the Greens, long onboard with these proposals and in many ways leading the way, simply do not get the press that would suitably reward them. This is cash cow territory for Lib Dem fortunes.

Stable families are the bedrock of society and I have seen many a father come back to work after a paltry two weeks of leave (one of which is unpaid) barely able to keep their eyes open.

With this flexibility in the benefits system, young families can thrive and business will benefit through reduced discrimination and an appreciative, energised workforce.

No complaints from me on this one – I agree with Nick.

Holyrood Poll – Labour on track for a 3 seat majority

Jan 17

Posted by Jeff in Elections | 38 Comments

The first major Holyrood poll of 2011 has provided the perfect opportunity for me to try out my new ‘election predictor’ file. The theory is simple – apply the change from the 2007 results for constituencies and regions to the constituency and regions poll data. So, for example, if the Conservatives received 20,000 Glasgow votes in 2007 and their share of the vote has dropped from 20% to 10% then they will now be awarded 10,000 votes in the 2011 d’Hondt formula. It is an approach devoid of human judgement and it yields the below expectation for May 5th for the following vote

Poll result
Labour – 49%/47%
SNP – 33%/33%
Conservatives – 9%/9%
Lib Dems – 7%/7%
Green – -/3%

Seats (party – FPTP/regional/total)
Labour 55/13/68
SNP 15/30/45
Lib Dems 2/6/8
Conservative 1/6/7
Greens 0/0/0

The tightest constituency would be Orkney which the Lib Dems would hold (over Labour) by only 48 votes and the tightest seat between SNP and Labour would be Dundee East which this polls suggests Labour will win by 173 votes.

The clear overall result is that Labour is on track to romp home with a remarkable majority of 3 MSPs. A clean sweep of FPTP seats in Central, Glasgow, Lothians and the West is the engine behind this streaking ahead of the field, a result that would see a return to the old status quo of Labour hegemony north of the border. Interestingly, the SNP would see an increase in MSPs, gain 2 FPTP Aberdeen seats (from the Lib Dems) and would make large gains in the regional seats. Both Labour and the SNP win a higher proportion of seats than their percentage vote share. (53% to 47% and 35% to 33% respectively)

However, even with the Lib Dems and Conservatives in apparent freefall, the SNP can only make minimal benefit with Labour taking the lion’s share of the moves in votes. So much so that Labour is now on course to win two regional MSPs in Glasgow.

While a Labour List MSP in Glasgow has seemed unlikely in previous elections, it does make sense if > 56% of Glaswegians vote for Iain Gray’s party. There are 9 FPTP seats and 7 regional spots so perhaps it is not worth advising Labour voters to vote tactically with their second vote after all.

The Greens cut something of a forlorn figure on zero MSPs but hopefully, in the absence of an election campaign, these numbers will increase as the poll date draws closer. Nonetheless, it must be concerning for Patrick Harvie’s party that there is no evidence in the above figures that a Lib Dem decline will equate to a Green surge, despite the Green party holding firm to many of the former cornerstones of Lib Dem philosophy. We saw in the Oldham by-election that the Greens couldn’t even overcome UKIP and the BNP despite there being a Lib Dem freefall (masked by Tory tactical voting) so it appears the Greens do not have their challenges to seek. Patrick himself misses out by 2,500 votes going by the above numbers.

In many ways, these results show that the election is in Iain Gray’s hands. If the leader of the Labour group can ‘seal the deal‘ with Scotland between now and May then a majority in the Parliament is within his grasp. If Gray does not make the grade, then that 68 MSP total will start to drop and it is anyone’s guess which of the SNP, Lib Dems, Conservatives and Greens is most likely to benefit.

There’s a long way to go of course but it’s a one-horse race and a one-party Parliament as things stand now…

All at sea with Alex Salmond

Jan 15

Posted by James in Holyrood, Parties | 31 Comments

Caledonia advert stillWith the Great Puddin’ O’ The Chieftain Race going on Desert Island Discs tomorrow, it’s prediction time.

First, the music. You normally get eight choices.

Will he go for late-night-at-a-Scottish-wedding mawkishness, or go for a preponderance of tunes from foreign parts to avoid the charge of parochialism? My money’s on the first of those, although surely not even the FM would go 100% Scottish on an occasion like this, right?

Next, the book. Actually, I cheated and looked this one up. I had guessed the Declaration of Arbroath.

Salmond does Guitar HeroFinally, the luxury. A lifetime’s supply of spices so he can keep himself in curry? A saltire to fly from a coconut tree? A wee dram? I’m going for Guitar Hero simply because I found the picture.

So is it all over for the Lib Dems?

Jan 14

Posted by Jeff in Parties | 34 Comments

The whisperings of the Liberal Democrats falling into 3rd place in Oldham East (& somewhere else) came to nothing but so, equally, did the whisperings of another Dunfermline West shock victory. Second place before and second place now, any suggestions of an electoral crisis, (whispered or otherwise) should surely fall on deaf ears, no?

The results of the by-election were:

Jan 2011
Labour – 14,718
Lib Dems – 11,160
Conservatives – 4,481
Turnout – 48%

GE 2010
Labour – 14,186
Lib Dems – 14,083
Conservatives – 11,773
Turnout – 61%

Beaten by 3,558 votes in a seat that they lost by only 103 votes before entering into Government is not great, particularly when that 3,558 would have been larger if it had not been for tactical Tory top-up votes. Indeed, the above results could be painted as a disaster for Cameron but it’s pretty clear that it was the Coalition vs Labour in this contest and Labour won through.

However, 11,160 saw enough in Nick Clegg’s party to vote for it and Labour did have one huge advantage in this by-election – they no longer have Gordon Brown at the helm.

So, fun as it may be to entertain, I’m not buying into this notion that the Liberal Democrats are all but finished as a force in UK politics.

There is still a sizeable demographic that don’t wish to see themselves as Tories but still feel underwhelmed and/or sold out by Labour either over Iraq, or just generally through the wasted opportunity that the last 13 years patently was. There is the Green party for this group but, in the by-election, the Greens picked up only 503 votes, a third of BNP’s and a quarter of UKIP’s. I’m not sure where that leaves the GPEW strategy of picking off Lib Dem support, or the Scottish Green Party’s for that matter. North of the border there is of course the SNP that non-Tories and non-Labour can vote for but the issue of independence remains sufficiently polarising that voting for the Nats remains not an option for many.

Many are predicting a disaster for the Scottish Liberal Democrats in May and senior members of the party admit it will be “difficult” but, with clear evidence that Tories are willing to tactically vote for Lib Dems, some potential gains suddenly come into play – Aberdeen Central, Argyll & Bute, Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh Northern & Leith, Ettrick Roxburgh & Berwickshire, Inverness & Nairn and Midlothian South. Not to mention holding the existing seats with Conservative support making up for the loss of distinctly left-wing Lib Dem voters.

Many will bridle at the thought of the Lib Dems getting away with selling out without any electoral redress. That’s not to say things won’t be difficult and that Nick Clegg won’t remain as a political bogeyman.

First of all, is Clegg so bad? Probably not but he has cashed his political capital in early to bring his party into Government for the first time since 19 0 cake.

However, no MP has crossed the floor, no big-name blog has hung-up the keyboard and no Cabinet Minister is going anywhere anytime soon. They are “glued to their seats until 2015” as Chris Huhne put it. The Lib Dems will be on the ropes for the next four years, and they can expect further by-election defeats during this time, but no governing party has won a by-election since the 1980s and who has more momentum, the boxer everyone’s talking about that is coming off the ropes swinging or the lesser-known boxer that has a standing start?

Furthermore, the Lib Dems used to complain that they didn’t get any press between elections. That can hardly be cited as a problem now.

Clegg-mania may yet rise again but if it doesn’t (and it probably won’t), a clean skin like Tim Farron can take over the leadership of the party before 2015 and benefit from the positives of his party’s record in power while distancing himself personally from the more unpopular elements. Some will not be convinced that the Lib Dems can roll over a new leaf so quickly and easily but just look at Oldham East & Saddleworth or Springburn East by-elections? Contests caused by expenses greed from Labour MPs resulting in increased majorities for the incumbent party. Does anyone really think Labour won’t boost its margin over the Lib Dems in Barnsley Central once Eric Illsley has resigned?

The lesson is, remove the tarnished personalities and the brand will live on largely unblemished. And the Liberal Democrats still have a strong brand to sell, proponents of AV or PR would be foolish to suggest otherwise unless they really want to move towards the ding-dong of two party politics and the polarisation of society that has left the US in such a parlous state.

Looking at the by-election result again, focussing on how the Lib Dems have split the two big guns of Labour and Conservative and now stepping back into the 1980s, this constituency was split into two – Tory-held Littleborough & Saddleworth and Labour-held Oldham Central.

In a country where support for the top two parties at elections dropped from 81% to 67% in only a couple of decades, perhaps we should remember that the Lib Dems have a lot to be proud of and a lot that we should be thankful for.

Not married. Not even dating.

Jan 13

Posted by James in Holyrood | 12 Comments

Our friends at the Daily Record have gone a little off the deep end today. We gave them a story that we’re going to oppose the SNP’s cut to the Freight Facilities Grant, a concern we share with everyone from Highland Spring to Aslef via WWF, and that we would work with Labour on this issue, not least because Labour MSP Cathy Jamieson has a very sensible motion up for debate at Member’s Business tonight.

With this move, SNP Ministers are saving just £7m, a sixth of one percent of the money they’re blowing an unnecessary additional bridge over the Forth. Yet all the evidence is this grant is exceptionally effective at shifting freight from road to rail, cutting emissions, helping business and boosting jobs. It’s an utterly perverse cut.

On this basis, though, the Record went for “POLITICAL MARRIAGE OVER RAIL CARRIAGE“, claiming cooperation on this issue hints at a Labour-Green coalition after the election. On one level, if we elect enough Green MSPs that any sort of two-party arrangement is even a possibility we’ll certainly have had an excellent night. Also, we certainly want to appeal to left Labour voters who know that Labour list votes rarely elect anyone, and, like the News of the World piece at the weekend, the editorial was a pretty clear message to those voters that a second vote for the Greens will be effective.

But the idea a joint campaign on rail freight means marriage is adding two and two to make an awful lot more than five. When SNP Ministers came to Parliament with near-zero climate targets, we worked with Labour and the Lib Dems to defeat them twice because we agreed with them, not because we loved them. When we worked with the SNP to try and win the case on minimum pricing, no-one said that foretold wedding bells. Being ready to back a Referendum Bill didn’t make us the SNP’s sweethearts, nor did voting with SNP Ministers and Lib Dem MSPs to abolish tuition fees suggest an awkward threesome.