Minimum Pricing – Down in One

Hague drinks the first of manySo for all the talk of 40p, 45p or 50p levels of pricing, of a £2bn scourge on our economy, of the legality of trying to fix our nation’s illness and of political posturing that has not always shown our Parliament in its best light, the radical change that our politicians have agreed on to win the hitherto one-sided battle against alcohol is to ban irresponsible drink promotions at off licenses and introduce a social responsibility fee. It really doesn’t go far enough I’m afraid.

Someone, somewhere has failed, but trying to look at the position as objectively as possible, I disagree with The Scotsman’s view that it is the SNP who has suffered “a blow” here today. Nicola Sturgeon can hold her head high and be confident that she is on the right side of the argument. The Scottish Government after all had the BMA, doctors, the police, nurses, community groups and whole lot more on their side. Sadly Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories were not amongst that number. The Greens, to their little-heralded credit, looked at the SNP’s policies, largely agreed with them and have been onboard ever since.

So who loses here, aside from the many who will continue to drink themselves into an early grave?

Well, the Conservatives cannot really be blamed for having a firmly held belief and principle that is diametrically opposite to that proposed by the Scottish Government. Their typical supporters and more libertarian followers will not be moved by seeing minimum pricing voted down.

For the Lib Dems and Labour it is a different story. There should have been enough common ground with the SNP for a deal to have been reached and Gray and Scott should really have been persuaded by the views of the BMA, doctors and the police, not to mention their colleagues in London in some instances.

Focussing on caffeinated drinks may have some merit but it is inviting judgement over the motives of the decision to prioritise this particular angle. Was it because this is where Scotland’s greatest threat is regarding alcohol or was it just a convenient way to avoid facing up to the persuasive arguments for backing the radical option of minimum pricing?

On May 6th we will find out to what extent Scottish political parties get rewarded for saying a largely uninterrupted ‘No’ for four years and preventing much about anything getting done. Alcohol is holding Scotland back, so too are too many of our politicians.

The Battle for Underdog Status

To get ahead in modern-day elections it seems that one must come from behind.

I am too wet behind the ears to know when and where this phenomena originated but I would start with Bill Clinton, the ‘Comeback Kid’. Seemingly down and out in New Hampshire in 1992, Clinton turned it around with calculated risks and used that momentum-gathering moniker to great effect from then on in. The same strategy has been used by Barack Obama against Hillary, Ed Miliband in the Labour leadership contest and Gordon Brown (well, Peter Mandelson) in the recent UK elections, with mixed degree of success.

As Scotland’s political parties shape up for May 2011, there appears to be a similar jostling for the coveted perceived second place going on. While Lib Dems, Tories and Greens quite understandably talk themselves up, there is a certain talking down going on from Labour.

This thought emanated from Iain Gray’s talk of an ‘elite’ (which he seemingly wants no part of) and refrain of being a humble teacher and it crystallised upon reading John Park MSP’s guest post over at A Burdz Eye View, seemingly a follow up from Labour’s election and campaigns co-ordinator on themes from Iain Gray’s leader’s speech at the Scottish Conference. John makes an imaginative comparison between Labour’s coming election campaign and the Spartan battles that were fought against preposterous odds by an outnumbered few. This is the same story of the recent film ‘300’ but don’t take that thought much further as surely noone wants to imagine the Shadow Front Bench in tight leather pants.

Any objective assessment of the May campaign would at least have the SNP and Labour on an equal footing, many would say that a press favourable to Labour, often slavishly fawning in its analysis, a UK-wide party machine that is used to winning and an electorate pre-disposed to voting Labour does not equate to facing ‘numerous arrows that blocked out the sun’, as the Persians did.

I should say that I may have misunderstood the metaphor, (though I don’t believe I have). Labour’s ‘fighting in the shade’ line may relate merely to knocking doors in the evening darkness over the coming Winter months, imagery that suggests a confidence and optimism for the battle ahead, but at odds with the ‘fighting against the odds’ overtures.

The question is, if Labour is adopting a strategy similar to SNP’s underdog ‘Rage against the Machine’ theme from earlier this year, then is it correct to do so?

Although I can understand the fuzzy satisfaction gained from supporting the little guy, I prefer to save that for sporting events or Hollywood moves. I certainly do not understand a politician wilfully painting oneself as that little guy before the eyes of the nation, particularly when your tagline is ‘Scotland deserves better’. We are, theoretically at least, voting for the best of the best into the First Minister role here and the person for the job should be adamant that they were right before, they are right now and will be right until kingdom come.

I personally am impatiently waiting to be inspired, waiting to be swept off my feet by a leader or party that is head and shoulders above the rest, that can deliver a Scottish confidence and can-do attitude, either on the crest of a devolved Scotland wave or surfing an independence alternative. I do not particularly want someone who shuns the elite, just wants to be one of the guys (or girls) and thinks they are on the outside looking in when, in reality, they are already a significant part of the establishment.

This surge in insurgent campaigns coupled with delusions of modesty seem to involve a mentality of taking one step backwards in order to take one giant leap into office, trading on an inferiority complex amongst the electorate where some prefer the plucky outsider to the current establishment, all other criteria being equal.

It shouldn’t be good enough. Confidence and personality should fill the First Minister’s office and it is perhaps ironic that the incumbent who holds both in overflowing abundance is being challenged by a man who, purposefully or otherwise, appears to have neither.

Killing is wrong… right?

In my younger, more radical days (hang on – at 26, can I really make the claim that I’m all grown up and “sensible” now? Jury still out…) I was much more vocal, and aggressively so, in my opposition to capital punishment. Cases like this one, though utterly horrific had me arguing in no uncertain terms that capital punishment was wrong, that no matter how bad the crime, state execution was simply not a valid means of punishing a criminal for their action.

Don’t get me wrong – I still don’t think it is right. Killing is wrong (though I can make a case for Margo’s End of Life Assistance Bill being okay, but that’s another debate). Whether it is a drug lord slaying a rival gang leader, a policeman shooting dead a potential terrorist or the state executing a prisoner guilty of what our American cousins would call first degree murder – killing is wrong. You don’t need a religious or theological position to agree with that – basic morality will do.

When I was in my early teens I vividly remember the Oklahoma City bombing, the subsequent trial of Timothy McVeigh and the morbid fascination I had with the American legal system which was inevitably and without any shadow of a doubt going to pass a death sentence on the perpetrator. I vaguely recall news reports in the week up to his execution stating the exact time that he was due to be killed. I remember that it was supposed to be held on 16th May (its my birthday – hence remembering precisely) but that it was delayed for a month (until 11 June – the day before my brother’s birthday!). Anyway, I took such an interest in the case that I knew exactly what time the execution would be – and watched news reports confirming his death. Even though I knew McVeigh had killed 168 people I did not believe that his death was justified, nor that the state had a right to end his life. The fact that he had been wrong in the first place didn’t matter – killing is wrong.

There are 4 broad arguments against the state being allowed to kill: morality (killing is wrong), lack of ability to be a deterrent (evidence suggests so), lack of certainty surrounding guilt of convicted and monetary factors (total costs of execution and appeals process exceed cost of life imprisonment without parole in the US). But for me, the latter three are secondary considerations to the first – that killing is wrong, whether state sanctioned or otherwise.

How many times have I used the phrase “killing is wrong” thus far? I count 6 (and a seventh if you count the question in the previous sentence). Do you get the feeling I’m trying to convince you of something… or myself? Because here’s a kick in the balls: I’m not convinced killing is always wrong.

Let me qualify that statement. I’ve always been more of a utilitarian than a consequentialist (and, indeed, hold J.S. Mill as one of my ideological standard-bearers) but I do have a Masters in Terrorism and International Relations, so here’s a flip side for you. If you could save 20 people from certain death (okay, I know death is certain – I mean a premature death via a terrorist attack) by killing one person you know is planning to attack, would that killing be wrong? If the state had known McVeigh was going to bomb Oklahoma City and shot him dead on the way – and in the process saving 168 lives – would that be justified? I think you could make a case for it (and I can hear the civil liberties types queueing up to whack me as I write this).

I’d still argue that killing is wrong – and you won’t get me to say otherwise – but I think you can justify this type of action. Look, I’m not saying its right. And I’m not saying we should give police new powers in this field, nor that security trumps civil liberties (despite what some might argue!) just that in some cases – perhaps when we can be almost sure that acting will avoid the widespread loss of life – that state sponsored killing could, perhaps, be justified. There, I’ve said it.  But this is a very grey area – things are not black and white here.

Now, I suspect there will be some responses pointing out my objections to capital punishment – we’ll never be 100% sure, costs involved, deterrence and, of course, that killing is wrong – and say that I’m being inconsistent, nay, a hypocrite! I see your point. But I do think I can hold both positions consistently – that killing someone to avoid large-scale loss of life can be justified but that killing them after the due process of law has been followed is wrong. Here’s how. In the former case, the death of suspect/potential convict serves a purpose that is directly related to the physical well-being of society (that is, the avoidance of terrorist incident and/or multiple fatalities). The latter is simply vengeance – an eye for an eye, the state attempting to “even the score” with the criminal. This will not bring back those whom they have killed – but in the former case it stops them from being killed in the first place.

I know its not a perfect argument. And of course there are instances where action will prove ill-considered and wrong. And, inevitably, those concerned with the human rights of those who could not give a flying **** about the human rights of those they intend to kill will scream bloody murder. And yes, that is what it is. But I’m not sure that we can’t – sometimes – look beyond that.

I know that’s controversial, particularly in today’s polarised world. I know what I’m saying condones what is some cases (Israel particularly) would be described as “state-sponsored terrorism”. And I know – and I believe – that killing is wrong. I just think – sometimes – it can be justified.

Just choose your cuts?

Caroline Lucas and Patrick Harvie at Conference 2010 Less than a month ago, Jeff wondered whether any of the parties would be brave enough to consider using the tax-varying powers of the Scottish Parliament. I held off commenting because I hoped the Scottish Greens would vote at Conference to back revenue-raising to block the worst of the cuts, and indeed we did this weekend, overwhelmingly so.

The UK Government, has, we believe, made the wrong decisions with their deficit plans and spending cuts. They are enthusiastically regressive in the detail – a return to the work-house? – and economically illiterate in their overall effect.

Greens don’t want to see massive deficits pile up and have taxpayers’ money wasted on interest payments, but neither do we believe the payback should be made by the poor.

A massive clampdown on tax avoidance, a Robin Hood tax, a one-off wealth tax on the richest, these are the ways in which a progressive UK Government would act. But we do not have such a thing, any more than we had one prior to May.

UK Ministers have three dimensions to consider. Revenue, expenditure and borrowing. Scottish Ministers have only the first two (which is probably a good thing given the perverse desire of the other four parties here to blow billions on the Alex Salmond Additional Forth Bridge).

Without significant borrowing powers for the Scottish Government, John Swinney can only look at revenue and expenditure. Yet the SNP have themselves ruled out revenue changes. The tax varying power is “impractical”, despite having campaigned for it to be used not so long ago as the old Penny For Scotland. Council Tax will be frozen too, despite the regressive nature of the freeze as well as the tax itself.

The Labour leader has done the same, telling the Today Programme two weeks ago that:

“the debate in Scotland is about managing the reduction in the finances that we’ll have available”.

Both the SNP and Labour are terrified of frightening the rightwing press who have cheered on the coalition, and neither party feels they can afford the other slamming them for some “tax bombshell” or similar. In Jeff’s post he said he thought the Nats would be the most likely to be brave, but I never believed that. Their political proximity to the Tories has been striking, as has their growing terror at being evicted from office having achieved not much.

Neither the Conservatives nor the Lib Dems could credibly take a position which criticised their London colleagues’ cuts, either. Again, Jeff had the Libs down as second most likely to take a progressive position: that struck me as impossible too.

Contrary to the Scotsman headline, Scottish Green Party conference didn’t pass a call for a 3p increase in income tax. We voted for a manifesto which would find progressive ways to raise revenue, within the limits on Holyrood to do so, including Land Value Tax and the Scottish Variable Rate. The detailed proposals will go through the party’s Council, but I’ll eat my hat if they recommend the full 3p.

Every other party in Holyrood is now apparently committed to passing on the Westminster cuts in their entirety. The only debates for them are about where they fall. Should they hit health or housing harder? Should capital budgets be cut for roads or schools? (not a hard one, that)

So here’s the dividing line. The election will be about the cuts above all, and the Scottish Greens will be the only party in the next election offering an alternative to them.

Here’s how Patrick had it yesterday.

“Labour and the SNP are just bickering about how to implement the Coalition’s cuts. This vote today means the Scottish Greens will provide the people of Scotland with a pragmatic alternative, the only alternative to those cuts. When the Scottish public voted in 1999, they voted not just for a Parliament but also for that Parliament to have tax-varying powers. The options are limited, but they are there. If they remain unused during the gravest threat to public services in the post-war era, when will they be used?

“In May, the public will have a choice. They can vote for one of the four parties who either relish the cuts or are too afraid to challenge them. But they will also have an alternative – to vote Green, to boost the green economy, and to protect the public services we all rely upon.”

I’m proud of our position, and I’m looking forward to fighting an election on this basis – who’s with me?

Incidentally, the March 2010 UK Budget said what the powers would bring in: around £400m a year in 2011-12 (pdf, see A9) for a 1p increase.

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Prediction contest – 6 months to May 5th 2011

It is now exactly six months until the big vote and Scotland is on tenterhooks as to what the result could possibly be. Will it be AV or not!?

I jest, of course. It is the destiny of Salmond, Gray, Scott, Harvie and Goldie that provides the frissons of delight across the electorate.

Well, again, maybe not, but the politicos are getting excited at least.

To celebrate, we here at Better Nation thought it may be fun to predict what the final result will be so, without further ado, here is our best bets:

Jeff
Labour – 48 seats
SNP – 43 seats
Conservatives – 19 seats
Lib Dems – 11 seats
Greens – 7 seats
Socialists – 1 seat

Result: Labour/Lib Dem/Green/Socialist ‘Progressive Alliance’

James
(Professional complications prevent James from playing – let’s nominally say a d’hondt-busting 129 Green MSPs)

Malc
Labour – 50 seats
SNP – 44 seats
Conservatives – 17 seats
Lib Dems – 12 seats
Greens – 5 seats
Ind – 1 seat

Result: Labour minority administration

Hope to see plenty of predictions in the comments, prizes may be awarded (Ed – on your dime, Breslin)……